Changes in the inflation expectations of consumers and professionals during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Ukraine and Poland

Szyszko, Magdalena; Kliber, Agata; Motuzka, Olena

doi:10.2478/ijme-2025-0012

Abstract

We use causal inference analysis with Bayesian structural time series modelling to identify the changes in the direction and amplitude of Ukrainian and Polish consumer and professional inflation expectations after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The study spans January 2018–March 2024. The pre-invasion period is considered a training period. The most interesting finding of this study is about the behaviour of Ukrainian consumer who did not change their expectations during the war. As a reaction to the intervention, we reported an increase in expectations for Polish economic agents and Ukrainian professionals. This study provides the first empirical evidence of the evolution of expectations during the war in Ukraine and a neighbouring country.

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Changes in the inflation expectations of consumers and professionals during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Ukraine and Poland

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