Rethinking strategic stability in space through technologically dynamic deterrence model
By:
References
- Al-Rodhan, N. (2023). Preventing the Increased/Uncontrolled Militarisation of Outer Space. The Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Geneva.
- Berglund, A. (2024). The Space Development Agency and the Future of Defense Space Acquisitions. The Center for Space Policy and Strategy, El Segundo, CA.
- Bertolini, M., Minicozzi, R., & Sweijs, T. (2023). Ten Guidelines for Dealing with Hybrid Threats: A Policy Response Framework. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague.
- Carey, M., & McGillis, C. (2024). Navigating the gray zone: Reframing space strategy for contemporary operational environments. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 7(4), pp. 97–113.
- Cavaciuti, A., Heying, J., & Davis, J. (2022). In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing for the New Space Economy. Center for Space Policy and Strategy, El Segundo, CA.
- Clapp, S., & Evroux, C. (2023). EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence. European Parliamentary Research Service, Brussels. doi: 10.1007/s11695-022-06445-7
- Coletta, D. (2023). Deterrence. In: Mayer, S. (ed.), Research Handbook on NATO. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp. 222–236.
- Dugger, A. T. (2025). Space as a Gray Zone: The Future of Orbital Warfare. Modern War Institute. Available at
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/space-as-a-gray-zone-the-future-of-orbital-warfare/ [accessed 14 February, 2025] - Elefteriu, G. (2024). The Role of Space Power in Geopolitical Competition. Council on Geostrategy, London.
- European Space Agency. (2025). ESA’S Annual Space Environment Report. ESA, Germany.
- Farrell, K. (2024). Controlling the Final Frontier: Balance of Power as a Determinant of Military Strategy in Space. MA thesis, University of Chicago, Social Sciences Division, Chicago.
- Filippidou, A. (2020). Deterrence: Concepts and approaches for current and emerging threats. In: Filippidou, A. (ed.), Deterrence. Springer, Cham, pp. 1–18. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-29367-3_1
- Flanagan, S. J., Martin, N., Blanc, A. A., & Beauchamp-Mustafaga, N. (2023). A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
- Garretson, P. (2021). What war in space might look like circa 2030–2040. In: Sokolski, H. D. (ed.), Space and Missile Wars: What Awaits. The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Arlington, VA, pp. 6–60.
- Gartzke, E., & Lindsay, J. R. (2024). Elements of Deterrence: Strategy, Technology, and Complexity in Global Politics. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- Ghoshal, D. (ed.). (2023). Historical and contemporary missile development: Nuclear weapon states, regional powers and other powers. Role of Ballistic and Cruise Missiles in International Security. Springer, Cham, pp. 69–143. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-48063-8_5
- Gurantz, R. (2024). Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War. USAWC Press, Carlisle Barracks, PA.
- Harrison, T., Johnson, K., & Young, M. (2021). Defense against the Dark Arts in Space. Center for Strategic & International Studies, Washington, DC.
- Hersman, R. K. C., Williams, H., & Claeys, S. (2022). Integrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic Competition. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, MD.
- Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
- Jervis, R. (2002). Mutual assured destruction. Foreign Policy, 133, pp. 40–42. doi: 10.2307/3183553
- Kahan, D. M. (1999). The secret ambition of deterrence. Harvard Law Review, 113(2), pp. 413–500. doi: 10.2307/1342330
- Lambakis, S. (2022). Space as a warfighting domain: Reshaping policy to execute 21st century spacepower. Comparative Strategy, 41(4), pp. 331–369. doi: 10.1080/01495933.2022.2087419
- Long, A., & Green, B. R. (2015). Stalking the secure second strike: Intelligence, counterforce, and nuclear strategy. Journal of Strategic Studies, 38(1–2), pp. 38–73. doi: 10.1080/01402390.2014.958150
- Lucarelli, S., Marrone, A., & Moro, F. (2021). NATO Decision-Making In the age of Big Data and Artifıcial Intelligence. NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT).
https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/978195445000.pdf - Mazarr, M. J. (2018). Understanding Deterrence. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
- Miller, G. D. (2021). Preventing war with a warfighting domain: Nuclear deterrence lessons for space. Astropolitics, 19(1–2), pp. 33–61. doi: 10.1080/14777622.2021.1994338
- NATO Science & Technology Organization. (2023). Science & technology trends 2023–2043. Volume 1: Overview. NATO Science & Technology Organization, Brussels.
- New Space Economy. (2025). Understanding Space Policy: A Guide for Everyone. New Space Economy. Available at
https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2025/07/14/understanding-space-policy-a-guide-for-everyone/ [accessed 9 August, 2025]. - Oche, P. A., Ewa, G. A., & Ibekwe, N. (2021). Applications and challenges of artificial intelligence in space missions. IEEE Access, 12, pp. 44481–44509. doi: 10.1109/access.2021.3132500
- Pape, Jr., R. A. (1992). Coercion and military strategy: Why denial works and punishment doesn’t. Journal of Strategic Studies, 15(4), pp. 423–475. doi: 10.1080/01402399208437495
- Peace, N. A. (2023). Space denial: A deterrence strategy. Joint Force Quarterly, 111, pp. 58–66.
- Pražák, J. (2021). Dual-use conundrum: Towards the weaponization of outer space? Acta Astronautica, 187, pp. 397–405. doi: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.12.051
- Rice, D. M. (2023). Deterrence and Space Strategy: A Framework from the Study of History and Theory. Air University Press, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama.
- Samson, V. (2024). Space and Counterspace Technologies: Assessing the Current Threat Environment. Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
- Schelling, T. C. (1962). The role of deterrence in total disarmament. Foreign Affairs, 40(3), p. 392. doi: 10.2307/20029563
- Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press, New Haven.
- Secure World Foundation. (2024). In: Weeden, B., & Samson, V. (eds.), Global Counterspace Capabilities. Secure World Foundation, Washington, DC.
- Slingshot Aerospace. (2024). State of Satellite Deployments & Orbital Operations. Available at
https://www.slingshot.space/news/state-of-satellite-deployments-and-orbital-operations-2023 - Svoboda, M. (2022). The Application of Offensive Realism in Outer Space as a Fifth Operational Domain. Master’s thesis, Univerzita Karlova, Prague.
- Swope, C., Bingen, K., Young, M., Chang, M., Songer, S., & Foreword, J. (2024). Space Threat Assessment 2024. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.
- Tunsjø, Ø. (2022). Combining polarity and geopolitics: The explanatory power of geostructural realism. In: Graeger, N., Heurlin, B., Waever, O., & Wivel, A. (eds.), Polarity in International Relations: Past, Present, Future. Springer Nature, Cham, pp. 81–99. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-05505-8_5
- Vlasic, I. A. (1991). The legal aspects of peaceful and non-peaceful uses of outer space. In: Jasani, B. (ed.), Peaceful and Non-Peaceful Uses of Space. Routledge, London, pp. 37–55. doi: 10.4324/9781003111016-3
- Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, MA.
- Wang, C., Fan, Q., Li, C., & Xu, Y. (2024). China’s space science satellite series—A review and future perspective. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 38, p. 2024003. doi: 10.1051/bcas/2024003
- Yee, L., Chui, M., Roberts, R., & Issler, M. (2024). Technology Trends Outlook 2024. McKinsey & Company, London.
Language: English
Submitted on: May 19, 2025
Accepted on: Aug 24, 2025
Published on: Oct 10, 2025
Published by: National Defense University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year
Keywords:
Related subjects:
© 2025 Alper Ören, published by National Defense University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.