Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Security Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Towards Risk Reduction in Northern Europe Cover

Security Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Towards Risk Reduction in Northern Europe

By:  and    
Open Access
|Jul 2026

References

  1. Abramowicz, V. (2022, February 22). Damage limitation and US nuclear strategy. The Interpreter. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/damage-limitation-us-nuclear-strategy
  2. Acton, J. M. (Ed.) (2017). Entanglement: Chinese and Russian perspectives on non-nuclear weapons and nuclear risks. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2017/11/entanglement-chinese-and-russian-perspectives-on-non-nuclear-weapons-and-nuclear-risks?lang=en
  3. Alberque, W., & Kacprzyk, A. (2024, October 2). More pillars needed: Ten options for Europe to improve NATO’s nuclear deterrence (Stimson Policy Memo). Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/2024/more-pillars-needed-nato-nuclear-deterrence/
  4. Arctic Coast Guard Forum. (2025, April 9). Arctic coast guards gather in Tromsø – Training for cooperation and preparedness in the High North. https://www.arcticcoastguardforum.com/news/arctic-coast-guards-gather-tromso-training-cooperation-and-preparedness-high-north
  5. Arms Control Association. (2019, August). The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty at a glance. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-inf-treaty-glance
  6. Army Recognition Group. (2025, May 2). NATO strengthens anti-submarine defenses in North Atlantic as Russian naval presence grows. Navy News. https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/nato-strengthens-anti-submarine-defenses-in-north-atlantic-as-russian-naval-presence-grows#google_vignette
  7. Ataman, J. (2025, May 21). Russian fighter jet protects ‘shadow fleet’ vessel in first such move by Moscow, officials say. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/20/europe/russian-fighter-jet-shadow-fleet-intl-cmd
  8. Aušra, M., & Makaraitytė, I. (2024, October 30, amended November 12). International investigation: Russian special forces change tactics in the Baltics, LTR. https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2401273/international-investigation-russian-special-forces-change-tactics-in-the-baltics?utm_source=chatgpt.com
  9. Basel Peace Office. (2021, January 20). ’Denmark’s nuclear weapons policy and the rights of women’, List of issues submission to the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women during its periodic review of Denmark, submitted by Aotearoa Lawyers for Peace, Basel Peace Office, World Future Council and Youth Fusion. https://baselpeaceoffice.org/sites/default/files/imce/articles/2021/denmark_nuclear_policy_and_the_rights_of_women_submission_by_alp_bpo_wfc_and_youth_fusion.pdf
  10. Beznosiuk, M. (2025, August 4). Russia marshals its strength for Zapad-2025. Center for European Policy Analysis. https://cepa.org/article/russia-marshals-its-strength-for-zapad-2025/
  11. Bogdanov, K., & Stefanovitz, D. (2024). O dilemme bezopasnosti i ugrozah eskalacii v usloviyah prisoedineniya finlyandii [On the security dilemma and threats of escalation in the conditions of Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO]. Sravnitelnaya Politika [Comparative Politics], 15(3), 99112. https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/1706/949
  12. Boulègue, M. (2026, March 19). NATO Awakens in the High North. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
  13. Braut-Hegghammer, M., & Hagstrom, L. E. (2026). Hawks in the High North: The Rise of a Nordic Deterrence Cluster. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 9(1).
  14. Braw, E. (2024, December). The threats posed by the global shadow fleet – and how to stop it. The Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-threats-posed-by-the-global-shadow-fleet-and-how-to-stop-it/
  15. Brodén, A., Jonter, T., & Rosengren, E. (2025). Nuclear arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament in the Nordic region: Lessons from the past and possible routes ahead (UI Report No. 2). Swedish Institute of International Affairs. https://www.ui.se/butiken/uis-publikationer/ui-report/2025/nuclear-arms-control-non-proliferation-and-disarmament-in-the-nordic-region-lessons-from-the-past-and-possible-routes-ahead/
  16. Brooks, R., & Harris, B. (2025, February 27). Where did Russia’s shadow fleet come from? Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/where-did-russias-shadow-fleet-come-from/
  17. Brzezinski, I., & Varangis, N. (2016, October 25). The NATO-Russia exercise gap… Then, now, & 2017. The Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/the-nato-russia-exercise-gap-then-now-2017/
  18. Burke, R., Charron, A., & Paul, M. (2025, March 11). Trump 2.0’s Arctic opportunity: Thawing frozen dialogue. The Plastic Pipeline, Wilson Center. https://plasticpipeline.wilsoncenter.org/article/trump-20s-arctic-opportunity-thawing-frozen-dialogue
  19. Bye, H.-G. (2021, May 12). Arctic Council, EU, NATO on agenda as military leaders addressed Arctic security issues. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/arctic-council-eu-nato-agenda-military-leaders-addressed-arctic-security-issues
  20. Bye, H.-G. (2022, August 9). Arctic Chiefs of Defence meet to discuss new security situation in the region. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/arctic-chiefs-defence-meet-discuss-new-security-situation-region
  21. Bye, H.-G. (2023, November 29). New chief in the North: The Norwegian Joint Headquarters is unique in European context. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/new-chief-north-norwegian-joint-headquarters-unique-european-context
  22. Collett-White, M., Dutta, P. K., & Zafra, M. (2025, June 5). How Ukraine pulled off an audacious attack deep inside Russia. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/DRONES-RUSSIA/mypmjzayyvr/
  23. Convention on Cluster Munitions. (n.d.). States parties and signatories by region. Retrieved September 26, 2025, from https://www.clusterconvention.org/states-parties/
  24. Dagens Nyheter. (2026, January 10). Ledare: Ingen vill diskutera svenska kärnvapen – men vi måste. Dagens Nyheter. https://www.dn.se/ledare/ingen-vill-diskutera-svenska-karnvapen-men-vi-maste/
  25. Danilov, B. P. (2021, January 19). Russia wants to resume meetings between Arctic defense chiefs. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-wants-resume-meetings-between-arctic-defense-chiefs
  26. Danish Ministry of Defence. (2023, December 19). New agreement strengthens defence cooperation between Denmark and the United States. https://www.fmn.dk/en/news/2023/new-agreement-strengthens-defense-cooperation-between-denmark-and-the-united-states/
  27. Defence Industry Europe. (2024, May 31). Finland to sign contract for JASSM-ER cruise missiles for its F-35 fleet. https://defence-industry.eu/finland-to-sign-contract-for-jassm-er-cruise-missiles-for-its-f-35-fleet/
  28. Defence Industry Europe. (2025, July 5). Denmark, France, Iceland, Norway and UK to join NATO Forward Land Forces in Finland. https://defence-industry.eu/denmark-france-iceland-norway-and-uk-to-join-nato-forward-land-forces-in-finland/
  29. Drell, S. D., & Stubbs, W. S. (2011, July). Realizing the full potential of the Open Skies Treaty. Arms Control Today. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011-07/realizing-full-potential-open-skies-treaty
  30. Drozdial, N., Palasciano, A., & Hacaoglu, S. (2025, May 15). Trump says nothing will happen on Ukraine until he meets Putin. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/ukraine-russia-breakthrough-hopes-fade-as-nato-diplomats-meet?embedded-checkout=true
  31. Edvardsen, A. (2023, December 8). Sweden and the US signs defense cooperation agreement (B. A. Hansen, Trans.). High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/sweden-and-us-signs-defense-cooperation-agreement
  32. Edvardsen, A. (2024, February 7). New agreement gives US access to four new military areas in the North (B. A. Hansen, Trans.). High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/new-agreement-gives-us-access-four-new-military-areas-north
  33. Engval, J. (2019, March). OSCE and military confidence-building in conflicts: Lessons from Georgia and Ukraine(FOI-R-–4750--SE). FOI. https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/foi-r-–4750--se
  34. Erästö, T. (2021, May). New technologies and nuclear disarmament: Outlining a way forward (SIPRI Report). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2021/policy-reports/new-technologies-and-nuclear-disarmament-outlining-way-forward
  35. Erästö, T. (2024, June). Reducing the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 10.55163/WUTB3925
  36. Erästö, T., Su, F., & Wan, W. (2024, June). Navigating security dilemmas in Indo-Pacific waters: Undersea capabilities and armament dynamics (SIPRI Report). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/indo_pacific_240701.pdf
  37. Finnish Government. (2026, March 5). Finnish Government proposes to amend Nuclear Energy Act and Criminal Code to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence [Press release]. https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/236553176/finnish-government-proposes-to-amend-nuclear-energy-act-and-criminal-code-to-strengthen-nato-s-deterrence-and-defence
  38. Finnish Ministry of Defense. (2025, January 14). NATO to strengthen its presence in Baltic Sea [Press release]. https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/press_releases_and_news/nato_to_strengthen_its_presence_in_baltic_sea.14890.news?11662_o=40#40b7b97d
  39. Finnish Nuclear Energy Act, 990/1987 (amendments up to 342/2008 included) (Finland). https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2020-03/finnish_nuclear_energy_act_2008.pdf
  40. Forsvarskommisjonen av 2021. (2023). Forsvar for fred og frihet (Norges offentlige utredninger). https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/8b8a7fc642f44ef5b27a1465301492ff/no/pdfs/nou202320230014000dddpdfs.pdf
  41. Government of Canada. (2023, December 6). Report 6 – Arctic waters surveillance (House Standing Committee on Public Accounts [PACP], Office of the Auditor General). https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/transparency-transparence/briefing-breffage/2023/waters-pacp-eaux-eng.html
  42. Government Offices of Sweden. (2023, February 15). Statement of foreign policy by Minister for Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström. https://www.government.se/speeches/2023/02/statement-of-foreign-policy-2023/
  43. Hansen, B. A. (2025, May 28). New AMAP report: Arctic Council working groups must persist despite Putin and Trump, says researcher. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/arctic-council-working-groups-must-persist-despite-putin-and-trump-says-researcher
  44. Helsinki Times. (2025, January 16). Russia’s military buildup near Finland stalls amid Ukraine war. Helsinki Times. https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/25983-russia-s-military-buildup-near-finland-stalls-amid-ukraine-war.html
  45. Herz, J. H. (1950). Idealist internationalism and the security dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157180. 10.2307/2009187
  46. Hoffmann, F. (2026). Small State Conventional Long-Range Strike Arsenals and Strategic Stability in Europe. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 9(1).
  47. Holm, A. O. (2023, December 15). American forces enter the North with free access to 36 military bases (B. A. Hansen, Trans.). High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/american-forces-enter-north-free-access-36-military-bases
  48. Jack, V., & Gavin, G. (2025, February 10). Inside the new plan to seize Russia’s shadow fleet. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-finnish-bay-snow-eagle-s-december-oil-baltic-sea-europe-waves-europe-kremlin/
  49. Jervis, R. (1979–1980). Why nuclear superiority doesn’t matter. Political Science Quarterly, 94(4). 10.2307/2149629
  50. Johns, E., & Kristensen, H. (2025, February). Reawakening a nuclear legacy: The potential return of the US nuclear mission to RAF Lakenheath. Federation of American Scientists. https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/JohnsKristensenFAS_LakenheathReport2025.pdf
  51. Kabachynkyi, I. (2025, March 5). Arctic war: How Russia is turning a peaceful region into a military base. United24 Media. https://united24media.com/world/arctic-war-how-russia-is-turning-a-peaceful-region-into-a-military-base-6461
  52. Kearns, I., & Raynova, D. (2016, March 7). Managing dangerous incidents: The need for a NATO-Russia Memorandum of Understanding. European Leadership Network. https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/managing-dangerous-incidents-the-need-for-a-nato-russia-memorandum-of-understanding/
  53. Kimball, D. (2023, November). The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty and the Adapted CFE Treaty at a glance. Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/conventional-armed-forces-europe-cfe-treaty-and-adapted-cfe-treaty-glance
  54. Kirkegaard, J. F. (2026, January 30). The time has sadly come for a Nordic nuclear weapon. Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-time-has-sadly-come-for-a-nordic-nuclear-weapon/
  55. Komin, M., & Hosa, J. (2025, May 27). The bear beneath the ice: Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic. European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-bear-beneath-the-ice-russias-ambitions-in-the-arctic/
  56. Kristensen, H., Korda, M., Johns, E., & Knight-Boyle, M. (2023, November 8). Nuclear weapons sharing, 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-11/nuclear-weapons-sharing-2023/
  57. Kukkola, J. (2024). The Leningrad Military District: The past and future of the northwestern direction. National Defense University, Finland. https://www.doria.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/190009/Kukkola_The%20Leningrad%20Military%20District_web.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
  58. Kulesa, L., Frear, T., & Raynova, D. (2016). Managing hazardous incidents in the Euro-Atlantic area: A new plan of action. European Leadership Network. https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief/managing-hazardous-incidents-in-the-euro-atlantic-area-a-new-plan-of-action/
  59. Lavikainen, J. (2023, November). Russia’s hybrid operation at the Finnish border: Using migrants as a tool of influence (FIIA Comment). Finnish Institute of International Affairs. https://fiia.fi/en/publication/russias-hybrid-operation-at-the-finnish-border
  60. Liang, X., Tian, N., Lopes de Silva, D., Scarazzato, L., Karim, Z. A., & Richard, J. G. (2025, April). Trends in world military expenditure, 2024 (SIPRI Fact Sheet). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024
  61. Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucija [Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania]. (1992). Art. 137. https://www.lrs.lt/home/Konstitucija/Constitution.htm
  62. Lithuanian Armed Forces. (2025, May 30). All-time largest exercise in the Baltic Sea BALTOPS 2024 to commence in Klaipėda with approx. 9000 military personnel and over 50 warships [Press release]. https://kariuomene.lt/en/all-time-largest-exercise-in-the-baltic-sea-baltops-2024-to-commence-in-klaipeda-with-approx.–9000-military-personnel-and-over-50-warships/25968
  63. Lucas, E., Sendak, C., Collén, C., Kallberg, J., & Viksnins, K. (2023, August). The new security architecture in the Nordic-Baltic: Assessing the Russian response. The Center for European Policy Analysis. https://cepa.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CEPA-Nordic-Baltic-Security-8.28.23-1.pdf
  64. Lukiv, J., & Inwood, J. (2025, September 20). Estonia seeks Nato consultation after Russian jets violate airspace. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrp6p5mj3zo
  65. Lukošius, E. (2025, December 12). The new ice curtain: Geopolitical competition, Russo-Chinese convergence, and Western deterrence in the Arctic. Institute of European Right. https://edi.lt/en/analizes-ir-komentarai/analyses/the-new-ice-curtain-geopolitical-competition-russo-chinese-convergence-and-western-deterrence-in-the-arctic/
  66. Lunn, S. (2013, October). The NATO-Russia Council: Its role and prospects (European Leadership Network Policy Brief). European Leadership Network. https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/The-NATO-Russia-Council-Its-Role-and-Prospects_Simon-Lunn_November-2013.pdf
  67. MacDonald, A. (2024). A menu of Arctic specific confidence building and arms control measures. Arctic Yearbook 2024, 89. https://arcticyearbook.com/images/yearbook/2024/Scholarly_Papers/SP11_MacDonald.pdf
  68. Macron, E. (2026, March 4). President delivers speech on France’s nuclear deterrence. Ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires étrangères. https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/president-delivers-speech-frances-nuclear-deterrence
  69. Mahadzir, D. (2025, January 15). NATO launches Baltic Sentry mission in Baltic Sea. USNI News. https://news.usni.org/2025/01/15/nato-launches-baltic-sentry-mission-in-baltic-sea
  70. Mäkeläinen, M. (2025, June 18). Satellite images reveal Russia’s military town. YLE. https://yle.fi/a/74-20168262
  71. Moregård, E. (2024, April). Nordic Response 2024: NATO returns to the North in large scale (FOI Memo 8504). FOI. https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI%20Memo%208504
  72. NATO. (2022, June 29). NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_210291.htm
  73. NATO. (2025a, June 6). NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm
  74. NATO. (2025b, May 7). Joint integrated air and missile defence exercise Formidable Shield 25 underway. Allied Air Command. https://ac.nato.int/archive/2025-2/multinational-live-fire-joint-integrated-air-and-missile-defence-exercise-formidable-shield-25-underway-
  75. NATO. (2025c, June 18). Finland host joint multinational Agile Combat Employment exercise – Atlantic Trident 25. Allied Air Command. https://ac.nato.int/archive/2025-2/finland-host-joint-multinational-agile-combat-employment-exercise-atlantic-trident-25-
  76. NATO. (2025d, September 12). Eastern Sentry to enhance NATO’s presence along its eastern flank. Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/eastern-sentry-to-enhance-natos-presence-along-its-eastern-flank
  77. News in English. (2025, May 23). Norway ends ban on NATO exercises in Finnmark. https://www.newsinenglish.no/2025/05/23/norway-ends-ban-on-nato-exercises-in-finnmark/
  78. Nierenberg, A., & Lemola, J. (2026, June 17). Finland lifts a nuclear weapons ban, eyeing an uncertain world. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/world/europe/finland-nuclear-devices.html
  79. Nilsen, T. (2024, July 21). B-52 on first time mission over northern Finland. The Barents Observer. https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/b52-on-first-time-mission-over-northern-finland/109512
  80. Nilsen, T. (2025a, March 7). While Trump casts doubt on NATO policy, B-52s make first ever bomb drops over Lapland. The Barents Observer. https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/while-trump-casts-doubt-on-nato-policy-b52s-make-first-ever-bomb-drops-over-lapland/426131
  81. Nilsen, T. (2025b, May 22). Norway eases self-imposed restrictions on NATO training. The Barents Observer. https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/norway-eases-selfimposed-restrictions-on-nato-trainingnbsp/430295
  82. Norwegian Armed Forces. (2024, May 4). Exercise Arctic Dolphin. https://www.forsvaret.no/en/news/press/exericse-arctic-dolphin
  83. Norwegian Government. (2024, February 2). Norway and USA agree on additional agreed facilities and areas under the SDCA [Press release]. https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norway-and-usa-agree-on-additional-agreed-facilities-and-areas-under-the-sdca/id3023830/
  84. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2017, April). Setting the course for Norwegian foreign and security policy (White Paper). https://www.regjeringen.no/en/documents/meld.-st.–36-20162017/id2549828/
  85. Nuclear Threat Initiative. (2025, August 13). Treaty on Open Skies. https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-open-skies/
  86. O’Dwyer, G. (2021, August 20). Norway and Russia sharpen transparency pact on warship, aircraft moves. DefenseNews. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/08/20/norway-and-russia-sharpen-transparency-pact-on-warship-aircraft-moves/
  87. Ohanjayan, M., Deen, B., & Pucek, K. (2025, March 25). Neither secure nor co-operative? The potential futures of the OSCE. Clingendael Institute. https://www.clingendael.org/publication/neither-secure-nor-co-operative-potential-futures-osce
  88. Paul, M. (2024). Back to the future of the Arctic: The enduring relevance of arms control (SWP Comment). Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C18/
  89. Pedersen, T., & Steinveg, B. (2024). Russia’s clashing ambitions: Arctic status quo and world-order revision. Politics and Governance, 12, Article 7311. 10.17645/pag.7311
  90. Pesu, M. (2026). NATO’s Spearhead in the European Arctic: The Rise of a Nordic Deterrence Cluster. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 9(1).
  91. Pietralunga, C. (2024, March 10). NATO holds biggest military exercises in Europe since end of Cold War. Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/03/10/nato-holds-biggest-military-exercises-in-europe-since-end-of-cold-war_6603097_4.html
  92. Pizzolo, P. (2024, October). The strategic relevance of Kaliningrad. Proceedings, 150(10). https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/october/strategic-relevance-kaliningrad
  93. Preparatory Committee for the 2026 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. (2025, April 30). Reducing the risk of nuclear conflict (Working paper submitted by Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America, NPT/CONF.2026/PC.III/WP.41). United Nations. https://docs.un.org/en/NPT/CONF.2026/PC.III/WP.41
  94. Posen, B. R. (1982). Inadvertent nuclear war? Escalation and NATO’s northern flank. International Security, 7(2). 10.2307/2538432
  95. Posen, B. R. (1991). Inadvertent escalation: Conventional war and nuclear risks. Cornell University Press.
  96. Post, D. (2024, February 9). Escalating to de-escalate with nuclear weapons: Research shows it’s a particularly bad idea. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2024/02/escalating-to-de-escalate-with-nuclear-weapons-research-shows-its-a-particularly-bad-idea/
  97. Raufoglu, A. (2025, June 21). Russia threat is ‘real and here to stay many years’, Sweden’s top diplomat warns. Kyiv Post. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54906
  98. Regehr, E. (2018, December 4). Nuclear submarines in the Arctic: Limiting strategic anti-submarine warfare (Arctic Security Briefing Papers). The Simons Foundation. https://www.thesimonsfoundation.ca/highlights/nuclear-submarines-arctic-limiting-strategic-anti-submarine-warfare
  99. Reuters. (2020, December 7). Russia adds firepower to Kaliningrad enclave citing NATO threat. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-adds-firepower-kaliningrad-exclave-citing-nato-threat-2020-12-07
  100. Reuters. (2023, October 6). Norway, Russia generals meet to discuss border cooperation. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-russia-generals-meet-discuss-border-cooperation-2023-10-06/
  101. Reyes, R. (2025, April 29). Russia threatens NATO nations with revenge nuclear strikes as Putin expands military bases along Finnish border. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2025/04/29/world-news/russia-threatens-nato-nations-with-revenge-nuclear-strikes-as-putin-expands-military-bases-along-finnish-border/
  102. Roblin, S. (2024, March 8). The F-35 is now the world’s first stealth fighter certified to carry a nuke. Popular Mechanics. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a60141719/f35-certified-to-carry-a-nuke/
  103. Rosa-Hernández, G. I. (2023, March 24). How Russia’s retreat from the Vienna Document information exchange undermines European security. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2023/03/how-russias-retreat-from-the-vienna-document-information-exchange-undermines-european-security/
  104. Royal Air Force. (2025, June 13). Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4 scrambled six times in six days. https://www.raf.mod.uk/news/articles/royal-air-force-typhoon-fgr4-scrambled-six-times-in-six-days/
  105. Russian Federation. (2025a, May 20). Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Moscow. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2018770/
  106. Russian Federation. (2025b, December 17). Expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board. President of Russia. https://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78801
  107. Saari, S., & Lavikainen, J. (2022, February). Russia’s shifting foreign and security policy in Northern Europe: The new geopolitical meaning of ‘good neighbourliness’ (FIIA Briefing Paper No. 331). Finnish Institute of International Affairs. https://fiia.fi/en/publication/russias-shifting-foreign-and-security-policy-in-northern-europe
  108. Samoškaitė, I. (2025, July 24). Putin’s gift to NATO: The rise of the “New Nordic Shield”. Heinrich Böll Stiftung. https://pl.boell.org/en/2025/07/24/putins-gift-nato-rise-new-nordic-shield
  109. Saradzhyan, S. (2025, June 5). Would Russia attack NATO and, if so, when? Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/would-russia-attack-nato-and-if-so-when
  110. Satam, P. (2025, April 28). First Joint Strike Missiles for Norway’s F-35s are ready. The Aviationist. https://theaviationist.com/2025/04/28/jsm-for-norways-f-35s-ready/
  111. Shlapak, D. A. (2017, March). Deterring Russian aggression in the Baltic States: What it takes to win (Addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces). RAND Corporation. 10.7249/CT467.1
  112. SIPRI Online Roundtable on Risk Reduction in Northern Europe. (2025, September 9). Conducted under the Chatham House rule.
  113. Snyder, R. (2024). Assessing the lethality of conventional weapons against strategic missile silos in the United States, Russia and China. Science & Global Security, 32(1–3), 105173. https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs32snyder.pdf
  114. TFI Global News. (2025, July 23). Russia launches ‘July Storm’, massive naval drills across Pacific, Arctic, and Baltic seas. https://tfiglobalnews.com/2025/07/23/russia-launches-july-storm-massive-naval-drills-across-pacific-arctic-and-baltic-seas/#google_vignette
  115. The Arctic Council. (2024, February 28). Arctic Council advances resumption of project-level work. https://arctic-council.org/news/arctic-council-advances-resumption-of-project-level-work/
  116. Tian, N., Scarazzato, L., & Guiberteau Ricard, J. (2025, June 27). NATO’s new spending target: Challenges and risks associated with a political signal. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2025/natos-new-spending-target-challenges-and-risks-associated-political-signal
  117. United Nations Treaty Collection. (n.d.). Convention on the prohibition of the use, stockpiling and transfer of anti-personnel mines and on their destruction. Retrieved September 26, 2025, from https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVI-5&chapter=26&clang=_en
  118. US Department of Defense. (2022, October). 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/–1/–1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
  119. US Department of State. (1963). Memorandum of Understanding Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Regarding the Establishment of a Direct Communications Link. https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/isn/4785.htm
  120. US Department of State. (2025, January 20). U.S. security cooperation with Denmark [Fact sheet]. Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. https://arcticreview.no/index.php/arctic/article/view/441
  121. Van Lokeren, F. (2025a, May 2). Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet holds Safety of Navigation Exercise. Naval News. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/05/russian-navys-baltic-fleet-holds-safety-of-navigation-exercise/
  122. Van Lokeren, F. (2025b, August 1). Russia’s naval shift: Offensive USVs and their strategic role in the Baltic Sea. Naval News. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/08/russias-naval-shift-offensive-usvs-and-their-strategic-role-in-the-baltic-sea
  123. Wan, W., & du Plessis, G. (2025, January 14). Blurring conventional–nuclear boundaries: Nordic developments, global implications. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2025/blurring-conventional-nuclear-boundaries-nordic-developments-global-implications
  124. Ward Agius, M. (2025, December 9). Zapad 2025: Russia, Belarus military exercise explained. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/zapad-2025-russia-belarus-military-exercise-explained/a-73974819
  125. Watling, J., & Danylyuk, O. V. (2025, April 3). Winning the industrial war: Comparing Russia, Europe and Ukraine, 2022–24 (Occasional Paper). Royal United Services Institute. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/winning-industrial-war-comparing-russia-europe-and-ukraine-2022-24
  126. Weaver, G. (2023, September 29). The urgent imperative to maintain NATO’s nuclear deterrence. NATO Review. https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2023/09/29/the-urgent-imperative-to-maintain-natos-nuclear-deterrence/index.html
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31374/sjms.505 | Journal eISSN: 2596-3856
Language: English
Page range: 506 - 521
Submitted on: Oct 29, 2025
Accepted on: May 7, 2026
Published on: Jul 15, 2026
Published by: Scandinavian Military Studies
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2026 Tytti Erästö, Wilfred Wan, published by Scandinavian Military Studies
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.