A prospective model of the residential heating equipment stock for decarbonisation scenarios
References
- ADEME (Agence De l’Environnement de la Maîtrise de l’Energie). 2024. Energy Performance Certificate (EPC/DPE) database.
- ADEME. 2025a). Performance pompes à chaleur: réalisation d’une campagne de mesure sur des pompes à chaleur en résidentiel individuel.
- ADEME. 2025b). Base Carbone public emission factors database.
- Alibaş, S, Yu, S, Bagheri, M and Fleiter, T. 2025. ‘Advancing building stock transformation models: An agent-based approach and its application to Germany’. Advances in Applied Energy, 20. DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100256
- ANAH. 2025. Chiffres clés édition 2024.
- ANAH. 2026. Chiffres clés édition 2025.
- Aydin, E, Kok, N and Brounen, D. 2017. ‘Energy efficiency and household behavior: the rebound effect in the residential sector’. RAND Journal of Economics, 48(3): 749–782. DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12190
- Base Adresse Nationale.
2025. Available at:
https://adresse.data.gouv.fr (Accessed: 1 March 2026). - BDNB (Base de Données Nationale des Bâtiments)
– Millésime. 2024.
Available at:
https://bdnb.io/download/ . - Billerbeck, A, Breitschopf, B, Preuß, S, Winkler, J, Ragwitz, M and Keles, D. 2024. ‘Perception of district heating in Europe: A deep dive into influencing factors and the role of regulation’. Energy Policy, 184. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113860
- Borasio, M and Moret, S. 2022. ‘Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition’. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 153(111730). DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111730
- Capros, P, Zazias, G, Evangelopoulou, S, Kannavou, M, Fotiou, T, Siskos, P, De Vita, A and Sakellaris, K. 2019. ‘Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality’. Energy Policy, 134(110960). DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110960
- CEREMA. 2025.
Mesurer et expliquer les disparitions de logements en France à
l’échelle de la parcelle. Available at:
https://www.cerema.fr/fr/actualites/mesurer-expliquer-disparitions-logements-france-echelle . - CEREN (Centre d’Études et de Recherches Économiques sur l’Énergie). 2019–2024. Residential energy consumption statistics.
- Dong, J, Schwartz, Y, Mavrogianni, A, Korolija, I and Mumovic, D. 2023. ‘A review of approaches and applications in building stock energy and indoor environment modelling’. Building Services Engineering Research & Technology. DOI: 10.1177/01436244231163084
- Edelenbosch, OY, Miu, L, Sachs, J, Hawkes, A and Tavoni, M. 2022. ‘Translating observed household energy behavior to agent-based technology choices in an integrated modeling framework’. iScience, 25(103905). DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.103905
- Energies Demain. 2022. Enerter energy consumption residential model.
- FCU: France Chaleur Urbaine.
2025. Registre national des réseaux de chaleur et
de froid. Available at:
france-chaleur-urbaine.beta.gouv.fr . - FEDENE Réseaux de chaleur & froid (SNCU, Syndicat National du Chauffage Urbain). 2025. Enquête annuelle des réseaux de chaleur et de froid – Édition 2025 (données 2024).
- Ferrando, M, Causone, F, Hong, T and Chen, Y. 2020. ‘Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) tools: A state-of-the-art review of bottom-up physics-based approaches’. Sustainable Cities and Society, 62(102408). DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102408
- Giraudet, L-G, Bourgeois, C and Quirion, P. 2020. ‘Efficacité économique et effets distributifs de long terme des politiques de rénovation énergétique des logements’. Économie et Prévision, 217. DOI: 10.3917/ecop1.217.0044
- Giraudet, L-G, Guivarch, C and Quirion, P. 2012. ‘Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modeling’. Energy Economics, 34(2): 426–445. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.010
- Hediger,
C.
2022.
‘Rebound effects in residential heating: How much does an extra degree matter?’ , IRENE Working Papers 22-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research. - INSEE (Institut National des Statistiques et des Etudes Economiques). 2022. Population census 2022: ordinary dwellings.
- Ipsos MORI et Energy Saving Trust. 2013. Homeowners’ Willingness to Take Up More Efficient Heating Systems, report commissioned by Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Londres.
- Khuntia, SR, Zghal, F, Bhuyan, E, Schenkel, E, Duvivier, P, Blancke, O and Krasny, W. 2023. Use of survival analysis and simulation to improve maintenance planning of high voltage instrument transformers in the Dutch transmission system. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-25448-2_58
- Loi n°.
2021–1104). ‘Portant lutte contre le
dérèglement climatique et renforcement de la résilience face
à ses effets (2021)’. Journal officiel de
la République française, 24
August 2021. Available at:
https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/id/JORFTEXT000043956924 (Accessed: 16 March 2026). - Massachusetts Program Administrators, E. E. A. C. 2020. C&I Measure Life Study: Project MA19C02-B-EUL Final Report.
- Ministère de la Transition
Ecologique. 2026. Vers la 3e
Stratégie nationale bas-carbone (SNBC 3). Available at:
https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/politiques-publiques/3e-strategie-nationale-bas-carbone-snbc-3 (Accessed: 1 March 2026). - Nägeli, C, Jakob, M, Catenazzi, G and Ostermeyer, Y. 2020. ‘Towards agent-based building stock modeling: Bottom-up modeling of long-term stock dynamics affecting the energy and climate impact of building stocks’. Energy and Buildings, 211. DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.109763
- National Audit Office.
2024. Decarbonising home heating, Session
2023–24, HC 581. Available at:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Decarbonising-home-heating-HC-581.pdf (Accessed: 30 July 2026). - NIST/SEMATECH. 2012. e-Handbook of Statistical Methods.
- Pouget Consultants, ADEME.
2021. ‘Évaluation des consommations
énergétiques grâce à l’outil B2C2 –
Méthode de calcul’. Agence de la
Transition Écologique (ADEME). Available at:
https://www.effinergie.org/web/images/attach/base_doc/3217/CDC_fonctionnel_B2C2_vf.pdf . - Rao,
N,
Siam,
MRK and
Bond,
TC.
2025. ‘A critical review of heat pump
adoption in empirical and modeling literature’.
iScience, 28(1), art.
111666 , 6–8. Available at:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11780122/ . - Reinhart, CF and Cerezo Davila, C. 2016. Urban building energy modeling – A review of a nascent field. Building and Environment, 97: 196–202. DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2015.12.001
- Rekker, L, Hulshof, D, Kesina, M and Mulder, M. 2024. ‘Willingness-to-pay for low-carbon residential heating systems: A discrete choice experiment among Dutch households’. Energy and Buildings. DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2024.114712
- SDES. 2021. Enquête sur les travaux de rénovation énergétique dans les maisons individuelles (TREMI), vague 2020, ministère de la Transition écologique, France.
- SDES. 2024. Ministère de la Transition Écologique – Service des Données et Études Statistiques (SDES). Données Locales de l’Énergie.
- Trutnevyte, E, Hirt, LF, Bauer, N, Cherp, A, Hawkes, A, Edelenbosch, OY, Pedde, S and van Vuuren, DP. 2019. ‘Societal transformations in models for energy and climate policy: The Ambitious Next Step’. One Earth, 1(4): 423–433. DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2019.12.002
- Uniclima. 2026.
Bilan 2025 et perspectives 2026 – Statistiques de ventes des
équipements de génie climatique.
Conférence de presse,
6 février 2026 .
DOI: https://doi.org/10.66506/ed.23 | Journal eISSN: 3119-4044
Language: English
Page range: 5 - 5
Submitted on: Apr 24, 2026
Accepted on: Jul 31, 2026
Published on: Sep 10, 2026
Published by: European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
© 2026 Azilis Le Bozec, Bruno Duplessis, Nourallah Melliti, Pascal Stabat, published by European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.