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PDSim: A Shiny App for Simulating and Estimating Polynomial Diffusion Models in Commodity Futures Cover

PDSim: A Shiny App for Simulating and Estimating Polynomial Diffusion Models in Commodity Futures

Open Access
|Oct 2025

Abstract

PDSim is an R package that enables users to simulate commodity futures prices using the polynomial diffusion model introduced in Filipović and Larsson [10] through both a Shiny web application and R scripts. For user-supplied data, a standalone R routine has been developed to provide joint estimation of state variables and model parameters via the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) or Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). With its user-friendly interface, PDSim makes the features of simulations and estimations accessible. To date, it is the only package specifically designed for the simulation and estimation of the polynomial diffusion model. The Schwartz-Smith two-factor model [22] is also available within this package for both simulation and calibration. The package is validated through several tests, including replication of the results in [22], unit testing of the coverage rate, and verification of the outputs of the main functions.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.537 | Journal eISSN: 2049-9647
Language: English
Submitted on: Sep 22, 2024
Accepted on: Sep 15, 2025
Published on: Oct 3, 2025
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2025 Peilun He, Nino Kordzakhia, Gareth W. Peters, Pavel V. Shevchenko, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.