Future cooling demand and economic viability of different cooling solutions in multifamily buildings in Sweden

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves in Northern Europe, making overheating in residential buildings an increasingly important challenge. At the same time, Swedish and European building-energy regulations emphasize low primary energy use and the transition towards zero-emission buildings, potentially limiting the implementation of active comfort cooling. This study investigates how current regulations influence the feasibility of comfort cooling in Swedish multifamily housing, evaluates the economic performance of alternative cooling solutions, and explores stakeholder perspectives on future cooling needs.

The study combines a review of previous research and regulatory frameworks, dynamic building simulations, a techno-economic assessment of four cooling strategies for a representative 100-apartment multifamily building in Sweden, and an exploratory stakeholder consultation involving seven representatives from housing companies, housing cooperatives, industry organizations, and cooling-system suppliers. Cooling demand was simulated under varying climatic conditions, solar-gain characteristics, and indoor temperature setpoints. Economic performance was evaluated over a 30-year period using a Monte Carlo-based net present value (NPV) framework with 10,000 simulations incorporating uncertainty in electricity prices and district-cooling tariffs.

The simulated cooling demand ranged from approximately 1 to 33 kWh/m² annually depending on climate conditions, solar-gain levels, and indoor temperature requirements. Among the evaluated alternatives, district cooling connected during construction achieved the most favourable economic performance, with a mean NPV of –0.64 MEUR, compared with –1.04 MEUR for individual apartment cooling units. The ranking of alternatives remained consistent across the Monte Carlo simulations, indicating robust economic advantages for early district-cooling integration. The regulatory analysis indicates that current primary-energy requirements leave limited room for introducing comfort cooling in new multifamily buildings without additional efficiency measures or onsite renewable electricity production.

The stakeholder consultation revealed a broad consensus that cooling demand in Swedish multifamily buildings will increase substantially in the coming decades. Respondents identified energy-performance requirements, primary-energy regulations, and economic considerations as the main barriers to implementation, while solar-integrated cooling solutions were highlighted as a promising pathway for future developments. The findings suggest that cooling is likely to become an increasingly important component of residential building design and that district cooling can provide an economically attractive solution where suitable infrastructure is available.