Figure 1
Spine plot of the proportions of each religious denomination in the Nordic countries, based on the ZA7570_v2 data file (Group, 2020).
Figure 2
Percentages of respondents in each country that answered “No religion” as their religious group (RELIGGRP) in the 2018 round of the ISSP Religion survey.
Figure 3
Percentages of respondents in each country that answered “I don’t believe in God” in variable v20 (“Please indicate which statement comes closest to expressing what you believe about God”) in the 2018 ISSP Religion survey.
Table 1
Frequency table of religious denomination for the groups ‘None’ and ‘Protestant|Main’ and their corresponding percentages for the Nordic countries, for respondents that were raised in one of these two groups, and whose parents also belonged to one of these groups, based on the ZA7570_v2 data file (Group 2020).
| NONE | PROTESTANT|MAIN | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 259 (19.43%) | 1074 (80.57%) | 1333 |
| Finland | 310 (31.09%) | 687 (68.91%) | 997 |
| Iceland | 164 (23.84%) | 524 (76.16%) | 688 |
| Norway | 236 (25.43%) | 692 (74.57%) | 928 |
| Sweden | 371 (28.04%) | 952 (71.96%) | 1323 |
| Total | 1340 (25.43%) | 3929 (74.57%) | 5269 |
Table 2
Summary description of the 2018 ISSP Religion survey variables (data file ZA7570_v2) used in the multiple comparisons between the ‘Protestant|Main’ and the ‘None’ across the five Nordic countries.
| ABBREVIATED DESIGNATION | ISSP 2018 VARIABLE | QUESTION LABEL | CATEGORIES | % MISSING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BELIEF.GOD | v20 | Please indicate which statement comes closest to expressing what you believe about God | 6 | 0.64 |
| BELIEF.PERSONAL.GOD | v27 | There is a God who concerns Himself with every human being personally | 5 | 0.94 |
| GOD.LIFE.MEANING | v29 | To me, life is meaningful only because God exists | 5 | 6.07 |
| BELIEF.AFTERLIFE | v22 | Do you believe in life after death? | 4 | 11.06 |
| BELIEF.HEAVEN | v23 | Do you believe in heaven? | 4 | 11.82 |
| BELIEF.HELL | v24 | Do you believe in hell? | 4 | 11.09 |
| BELIEF.MIRACLES | v25 | Do you believe in religious miracles? | 4 | 10.62 |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES | v9 | How much confidence do you have in Churches and religious organizations | 5 | 5.86 |
| CONFIDENCE.PARLIAMENT | v7 | How much confidence do you have in Parliament? | 5 | 3.04 |
| CONFIDENCE.COURTS.LEGSYSTEM | v10 | How much confidence do you have in Courts and the legal system | 5 | 3.14 |
| POWER.CHURCHES | v16 | Do you think that churches and religious organizations in this country have too much power or too little power? | 5 | 15.16 |
| REL.LEADERS.NOT.INFL.VOTE | v12 | Religious leaders should not try to influence how people vote in elections. | 5 | 2.78 |
| REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY | v56 | In [COUNTRY], religion is just as relevant to life today as it was in the past. | 5 | 9.02 |
| REL.REPRESENTS.PAST | v55 | In [COUNTRY], religion represents the past and not the future. | 5 | 10.23 |
| ATTEND | ATTEND | Frequency of attendance at church services | 8 | 1.83 |
| FREQ.PRAYING | v43 | About how often do you pray? | 11 | 1.18 |
| HOW.RELIGIOUS | v48 | Would you describe yourself as … (1-Extremely religious; … ; 7-Extremely non-religious) | 7 | 3.69 |
Table 3
Summary description of the 2018 ISSP Religion survey variables (data file ZA7570_v2) initially selected for use in the logistic regression models of disaffiliation from the Evangelical Lutheran Churches in the Nordic countries. The variables marked with an asterisk were transformed as described in the text prior to their use in the models.
| ABBREVIATED DESIGNATION | ISSP 2018 VARIABLE | MEANING | CATEGORIES | % MISSING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENOMINATION | CC_RELIG | Current religious denomination | 2 | 0.00 |
| RELRIN | v38_country | Religion in which respondent was raised in | 2 | 0.00 |
| CHG.BELIEF.GOD | v21 | Changes of belief in God* | 3 | 23.11 |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES | v9 | Confidence in churches and religious organizations* | 4 | 4.58 |
| CONFIDENCE.PARLIAMENT | v7 | Confidence in the Parliament* | 4 | 1.62 |
| CONFIDENCE.COURTS.LEGSYSTEM | v10 | Confidence in Courts and the legal system* | 4 | 2.06 |
| REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY | v56 | Relevance of religion today vs in the past | 5 | 6.66 |
| REL.REPRESENTS.PAST | V55 | Religion represents past, not future | 5 | 7.86 |
| NUM.AFFILIATED.PARENTS | v34_country, v36_country | Number of affiliated parents | 3 | 0.00 |
| ATTEND.11.12 | v42 | Frequency of respondent’s attendance at church services during the formative period* | 5 | 2.45 |
| MOTHER.ATTEND | v40 | Frequency of mother attendance at church services during the respondent’s formative period* | 5 | 4.56 |
| FATHER.ATTEND | v41 | Frequency of father attendance at church services during the respondent’s formative period* | 5 | 5.72 |
| SEX | SEX | Sex | 2 | 0.13 |
| AGE.GROUP | AGE | Age group | 5 | 0.26 |
| DEGREE | DEGREE | Educational degree | 5 | 0.72 |
| URBRURAL | URBRURAL | Type of living community | 4 | 0.81 |
| COUNTRY | country | Country | 5 | 0.00 |
Figure 4
Distributions of confidence in churches and religious organizations (top row), the Parliament (middle row), and in Courts and the legal system (bottom row) for the five Nordic countries (in five columns). The distributions for the religiously unaffiliated and the Protestants affiliated with the National Churches are represented by dark and light bars, respectively.
Figure 5
Correlation between confidence in Churches and religious organizations, the Parliament, and Courts and the legal system for the religiously unaffiliated and Protestants affiliated with the National Churches in the Nordic countries.
Figure 6
Chernoff faces plots of the medians of the 15 religiosity variables described in Table 2, for the religiously unaffiliated and Protestants affiliated with the Evangelical Lutheran Churches in the five Nordic countries. The association between the variables and the face features is shown in Table 4.
Table 4
Correspondence between the features depicted in the Chernoff faces plots and the variables described in Table 2.
| FEATURE IN THE CHERNOFF FACE REPRESENTATION | VARIABLE (TABLE 2) | |
|---|---|---|
| Face | Height of face | REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY |
| Width of face | REL.REPRESENTS.PAST | |
| Structure of face | REL.LD.NOT.INFL.VOTE | |
| Mouth | Height of mouth | ATTEND |
| Width of mouth | FREQ.PRAYING | |
| Smiling | HOW.RELIGIOUS | |
| Eyes | Height of eyes | CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES |
| Width of eyes | POWER.CHURCHES | |
| Hair | Height of hair | BELIEF.GOD |
| Width of hair | BELIEF.PERSONAL.GOD | |
| Style of hair | GOD.LIFE.MEANING | |
| Nose | Height of nose | BELIEF.AFTERLIFE |
| Width of nose | BELIEF.MIRACLES | |
| Ears | Width of ear | BELIEF.HEAVEN |
| Height of ear | BELIEF.HELL | |
Table 5
Group comparison letters obtained from the adjusted p-value matrices for the variables BELIEF.GOD, ATTEND, and CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES, obtained in the Conover-Iman multiple comparisons tests for the ‘None’ and ‘Protestant|Main.’ Groups sharing a letter on a variable are considered similar on that variable.
| DENMARK | FINLAND | ICELAND | NORWAY | SWEDEN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | |||||
| BELIEF.GOD | a | b | a | a | a |
| BELIEF.AFTERLIFE | ab | c | cd | a | bd |
| ATTEND | a | b | ab | a | a |
| HOW.RELIGIOUS | a | b | ab | ab | ab |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES | ab | a | c | a | b |
| POWER.CHURCHES | ab | ac | c | ab | b |
| REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY | a | b | a | b | b |
| Protestant|Main | |||||
| BELIEF.GOD | E | F | F | G | H |
| BELIEF.AFTERLIFE | E | F | G | H | E |
| ATTEND | E | F | F | G | H |
| HOW.RELIGIOUS | E | F | G | F | E |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES | E | F | G | H | G |
| POWER.CHURCHES | E | F | EF | EF | E |
| REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY | E | FG | F | G | F |
Figure 7
Correlation structure of the ordinal predictors initially selected for the logistic regression models.
Table 6
Coefficients (B) and their standard errors (SE) and 95% confidence intervals, odds ratios (Exp(B)) and their 95% confidence intervals, and p-values obtained in the logistic regression model without the country as control variable. p-value: < 0.1 (.); < 0.05 (*); < 0.01 (**); < 0.001 (***).
| B | SE | (2.5%, | 97.5%) | EXP(B) | (2.5%, | 97.5%) | p | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –2.930 | *** | 0.348 | (–3.635, | –2.225) | 0.053 | (0.026, | 0.108) | < 0.001 |
| CHG.BELIEF.GOD | |||||||||
| Stopped | 0.477 | *** | 0.115 | (0.244, | 0.710) | 1.611 | (1.276, | 2.034) | < 0.001 |
| Started | –0.585 | . | 0.340 | (–1.272, | 0.103) | 0.557 | (0.280, | 1.108) | 0.085 |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES | |||||||||
| NoneAtAll | 1.791 | *** | 0.157 | (1.474, | 2.108) | 5.995 | (4.367, | 8.232) | < 0.001 |
| VeryLittle | 0.850 | *** | 0.127 | (0.593, | 1.108) | 2.340 | (1.809, | 3.028) | < 0.001 |
| GreatDealOf|Complete | –0.688 | *** | 0.189 | (–1.071, | –0.306) | 0.503 | (0.343, | 0.736) | < 0.001 |
| CONFIDENCE.PARLIAMENT | |||||||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.035 | 0.207 | (–0.384, | 0.454) | 1.036 | (0.681, | 1.575) | 0.864 | |
| VeryLittle | 0.027 | 0.144 | (–0.264, | 0.318) | 1.027 | (0.768, | 1.374) | 0.852 | |
| GreatDealOf|Complete | 0.364 | ** | 0.129 | (0.102, | 0.625) | 1.439 | (1.107, | 1.868) | 0.005 |
| CONFIDENCE.COURTS.LEGSYSTEM | |||||||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.056 | 0.287 | (–0.525, | 0.638) | 1.058 | (0.592, | 1.893) | 0.844 | |
| VeryLittle | –0.210 | 0.196 | (–0.608, | 0.187) | 0.811 | (0.544, | 1.206) | 0.284 | |
| GreatDealOf|Complete | –0.002 | 0.134 | (–0.274, | 0.270) | 0.998 | (0.760, | 1.310) | 0.988 | |
| REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY | |||||||||
| StronglyAgree | –0.207 | 0.344 | (–0.904, | 0.489) | 0.813 | (0.405, | 1.631) | 0.547 | |
| Agree | –0.343 | 0.218 | (–0.784, | 0.098) | 0.710 | (0.457, | 1.103) | 0.115 | |
| Disagree | 0.003 | 0.159 | (–0.319, | 0.325) | 1.003 | (0.727, | 1.384) | 0.985 | |
| StronglyDisagree | 0.361 | * | 0.179 | (–0.002, | 0.723) | 1.435 | (0.998, | 2.061) | 0.044 |
| REL.REPRESENTS.PAST | |||||||||
| StronglyAgree | 0.161 | 0.179 | (–0.202, | 0.524) | 1.175 | (0.817, | 1.689) | 0.369 | |
| Agree | –0.101 | 0.134 | (–0.372, | 0.170) | 0.904 | (0.689, | 1.185) | 0.450 | |
| Disagree | –0.440 | * | 0.176 | (–0.796, | –0.083) | 0.644 | (0.451, | 0.920) | 0.012 |
| StronglyDisagree | –0.914 | ** | 0.339 | (–1.601, | –0.227) | 0.401 | (0.202, | 0.797) | 0.007 |
| NUM.UNAFFILIATED.PARENTS | |||||||||
| 1 | 0.759 | *** | 0.198 | (0.357, | 1.161) | 2.136 | (1.429, | 3.193) | < 0.001 |
| 0 | 0.788 | . | 0.418 | (–0.058, | 1.634) | 2.199 | (0.944, | 5.124) | 0.059 |
| ATTEND.11.12 | |||||||||
| Never | 0.510 | *** | 0.133 | (0.242, | 0.779) | 1.665 | (1.274, | 2.179) | < 0.001 |
| LessThanYearly | 0.318 | * | 0.128 | (0.059, | 0.577) | 1.374 | (1.061, | 1.781) | 0.013 |
| Monthly | –0.612 | * | 0.292 | (–1.202, | –0.022) | 0.542 | (0.301, | 0.978) | 0.036 |
| Weekly | –0.153 | 0.316 | (–0.793, | 0.486) | 0.858 | (0.452, | 1.626) | 0.628 | |
| SEX | |||||||||
| Female | –0.176 | . | 0.104 | (–0.387, | 0.035) | 0.839 | (0.679, | 1.036) | 0.091 |
| AGE.GROUP | |||||||||
| 25–44 | 0.865 | *** | 0.233 | (0.394, | 1.336) | 2.375 | (1.483, | 3.804) | < 0.001 |
| 45–64 | 0.688 | ** | 0.229 | (0.223, | 1.152) | 1.990 | (1.250, | 3.165) | 0.003 |
| 65–74 | 0.836 | ** | 0.245 | (0.339, | 1.332) | 2.307 | (1.404, | 3.789) | 0.001 |
| 75+ | 0.442 | 0.349 | (–0.264, | 1.149) | 1.556 | (0.768, | 3.155) | 0.205 | |
| DEGREE | |||||||||
| None/Lowest | –0.672 | 0.514 | (–1.712, | 0.367) | 0.511 | (0.181, | 1.443) | 0.191 | |
| Secondary | 0.220 | 0.177 | (–0.139, | 0.578) | 1.246 | (0.870, | 1.782) | 0.214 | |
| LowerTertiary | –0.065 | 0.179 | (–0.427, | 0.297) | 0.937 | (0.652, | 1.346) | 0.717 | |
| UpperTertiary | 0.250 | 0.183 | (–0.120, | 0.620) | 1.284 | (0.887, | 1.859) | 0.171 | |
| URBRURAL | |||||||||
| Farm | –0.030 | 0.198 | (–0.430, | 0.370) | 0.970 | (0.651, | 1.448) | 0.878 | |
| CountryVillage | –0.216 | 0.168 | (–0.556, | 0.125) | 0.806 | (0.573, | 1.133) | 0.199 | |
| OutskirtsBigCity | 0.190 | 0.147 | (–0.108, | 0.488) | 1.209 | (0.898, | 1.629) | 0.197 | |
| BigCity | 0.307 | * | 0.141 | (0.020, | 0.593) | 1.359 | (1.020, | 1.809) | 0.030 |
[i] N = 3184 D = 2504.2 df = 39 AIC = 2582.2 Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 = 0.310.
Reference categories: CHG.BELIEF.GOD – No change; CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES – Some confidence; CONFIDENCE.PARLIAMENT – Some confidence; CONFIDENCE.COURTS.LEGSYSTEM – Some confidence; REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY – Neither agree nor disagree; REL.REPRESENTS.PAST – Neither agree nor disagree; NUM.AFFILIATED.PARENTS – 2; ATTEND.11.12 – Yearly; SEX – Male; AGE.GROUP – 0–24; DEGREE – Post secondary; URBRURAL – Town/Small city.
Table 7
Coefficients (B) and their standard errors (SE) and 95% confidence intervals, odds ratios (Exp(B)) and their 95% confidence intervals, and p-values obtained in the logistic regression model with the country as an additional control variable. p-value: < 0.1 (.); < 0.05 (*); < 0.01 (**); < 0.001 (***).
| B | SE | (2.5%, | 97.5%) | EXP(B) | (2.5%, | 97.5%) | p | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –3.571 | *** | 0.372 | (–4.323, | –2.820) | 0.028 | (0.013, | 0.060) | < 0.001 |
| CHG.BELIEF.GOD | |||||||||
| Stopped | 0.465 | *** | 0.118 | (0.226, | 0.703) | 1.592 | (1.254, | 2.020) | < 0.001 |
| Started | –0.506 | 0.348 | (–1.209, | 0.196) | 0.603 | (0.298, | 1.217) | 0.146 | |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES | |||||||||
| NoneAtAll | 1.750 | *** | 0.161 | (1.426, | 2.074) | 5.755 | (4.162, | 7.957) | < 0.001 |
| VeryLittle | 0.827 | *** | 0.130 | (0.565, | 1.090) | 2.286 | (1.759, | 2.974) | < 0.001 |
| GreatDealOf|Complete | –0.750 | *** | 0.193 | (–1.139, | –0.361) | 0.472 | (0.320, | 0.697) | < 0.001 |
| CONFIDENCE.PARLIAMENT | |||||||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.066 | 0.210 | (–0.359, | 0.491) | 1.068 | (0.698, | 1.634) | 0.753 | |
| VeryLittle | 0.076 | 0.147 | (–0.221, | 0.373) | 1.079 | (0.802, | 1.452) | 0.605 | |
| GreatDealOf|Complete | 0.268 | * | 0.136 | (–0.006, | 0.542) | 1.307 | (0.994, | 1.719) | 0.048 |
| CONFIDENCE.COURTS.LEGSYSTEM | |||||||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.030 | 0.295 | (–0.565, | 0.626) | 1.030 | (0.568, | 1.870) | 0.918 | |
| VeryLittle | –0.179 | 0.199 | (–0.581, | 0.223) | 0.836 | (0.559, | 1.250) | 0.369 | |
| GreatDealOf|Complete | 0.023 | 0.140 | (–0.260, | 0.307) | 1.023 | (0.771, | 1.359) | 0.869 | |
| REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY | |||||||||
| StronglyAgree | –0.130 | 0.352 | (–0.840, | 0.579) | 0.878 | (0.432, | 1.784) | 0.711 | |
| Agree | –0.343 | 0.221 | (–0.789, | 0.103) | 0.710 | (0.454, | 1.108) | 0.121 | |
| Disagree | –0.057 | 0.162 | (–0.384, | 0.270) | 0.945 | (0.681, | 1.310) | 0.724 | |
| StronglyDisagree | 0.485 | ** | 0.184 | (0.113, | 0.856) | 1.624 | (1.120, | 2.354) | 0.008 |
| REL.REPRESENTS.PAST | |||||||||
| StronglyAgree | 0.237 | 0.184 | (–0.134, | 0.608) | 1.267 | (0.875, | 1.837) | 0.197 | |
| Agree | –0.074 | 0.136 | (–0.348, | 0.201) | 0.929 | (0.706, | 1.223) | 0.587 | |
| Disagree | –0.460 | * | 0.179 | (–0.821, | –0.099) | 0.631 | (0.440, | 0.906) | 0.010 |
| StronglyDisagree | –0.878 | * | 0.351 | (–1.586, | –0.169) | 0.416 | (0.205, | 0.845) | 0.012 |
| NUM.AFFILIATED.PARENTS | |||||||||
| 1 | 0.829 | *** | 0.201 | (0.423, | 1.236) | 2.291 | (1.527, | 3.442) | < 0.001 |
| 0 | 0.978 | * | 0.432 | (0.106, | 1.849) | 2.659 | (1.112, | 6.353) | 0.024 |
| ATTEND.11.12 | |||||||||
| Never | 0.544 | *** | 0.138 | (0.266, | 0.822) | 1.723 | (1.305, | 2.275) | < 0.001 |
| LessThanYearly | 0.335 | * | 0.132 | (0.068, | 0.601) | 1.398 | (1.070, | 1.824) | 0.011 |
| Monthly | –0.522 | . | 0.293 | (–1.115, | 0.070) | 0.593 | (0.328, | 1.073) | 0.075 |
| Weekly | –0.064 | 0.314 | (–0.699, | 0.570) | 0.938 | (0.497, | 1.768) | 0.838 | |
| SEX | |||||||||
| Female | –0.261 | * | 0.107 | (–0.476, | –0.046) | 0.770 | (0.621, | 0.955) | 0.014 |
| AGE.GROUP | |||||||||
| 25–44 | 0.850 | *** | 0.236 | (0.373, | 1.327) | 2.340 | (1.452, | 3.770) | < 0.001 |
| 45–64 | 0.702 | ** | 0.234 | (0.230, | 1.174) | 2.018 | (1.259, | 3.235) | 0.003 |
| 65–74 | 0.838 | ** | 0.251 | (0.332, | 1.345) | 2.312 | (1.394, | 3.838) | 0.001 |
| 75+ | 0.582 | 0.357 | (–0.140, | 1.303) | 1.790 | (0.869, | 3.680) | 0.104 | |
| DEGREE | |||||||||
| None/Lowest | –0.960 | . | 0.527 | (–2.024, | 0.103) | 0.383 | (0.132, | 1.108) | 0.068 |
| Secondary | –0.081 | 0.193 | (–0.470, | 0.308) | 0.922 | (0.625, | 1.361) | 0.673 | |
| LowerTertiary | –0.113 | 0.190 | (–0.497, | 0.271) | 0.893 | (0.608, | 1.311) | 0.554 | |
| UpperTertiary | 0.136 | 0.196 | (–0.260, | 0.531) | 1.146 | (0.771, | 1.701) | 0.489 | |
| URBRURAL | |||||||||
| Farm | –0.115 | 0.202 | (–0.523, | 0.292) | 0.891 | (0.593, | 1.339) | 0.568 | |
| CountryVillage | –0.260 | 0.173 | (–0.609, | 0.089) | 0.771 | (0.544, | 1.093) | 0.133 | |
| OutskirtsBigCity | 0.099 | 0.151 | (–0.207, | 0.404) | 1.104 | (0.813, | 1.498) | 0.515 | |
| BigCity | 0.381 | ** | 0.145 | (0.088, | 0.674) | 1.464 | (1.092, | 1.962) | 0.009 |
| COUNTRY | |||||||||
| Finland | 1.500 | *** | 0.177 | (1.143, | 1.858) | 4.482 | (3.136, | 6.411) | < 0.001 |
| Iceland | 0.433 | * | 0.203 | (0.024, | 0.842) | 1.542 | (1.024, | 2.321) | 0.033 |
| Norway | 0.931 | *** | 0.187 | (0.554, | 1.308) | 2.537 | (1.740, | 3.699) | < 0.001 |
| Sweden | 0.970 | *** | 0.174 | (0.619, | 1.320) | 2.638 | (1.857, | 3.743) | < 0.001 |
[i] Reference categories: CHG.BELIEF.GOD – No change; CONFIDENCE.CHURCHES – Some confidence; CONFIDENCE.PARLIAMENT – Some confidence; CONFIDENCE.COURTS.LEGSYSTEM – Some confidence; REL.RELEVANCE.TODAY – Neither agree nor disagree; REL.REPRESENTS.PAST – Neither agree nor disagree; NUM.AFFILIATED.PARENTS – 2; ATTEND.11.12 – Yearly; SEX – Male; AGE.GROUP – 0–24; DEGREE – Post secondary; URBRURAL – Town/Small city; COUNTRY – Denmark.
N = 3184 D = 2419.9 df = 43 AIC = 2505.9 Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 = 0.344.