Table 1
Annual per-machine consumption estimates disaggregated from utility monitoring (May 2024–April 2025).
| MACHINE ID | CAPACITY (kg) | CYCLES/YEAR | ELECTRICITY (kWh/y) | GAS (Sm3/y) | WATER (m3/y) | COST/CYCLE RANGE (€) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W-5 | 10 | 2,121 | 680 | 359 | 212 | 0.21–0.29 |
| W-6 | 13 | 2,213 | 710 | 374 | 221 | 0.21–0.31 |
| W-7 | 16 | 2,161 | 1,387 | 621 | 367 | 0.29–0.46 |
| W-8 | 20 | 2,315 | 1,485 | 665 | 394 | 0.29–0.50 |
| W-9 | 25 | 2,051 | 1,795 | 763 | 451 | 0.35–0.62 |
| W-16 (pet) | 10 | 735 | 221 | 99 | 59 | 0.21–0.30 |
| D-10 | 23 | 2,123 | 1,030 | 1,560 | — | 0.45–1.15 |
| D-11 | 23 | 1,627 | 390 | 791 | — | 0.45–0.97 |
| D-12 | 16 | 3,928 | 825 | 1,115 | — | 0.37–0.62 |
| D-13 | 16 | 5,464 | 832 | 1,125 | — | 0.37–0.62 |
| D-14 | 16 | 3,962 | 832 | 1,125 | — | 0.37–0.62 |
| D-15 | 16 | 6,563 | 1,378 | 1,864 | — | 0.37–0.62 |
| D-17 (pet) | 16 | 509 | 356 | 0 | — | 0.28–0.45 |
| Fixed loads | — | — | 5,287 | 0 | 83 | — |
| TOTAL | — | 35,772 | 17,524 kWh | 10,888 Sm3 | 1,787 m3 | — |
Table 2
PESTEL-derived SDR derivation matrix.
| PESTEL DIMENSION | RISK/URGENCY ASSESSMENT | RISK LEVEL | SUB-RATE (%) | WEIGHT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political (P) | EU energy policy stability (RED III, ETS2, Fit for 55); Italian regulatory framework | Low | 3.5% | 1/6 |
| Economic (E) | Italian energy price volatility; gas-electricity price ratio; ECB reference rate 3.5%; SME access to capital | Moderate-High | 6.0% | 1/6 |
| Social (S) | Public health urgency (PM2.5, NOx); public support for energy transition; HORECA sector awareness | Moderate | 5.0% | 1/6 |
| Technological (T) | Grid decarbonisation rate; HP/PV learning curves; ecoinvent inventory update cycles | Low-Moderate | 4.5% | 1/6 |
| Environmental (E) | Social cost of carbon (€130–180/tCO2); climate tipping points; R32 refrigerant end-of-life | High | 7.5% | 1/6 |
| Legal (L) | EU ETS2 (from 2027); CSRD Scope 3 obligations; Energy Efficiency Directive (EU) 2023/1791 | Moderate-High | 7.0% | 1/6 |
| Composite SDR | Arithmetic mean of six equal-weighted sub-rates | – | 5.58% | – |
Figure 1
Monthly electricity consumption (S0 baseline) vs. PV production under S1 (12 kWp) and S2 (18 kWp). Arrows indicate net surplus (upward) and deficit (downward) periods for S1.
Figure 2
Global Warming Potential per cycle for washing and drying operations across all four scenarios. Percentage reductions relative to S0 baseline indicated above bars.
Table 3
Full ReCiPe 2016 Midpoint LCA results per washing cycle across all scenarios.
| IMPACT CATEGORY (UNIT) | S0 | S1 (PV) | S3 (HP ONLY) | S2 (PV+HP) | S0→S2 CHANGE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global warming (kg CO2 eq) | 0.8157 | 0.7200 | 0.3995 | 0.2730 | –66.5% |
| Stratospheric ozone depletion (kg CFC11 eq × 10–7) | 4.548 | 4.082 | 4.699 | 3.628 | –20.2% |
| Ionising radiation (kBq Co-60 eq × 10–2) | 3.085 | 1.923 | 11.790 | 1.728 | –44.0% |
| Ozone formation – health (kg NOx eq × 10–4) | 9.433 | 8.072 | 6.858 | 5.690 | –39.7% |
| Fine particulate matter (kg PM2.5 eq × 10–4) | 4.704 | 3.996 | 4.701 | 4.035 | –14.2% |
| Terrestrial acidification (kg SO2 eq × 10–3) | 1.208 | 0.984 | 1.236 | 0.984 | –18.5% |
| Freshwater eutrophication (kg P eq × 10–4) | 6.129 | 6.016 | 6.216 | 6.146 | –0.7% |
| Marine eutrophication (kg N eq × 10–4) | 6.718 | 6.710 | 6.673 | 6.665 | –0.8% |
| Terrestrial ecotoxicity (kg 1,4-DCB) | 7.408 | 7.188 | 6.492 | 6.374 | –14.0% |
| Freshwater ecotoxicity (kg 1,4-DCB × 10–2) | 4.542 | 4.176 | 6.997 | 5.571 | +22.6% ↑ |
| Marine ecotoxicity (kg 1,4-DCB × 10–2) | 6.338 | 5.865 | 9.163 | 7.420 | +17.1% ↑ |
| Human carcinogenic toxicity (kg 1,4-DCB × 10–1) | 1.293 | 1.240 | 1.051 | 0.976 | –24.5% |
| Human non-carcinogenic toxicity (kg 1,4-DCB × 10–1) | 7.601 | 7.107 | 9.902 | 8.400 | +10.5% ↑ |
| Land use (m2 a crop eq × 10–2) | 4.796 | 4.445 | 5.498 | 4.372 | –8.8% |
| Mineral resource scarcity (kg Cu eq × 10–3) | 2.219 | 2.081 | 2.717 | 2.200 | –0.9% |
| Fossil resource scarcity (kg oil eq × 10–1) | 2.848 | 2.524 | 1.111 | 0.820 | –71.2% |
| Water consumption (m3 × 10–3) | 8.557 | 7.213 | 15.322 | 8.284 | –3.2% |
| Ozone formation – ecosystems (kg NOx eq × 10–3) | 1.052 | 0.904 | 0.744 | 0.617 | –41.4% |
Figure 3
Stacked GWP contribution breakdown per washing cycle by emission source: S0 (baseline), S1 (PV only), and S2 (PV+HP). Values in kg CO2 eq per cycle.
Figure 4
Normalised ReCiPe 2016 radar plot for eight impact categories (washing cycle). S0 = 1.0 reference. Values above 1.0 indicate higher impact than baseline; values below 1.0 indicate environmental improvement.
Figure 5
S0 baseline impact source breakdown per emission category – drying cycle (18 ReCiPe 2016 midpoint categories).
Table 4
LCA results per drying cycle: baseline and PV scenarios with natural gas contribution analysis.
| IMPACT CATEGORY | S0 BASE | S1 (+PV) | S3 (+HP) | S2 (+PV+HP) | S0→S1 CHANGE | S0→S3 CHANGE | S0→S2 CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global warming (kg CO2 eq) | 0.8980 | 0.8354 | 0.3280 | 0.0840 | –7.0% | –63.5% | –90.6% |
| Fossil resource scarcity (kg oil eq) | 0.3269 | 0.3056 | 0.1275 | 0.0820 | –6.5% | –61% | –74.9% |
| Fine particulate matter (kg PM2.5 eq × 10–4) | 2.298 | 1.835 | 2.2965 | 1.9712 | –20.2% | –0.1% | –14.2% |
| Terrestrial acidification (kg SO2 eq × 10–4) | 5.784 | 4.318 | 5.9181 | 4.7115 | –25.3% | +2.3% | –18.5% |
| Terrestrial ecotoxicity (kg 1,4-DCB) | 3.888 | 3.744 | 3.4072 | 3.3453 | –3.7% | –12.4% | –14% |
| Water consumption (m3 × 10–3) | 2.119 | 1.240 | 3.7942 | 2.0514 | –41.5% | +79.1% | –3.2% |
| Human carcinogenic toxicity (kg 1,4-DCB × 10–1) | 7.187 | 6.842 | 5.8419 | 5.4250 | –4.8% | –18.7% | –24.5% |
| Ionising radiation (kBq Co-60 eq × 10–2) | 1.669 | 0.909 | 6.3784 | 0.9349 | –45.5% | +282.2% | –44% |
Figure 6
Normalised ReCiPe 2016 radar plot for eight impact categories (drying cycle). S0 = 1.0 reference. Values above 1.0 indicate higher impact than baseline; values below 1.0 indicate environmental improvement.
Table 5
Per-cycle GWP, annual cycle counts, and annual fleet-wide GWP reductions by scenario and operation type (S0 = baseline).
| OPERATION/SCENARIO | ANNUAL CYCLES | GWP PER CYCLE (kg CO2 eq) | Δ VS S0 (kg CO2/CYCLE) | ANNUAL GWP REDUCTION (kg CO2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washing — S0 | 11,596 | 0.816 | — | — |
| Washing — S1 (+PV) | 11,596 | 0.72 | 0.096 | 1,113 |
| Washing — S2 (+PV+HP) | 11,596 | 0.273 | 0.543 | 6,297 |
| Washing — S3 (+HP) | 11,596 | 0.3995 | 0.416 | 4,824 |
| Drying — S0 | 24,176 | 0.898 | — | — |
| Drying — S1 (+PV) | 24,176 | 0.835 | 0.063 | 1,523 |
| Drying — S2 (+PV+HP) | 24,176 | 0.084 | 0.814 | 19,679 |
| Drying — S3 (+HP) | 24,176 | 0.328 | 0.570 | 13,780 |
| TOTAL fleet — S1 | 35,772 | — | — | 2,636 |
| TOTAL fleet — S2 | 35,772 | — | — | 25,976 |
| TOTAL fleet — S3 | 35,772 | — | — | 18,604 |
Figure 7
Cumulative discounted net present value (r = 5%) over 30 years for three investment scenarios.
Table 6
Summary of economic performance indicators (r = 5%, 30-year horizon).
| INDICATOR | S1: PV (12 kWp) | S2: PV+HP (18 kWp + 6 kW HP) | S3: HP ONLY | UNIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total investment | 14,500 | 33,500 | 13,500 | € |
| Annual savings | 4,986 | 7,516 | 166 | €/year |
| Simple PB | 2.91 | 4.46 | ∞ | years |
| Discounted PB | 3.22 | 5.16 | ∞ | years |
| NPV (30 years) | 52,752 | 75,547 | –11,775 | € |
| NPV at r = 3% | ~72,100 | ~104,500 | ~ –9,900 | € |
| NPV at r = 8% | ~37,800 | ~55,200 | ~ –13,400 | € |
| Profitability Index | 3.64 | 2.26 | –0.87 | — |
| Est. IRR | ~34% | ~22% | <0% | % |
Figure 8
Tornado chart: NPV sensitivity for Scenario 2 (PV+HP) to key uncertain parameters.
Figure 9
Discounted LCA: cumulative discounted GWP for washing operations over 25 years (r = 5%). Shaded area represents cumulative GWP saving of S2 relative to baseline.
| Symbol/Abbrev. | Definition |
|---|---|
| COP | Coefficient of Performance (dimensionless) |
| CSRD | Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (EU 2022/2464) |
| DLCA | Discounted Life Cycle Assessment |
| DPB | Discounted Payback Period (years) |
| FRS | Fossil Resource Scarcity (kg oil eq) |
| GWP | Global Warming Potential (kg CO2 eq) |
| HORECA | Hotels, Restaurants, and Catering |
| HP | Heat Pump |
| IRR | Internal Rate of Return (%) |
| LCA | Life Cycle Assessment |
| LHV | Lower Heating Value (kWh/Sm3) |
| NPV | Net Present Value (€) |
| PB | Simple Payback Period (years) |
| PESTEL | Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal (analytical framework) |
| PI | Profitability Index (dimensionless) = (NPV + Investment)/Investment |
| PV | Photovoltaic (solar electricity generation system) |
| r | Social Discount Rate (%) |
| SDR | Social Discount Rate |
| SCOP | Seasonal Coefficient of Performance |
| SME | Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise |