Abstract
Background: This study aims to assess the burden of aortic aneurysm (AA) among individuals aged 55 years and older from 1990 to 2021 at global, regional, and national levels.
Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed to estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) associated with AA. We employed Joinpoint regression to characterize temporal trends in the AA burden, decomposition analysis to quantify the contributions of key drivers, the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index of Inequality (CII) to assess health disparities, frontier analysis to benchmark development-stratified achievable disease control levels, and a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to project AA burden trajectories through 2050.
Results: Between 1990 and 2021, global deaths and DALYs due to AA among individuals aged 55 years and older increased by 73.92% and 62.57%, respectively. In contrast, ASMR and ASDR exhibited a declining trend, with AAPC values of –1.07 and –1.12, respectively. Population growth showed strong correlations with increased deaths and DALYs. SII and CII decreases indicated diminished transnational disparities in AA burden. Projections for 2050 indicate a continued rise in deaths and DALYs, while ASMR and ASDR are expected to decline further.
Conclusions: Although global ASMR and ASDR for AA declined from 1990 to 2021, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs increased, with notable regional variations in disease burden. Targeted public health interventions and optimized resource allocation are essential to mitigate the burden of AA.