References
- Afunts, G., Cato, M., & Schmidt, T. (2023). Inflation Expectations in the Wake of the War in Ukraine. ERGE-EI Working Paper Series No.745, CERGE-EI.
- An, Z., Sheng, X., & Zheng, X. (2023). What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?. Energy Economics, 126, 106950. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106950.
- Ascari, G., Bonam, D., & Smadu, A. (2024). Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 142, 103029. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103029.
- Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.
- Batchelor, R. A., & Orr, A. B. (1988). Inflation expectations revisited. Economica, 55(219), 317. doi: 10.2307/2554010.
- Borowski, J., & Jaworski, K. (2024). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the exchange rate of the Polish zloty: A fallacy of monetary autonomy? International Journal of Management and Economics, 60(1), 33–45. doi: 10.2478/ijme-2023-0026.
- Bracha, A., & Tang, J. (2022). Inflation levels and (in)attention. Working Papers 22-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9, 247–274. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24522418.
- Campagnoli, P., Petrone, S., & Petris, G. (2009). Dynamic Linear Models with R. Springer.
- Carlson, J. A., & Parkin, M. (1975). Inflation expectations. Economica, 42(166), 123–138. doi: 10.2307/2553588.
- Carroll, C. (2003). Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 269–298. doi: 10.1162/00335530360535207.
- Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591. doi: 10.2307/1910133.
- Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015a). Inflation expectations in Ukraine: A long path to anchoring? Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 233, 6–23. doi: 10.26531/vnbu2015.233.006.
- Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015b). Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7, 197–232. doi: 10.1257/mac.20130306.
- Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 24, 103297. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297.
- Danylyshyn, B., & Bohdan, I. (2022). Monetary policy during the wartime: How to ensure macroeconomic stability. Management and Financial Innovations, 19, 344–359. doi: 10.21511/imfi.19(2).2022.30.
- di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣ., Silva, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2022). Global supply chain pressures, international trade, and inflation. NBER Working Paper 30240. doi: 10.3386/w30240.
- Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081–1096. doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00207.
- Dräger, L., Gründler, K., & Potrafke, N. (2022). Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. CESifo Working Papers, 9646, 1–40.
- Hansen, B. E. (1992). Testing for parameter instability in linear models. Journal of Policy Modeling, 14(4), 517–533. doi: 10.1016/0161-8938(92)90019-9.
- Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Mortimer-Lee, P., & Sanchez Juanino, P. (2023). Economic costs of the Russia-Ukraine war. The World Economy, 46, 874–886. doi: 10.1111/twec.13336.
- Mankiw, N., & Reis, R. (2002). Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 17, 1295–1328. doi: 10.1162/003355302320935034.
- Markowski, Ł., & Kotliński, K. (2025). Energy prices and the structure of inflation in European Union countries. International Journal of Management and Economics, 61(1), 33–45. doi: 10.2478/ijme-2024-0026.
- Maurya, P., Bansal, R., & Mishra, A. (2023). Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: An event study-based approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 50, 1824–1846. doi: 10.1108/JES-01-2023-0003.
- NBU. (2022a). Inflation Report. Technical Report July, National Bank of Ukraine.
- NBU. (2022b). Resolution of the Board on operation of banking system under Martial law. Resolution 18, National Bank of Ukraine.
- Neri, S., Busetti, F., Conflitti, C., Corsello, F. Monache, D. D., & Tagliabracci, A. (2023). Energy price shocks and inflation in the euro area. Bank of Italy Occasional Paper, 792. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4849009.
- Reis, R. (2006). Inattentive consumers. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, 1295–1328. doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.03.001.
- Ropele, T., & Tagliabracci, A. (2024). Perceived economic effects of the war in Ukraine: Survey-based evidence from Italian firms. Applied Economics Letters, 31, 275–280. doi: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2131710.
- Russell, B., & Rambaccussing, D. (2019). Breaks and the statistical process of inflation: The case of estimating the ‘modern’ long-run Phillips curve. Empirical Economics, 56, 1455–1475. doi: 10.1007/s00181-017-1404-5.
- Seiler, P. (2022). The Ukraine war has raised long-term inflation expectations. Technical report, VoxEU.
- Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and prices. Foundations of a theory of monetary policy. Princeton University Press.
- Ye, M., Si Mohammed, K., Tiwari, S., Ali Raza, S., & Chen, L. (2023). The effect of the global supply chain and oil prices on the inflation rates in advanced economies and emerging markets. Geological Journal, 58(7), 2805–2817. doi: 10.1002/gj.4742.