Table 1
Top five countries with highest number of violent incidents committed against aid workers.
| 1999 | 2009 | 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 13a | Afghanistan | 62 | Syria | 86 |
| Somalia | 10 | Pakistan | 40 | South Sudan | 62 |
| Sudan | 9 | Sudan | 35 | Afghanistan | 50 |
| Indonesia | 7 | Somalia | 33 | Democratic Republic of Congo | 48 |
| Liberia | 6 | Sri Lanka | 26 | Mali | 29 |
[i] a Total number of aid workers killed, kidnapped or injured in that year.
Figure 1
Aid Workers Affected, 1997–2023.
Source: Aid Worker Security Database.
Figure 2
Annual Total Aid Related to Conflict, Peace and Security, 1997–2019.
Source: AidData.org.
Table 2
Summary Statistics.
| MEAN | MIN | MEDIAN | MAX | SD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total aid committed to conflict & security (millions constant USD) | 12.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 916.0 | 46.8 |
| Aid committed to conflict prevention and resolution, peace and security (millions constant USD) | 12.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 916.0 | 46.8 |
| Aid committed to security system management and reform (millions constant USD) | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 451.2 | 12.4 |
| Aid committed to civilian peacebuilding, conflict prevention and resolution (millions constant USD) | 6.0 | 0 | 0.004 | 659.2 | 29.3 |
| Aid committed to post-conflict peacebuilding (UN) (millions constant USD) | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 473.3 | 12.5 |
| Aid committed to reintegration and SALW control (millions constant USD) | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 44.2 | 2.8 |
| Aid committed to land mine clearance (millions constant USD) | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 344.4 | 9.2 |
| Aid committed to child soldiers (prevention and demobilization) (millions constant USD) | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 12.3 | 0.4 |
| Aid per capita (constant USD) | 53.2 | 0.06 | 27.1 | 837.6 | 82.8 |
| World Bank income category | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Governance Index | 35.1 | 0.4 | 34.2 | 88.5 | 18.4 |
| Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) | 8.8 | 0 | 4.0 | 87.6 | 11.7 |
| Total unemployment, male (% of male labor force) | 7.7 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 37.0 | 6.1 |
| Battle-related deaths (1000s of people) | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 71.4 | 2.9 |
Figure 3
Bivariate Effect of a One Standard Deviation Aid Increase on Killing of Aid Workers, 1997–2019.
Figure 4
Bivariate Effect of a One Standard Deviation Aid Increase on Injury to Aid Workers, 1997–2019.
Figure 5
Bivariate Effect of a One Standard Deviation Aid Increase on Kidnapping of Aid Workers, 1997–2019.
Figure 6
Bivariate Effect of a One Standard Deviation Aid Increase on Any Violence Against Aid Workers, 1997–2019.
Table 3
Random Effects Logistic Regression of Any Aid Workers Killed, 1997–2019.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aid Measures | ||||||||
| Total aid to conflict and security | 1.59*** | 1.31** | ||||||
| (0.18) | (0.14) | |||||||
| Aid to security system management and reform | 1.27* | 1.14 | ||||||
| (0.15) | (0.15) | |||||||
| Aid to civilian peacebuilding, conflict prevention and resolution | 1.41*** | 1.21* | ||||||
| (0.13) | (0.10) | |||||||
| Aid to participation in international peacekeeping operations | 1.30* | 1.23 | ||||||
| (0.16) | (0.17) | |||||||
| Contextual Factors | ||||||||
| Aid per capita (constant USD) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00* | ||||
| (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | |||||
| World Bank Income Group (ref: low-income) | ||||||||
| Lower-middle income | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.78 | ||||
| (0.23) | (0.22) | (0.23) | (0.23) | |||||
| Upper-middle income | 0.09*** | 0.11*** | 0.09*** | 0.10*** | ||||
| (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.06) | |||||
| Governance Index | 0.91*** | 0.91*** | 0.91*** | 0.91*** | ||||
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |||||
| Battle-related deaths (1000s of people) | 1.31*** | 1.32*** | 1.32*** | 1.33*** | ||||
| (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |||||
| Opportunity Factors | ||||||||
| Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | ||||
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |||||
| Unemployment, male (% of male labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 | ||||
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
| Constant | 0.02*** | 0.38 | 0.01*** | 0.37 | 0.02*** | 0.38 | 0.01*** | 0.33 |
| (0.01) | (0.24) | (0.01) | (0.24) | (0.01) | (0.25) | (0.01) | (0.22) | |
| Log Likelihood | –646.68 | –570.01 | –654.79 | –573.01 | –649.78 | –571.04 | –656.81 | –572.61 |
| Observations | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 |
| Countries | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 |
| Intraclass Correlation (rho) | 0.63 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| AIC | 1343.36 | 1204.02 | 1359.58 | 1210.01 | 1349.56 | 1206.07 | 1363.62 | 1209.21 |
[i] Exponentiated coefficients; Standard errors in parentheses.
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Table 4
Random Effects Logistic Regression of Any Aid Workers Wounded, 1997–2019.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aid Measures | ||||||||
| Total aid to conflict and security | 2.25*** | 1.90*** | ||||||
| (0.35) | (0.31) | |||||||
| Aid to security system management and reform | 1.08 | 1.04 | ||||||
| (0.08) | (0.07) | |||||||
| Aid to civilian peacebuilding, conflict prevention and resolution | 1.99*** | 1.75*** | ||||||
| (0.29) | (0.26) | |||||||
| Aid to participation in international peacekeeping operations | 1.51** | 1.39* | ||||||
| (0.21) | (0.19) | |||||||
| Contextual Factors | ||||||||
| Aid per capita (constant USD) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | |||||
| World Bank Income Group (ref: low-income) | ||||||||
| Lower-middle income | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.61 | ||||
| (0.16) | (0.17) | (0.17) | (0.17) | |||||
| Upper-middle income | 0.29** | 0.33* | 0.29** | 0.31** | ||||
| (0.12) | (0.14) | (0.13) | (0.13) | |||||
| Governance Index | 0.93*** | 0.92*** | 0.93*** | 0.93*** | ||||
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |||||
| Battle-related deaths (1000s of people) | 1.33*** | 1.37*** | 1.35*** | 1.38*** | ||||
| (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.11) | |||||
| Opportunity Factors | ||||||||
| Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | ||||
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |||||
| Unemployment, male (% of male labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | ||||
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
| Constant | 0.01*** | 0.08** | 0.00*** | 0.07** | 0.00*** | 0.08** | 0.00*** | 0.06*** |
| (0.00) | (0.06) | (0.00) | (0.06) | (0.00) | (0.06) | (0.00) | (0.05) | |
| Log Likelihood | –680.77 | –627.42 | –700.40 | –637.61 | –682.76 | –628.49 | –696.76 | –634.53 |
| Observations | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 |
| Countries | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 |
| Intraclass Correlation (rho) | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| AIC | 1411.54 | 1318.84 | 1450.80 | 1339.22 | 1415.52 | 1320.98 | 1443.52 | 1333.06 |
[i] Exponentiated coefficients; Standard errors in parentheses.
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Table 5
Random Effects Logistic Regression of Any Aid Workers Kidnapped, 1997–2019.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aid Measures | ||||||||
| Total aid to conflict and security | 1.42*** | 1.21 | ||||||
| (0.14) | (0.13) | |||||||
| Aid to security system management and reform | 1.13* | 1.00 | ||||||
| (0.07) | (0.06) | |||||||
| Aid to civilian peacebuilding, conflict prevention and resolution | 1.47*** | 1.32** | ||||||
| (0.14) | (0.12) | |||||||
| Aid to participation in international peacekeeping operations | 0.94 | 0.93 | ||||||
| (0.06) | (0.08) | |||||||
| Contextual Factors | ||||||||
| Aid per capita (constant USD) | 1.00 | 1.01* | 1.00 | 1.01** | ||||
| (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | |||||
| World Bank Income Group (ref: low-income) | ||||||||
| Lower-middle income | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.81 | ||||
| (0.30) | (0.31) | (0.32) | (0.31) | |||||
| Upper-middle income | 0.05** | 0.06** | 0.03** | 0.06** | ||||
| (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.04) | (0.07) | |||||
| Governance Index | 0.87*** | 0.86*** | 0.87*** | 0.86*** | ||||
| (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | |||||
| Battle-related deaths (1000s of people) | 1.06* | 1.07* | 1.06* | 1.06* | ||||
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
| Opportunity Factors | ||||||||
| Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | |||||
| Unemployment, male (% of male labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.07 | ||||
| (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.05) | |||||
| Constant | 0.00*** | 0.03** | 0.00*** | 0.03** | 0.00*** | 0.03** | 0.00*** | 0.03** |
| (0.00) | (0.04) | (0.00) | (0.03) | (0.00) | (0.04) | (0.00) | (0.04) | |
| Log Likelihood | –403.54 | –339.40 | –408.48 | –341.08 | –400.55 | –336.24 | –410.43 | –340.60 |
| Observations | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 |
| Countries | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 |
| Intraclass Correlation (rho) | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| AIC | 857.08 | 742.80 | 866.96 | 746.17 | 851.09 | 736.48 | 870.86 | 745.20 |
[i] Exponentiated coefficients; Standard errors in parentheses.
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.
Table 6
Random Effects Logistic Regression of Any Aid Workers Affected, 1997–2019.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aid Measures | ||||||||
| Total aid to conflict and security | 2.03*** | 1.79*** | ||||||
| (0.30) | (0.28) | |||||||
| Aid to security system management and reform | 1.18 | 1.09 | ||||||
| (0.14) | (0.13) | |||||||
| Aid to civilian peacebuilding, conflict prevention and resolution | 2.13*** | 1.86*** | ||||||
| (0.35) | (0.30) | |||||||
| Aid to participation in international peacekeeping operations | 1.17 | 1.20 | ||||||
| (0.13) | (0.14) | |||||||
| Contextual Factors | ||||||||
| Aid per capita (constant USD) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | |||||
| World Bank Income Group (ref: low-income) | ||||||||
| Lower-middle income | 0.59* | 0.59* | 0.59* | 0.59* | ||||
| (0.15) | (0.15) | (0.15) | (0.15) | |||||
| Upper-middle income | 0.16*** | 0.19*** | 0.16*** | 0.18*** | ||||
| (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.07) | (0.08) | |||||
| Governance Index | 0.94*** | 0.93*** | 0.94*** | 0.93*** | ||||
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |||||
| Battle-related deaths (1000s of people) | 2.04*** | 2.06*** | 2.04*** | 2.11*** | ||||
| (0.29) | (0.29) | (0.29) | (0.30) | |||||
| Opportunity Factors | ||||||||
| Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |||||
| Unemployment, male (% of male labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.03 | ||||
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
| Constant | 0.02*** | 0.16** | 0.01*** | 0.16** | 0.02*** | 0.17** | 0.01*** | 0.15** |
| (0.01) | (0.10) | (0.01) | (0.10) | (0.01) | (0.11) | (0.01) | (0.09) | |
| Log Likelihood | –851.78 | –765.06 | –867.39 | –773.28 | –849.49 | –763.63 | –867.95 | –772.06 |
| Observations | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 | 2880.00 |
| Countries | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 | 136.00 |
| Intraclass Correlation (rho) | 0.61 | 0.43 | 0.66 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.43 | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| AIC | 1753.57 | 1594.13 | 1784.78 | 1610.57 | 1748.99 | 1591.26 | 1785.89 | 1608.13 |
[i] Exponentiated coefficients; Standard errors in parentheses.
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.