Security Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Towards Risk Reduction in Northern Europe

Policy and expert communities in Nordic and Baltic states largely agree that the threat posed by Russia to European NATO member states requires a stronger deterrence posture – a view reflecting the broader European response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the increasingly overt nuclear signalling it has adopted. But more aggressive deterrence signalling and militarization, including investment in advanced conventional capabilities, perpetuate action-reaction dynamics and raise the spectre of nuclear escalation alongside the risk of conventional war. This paper identifies potential sources of escalation risks in Northern Europe, arguing that increased tensions and ongoing militarization in the region are contributing to escalation risks, including crisis instability involving strategic nuclear forces. Making the case for regional risk reduction, the paper draws from existing proposals to outline some practical measures to prevent escalation and highlights the potential leadership role for Nordic countries in taking forward such an approach in the contemporary geopolitical environment.