Comparative strategic postures through the TDDM lens
| Actor | SAI | RRM | TDSR | EER | CBES | Normative posture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Med–high | High | High | Moderate | Moderate | Strategic resilience + response |
| China | Very high | Medium | Moderate | Low | Low | Strategic ambiguity + denial |
| NATO/EU | Low | Medium | Low–mod | High | High | Normative anchoring + diplomacy |
Policy levers for adaptive space deterrence and their strategic functions
| Policy lever | Primary deterrent effect | Strategic function |
|---|---|---|
| Disaggregated satellite architectures | Deterrence-by-futility | Enhances resilience and redundancy |
| AI-enabled escalation prediction | Deterrence-by-foresight | Supports rapid, calibrated response |
| KPI-based posture monitoring | Deterrence-by-adaptation | Enables real-time risk assessment |
| Confidence-building mechanisms | Deterrence-by-trust | Reduces ambiguity and misperception |
| Reversible weapon norms | Deterrence-by-restraint | Clarifies acceptable operational boundaries |
| Public–private integration protocols | Deterrence-by-cohesion | Closes attribution gaps and aligns priorities |
Core structural contrasts between classical and space deterrence
| Dimension | Classical deterrence | Contemporary space deterrence |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic domain | Terrestrial (mainly land and sea) | Multi-orbit space (LEO, MEO, GEO, cislunar) |
| Actor structure | Bipolar, state-centric | Multipolar, including commercial actors |
| Weapons type | Kinetic, high-yield | Reversible, non-kinetic, dual-use |
| Escalation thresholds | High and visible | Low and ambiguous |
| Attribution | Generally clear | Often uncertain or deniable |
| Strategic Signalling | Declarative, symbolic (e.g. nuclear tests) | Embedded in orbital behaviour, capability ambiguity |
| Speed of decision-making | Deliberative, slow | Machine-speed, algorithmic, real-time |
| Legal framework | Treaty-rich, structured | Fragmented, with large regulatory gaps |
Operational KPIs for evaluating space deterrence performance
| KPI name | Definition | Strategic function |
|---|---|---|
| SAI | Degree to which assets and behaviour obscure intent (e.g., dual-use systems) | Assesses escalation risk & signalling clarity |
| RRM | System’s ability to maintain or rapidly restore function post-interference | Evaluates deterrence-by-survivability |
| TDSR | Alignment between technological capabilities and operational doctrine | Detects doctrinal lag or policy overstretch |
| EER | Probability of escalation in response to a reversible or ambiguous attack | Measures stability margin in grey zones |
| CBES | Level of transparency, dialogue and norm promotion with other actors | Indicates soft deterrence through diplomacy |