Critical Junctures, Reform Sustainability, and Judicial Performance in Portugal: A Longitudinal Study of Civil Enforcement Actions

Portuguese justice reforms achieved remarkable success in transforming civil enforcement actions between 2011 and 2014, with the Troika intervention reversing decades of systemic inefficiency. However, recent post-COVID trends suggest these gains may be vulnerable. This study conducts a longitudinal analysis of 408 months of civil enforcement data from courts of first instance (1991–2024) to assess reform sustainability in the post-pandemic period.

Using descriptive statistics, performance indicators, and nonparametric tests across five historical periods, the study finds that while COVID-19 itself did not reverse reform gains, the post-COVID period (2022–2024) presents concerning patterns: procedural balance has weakened, clearance rates have declined toward the critical 100% threshold, and incoming cases are increasing at a faster rate than resolved cases. These trends suggest potential erosion of institutional improvements that transformed Portugal’s civil enforcement system. Future research should determine whether the observed phenomena stem from factors specifically influencing civil enforcement or reflect broader systemic issues within the justice system.