Changes in the inflation expectations of consumers and professionals during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Ukraine and Poland

Magdalena Szyszko; Agata Kliber; Olena Motuzka

doi:10.2478/ijme-2025-0012

.blurhash-client-img { display: none !important; }

Changes in the inflation expectations of consumers and professionals during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Ukraine and Poland

International Journal of Management and Economics

Volume 61 (2025): Issue 4 (December 2025)

By: Magdalena Szyszko , Agata Kliber and Olena Motuzka

Open Access

|Dec 2025

Figures & Tables

Consumer inflation expectations in Ukraine. Note: During the post-war-outbreak period, the response variable had an average value of approx. 11.79. In the absence of the war, we would have expected an average response of 12.95. The 95% interval of this counterfactual prediction is [6.98, 19.36]. The causal effect (obtained by subtracting the prediction from the response) is −1.16, with a 95% interval of [−7.57, 4.81]. In relative terms, the response variable decreased by −3%. The 95% interval of this percentage is [−39%, +69%]. The probability of obtaining this effect by chance is p = 0.367. This means that the effect may be spurious.

Consumer inflation expectations in Poland. Note: During the post-intervention period, the response variable had an average value of approx. 10.49. In the absence of an intervention, we would have expected an average response of 8.27. The 95% interval of this counterfactual prediction is [4.75, 11.66]. The causal effect (obtained by subtracting the prediction from the response) is 2.22, with a 95% interval of [−1.17, 5.75]. In relative terms, the response variable showed an increase of +33%. The 95% interval of this percentage is [−10%, +121%]. The probability of obtaining this effect by chance is p = 0.091.

Professional inflation expectations in Ukraine. Note: During the post-war outbreak period, the response variable had an average value of approx. 15.11. In contrast, we would have expected an average response of 7.69 without an intervention. The 95% interval of this counterfactual prediction is [5.66, 9.65]. The causal effect (obtained by subtracting the prediction from the response) is 7.42, with a 95% interval of [5.45, 9.45]. The above results are given in terms of absolute numbers. In relative terms, the response variable showed an increase of +100%. The 95% interval of this percentage is [+56%, +167%]. The probability of obtaining this effect by chance is very small (Bayesian one-sided tail-area probability p = 0.001).

Professional inflation expectations in Poland. Note: During the post-intervention period, the response variable had an average value of approximately 8.98. In contrast, we would have expected an average response of 6.65 in the absence of war. The 95% interval of this counterfactual prediction is [5.35, 7.96]. The causal effect (obtained by subtracting the prediction from the response) is 2.33, with a 95% interval of [1.02, 3.63]. In relative terms, the response variable showed an increase of +36%. The 95% interval of this percentage is [+13%, +68%]. This means that the positive effect observed during the intervention period is unlikely to be due to random fluctuations.

Descriptive statistics of stationary differences in inflation and expectations and p-values of the Wilcoxon test and Snedecor–Cochrane F-test for equality of variances before and during the war outbreak_

Variable		Ukraine			Poland
Variable		Before	During	p-Value	Before	During	p-Value
Inflation	Mean	−0.0311	−0.0300	0.0073	0.1115	−0.2600	0.0850
Inflation	SD	0.9125	1.9607	<0.001	0.4673	0.2600	<0.001
Consumer expectations	Man	−0.0672	−0.1720	0.0157	0.1291	−0.2241	0.0196
Consumer expectations	SD	1.1763	1.8279	0.0060	0.5762	1.2493	<0.001
Professional expectations	Mean	−0.0322	−0.0369	0.0001	0.0765	−0.0972	0.0247
Professional expectations	SD	0.3329	3.1434	<0.001	0.1981	0.7512	0.0030

Results of the Chow test for a structural break at the outbreak of the war_

Country	Expectations	Test statistic	p-Value
Ukraine	Consumers	0.248	0.620
	Professionals	3.039	0.085
Poland	Consumers	5.272	0.024
	Professionals	13.064	0.001

References

Authors

Metrics

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2025-0012 | Journal eISSN: 2543-5361 | Journal ISSN: 2299-9701

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 14 - 24

Submitted on: Oct 7, 2024

Accepted on: Jun 8, 2025

Published on: Dec 30, 2025

Published by: Warsaw School of Economics

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

Keywords:

Inflation expectations,

Structural breaks,

Causal interference analysis,

War

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Business management,

Management accounting, financial controlling, cost calculation, investment

© 2025 Magdalena Szyszko, Agata Kliber, Olena Motuzka, published by Warsaw School of Economics
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Volume 61 (2025): Issue 4 (December 2025)

Changes in the inflation expectations of consumers and professionals during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Ukraine and Poland

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Descriptive statistics of stationary differences in inflation and expectations and p-values of the Wilcoxon test and Snedecor–Cochrane F-test for equality of variances before and during the war outbreak_

Results of the Chow test for a structural break at the outbreak of the war_

Paradigm

My account