
Von der Glaubwürdigkeitsrevolution zur Komplexität: Wirtschaftswissenschaft in disruptiven Zeiten
References
- Angrist, J. D. & Pischke, J.-S. (2010). The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 3–30.
- Ankel-Peters, J., Fiala, N. & Neubauer, F. (2023). Do Economists Replicate? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 212, 219–232.
- Ankel-Peters, J. & Schmidt, C. M. (2025). Rural Electrification, the Credibility Revolution, and the Limits of Evidence-Based Policy. Environment and Development Economics, 30(1), 70–81.
- Ankel-Peters, J., Fiala, N. & Neubauer, F. (2025). Is Economics Self-Correcting? Replications in the American Economic Review. Economic Inquiry, 63(2), 463–485.
- Arthur, W. B. (2021). Foundations of Complexity Economics. Nature Reviews Physics, 3, 136–145.
- Aspinall, W. (2010). A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature, 463, 294–295.
- Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P. & Cooke, R. M. (2019). Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(23), 11195–11200.
- Basu, K. (2014). Randomisation, Causality and the Role of Reasoned Intuition. Oxford Development Studies, 42(4), 455–472.
- Boockmann, B., Buch, C. M. & Schnitzer, M. (2014). Evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland: Defizite und Potentiale. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 15(4), 307–323.
- Brodeur, A., Cook, N. & Heyes, A. (2020). Methods Matter: P-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics. American Economic Review, 110(11), 3634–3660.
- Brodeur, A., Bruns, S. B., Herwartz, H. & Islam, C. G. (2026b). How Did Empirical Economic Research Improve over the Last Decades: Recent Trends and Prospects. European Economic Review, erscheint demnächst.
- Brodeur, A., Mikola, D., Cook, N., Fiala, L., Brailey, T., Briggs, R., de Grendre, A., Dupraz, Y., Gabani, J., Gauriot, R., Haddad, J., Lima, G., Ankel-Peters, J., Dreber, A., Campbell, D., Kattan, L., Marino Fages, D., Mierisch, F., Sun, P. [...] & Zhong, Y. (2026a). Reproducibility and Robustness of Economics and Political Science Research. Nature, 652, 151–156.
- Card, D. (2022). Design-Based Research in Empirical Microeconomics. American Economic Review, 112(6), 1773–1781.
- de Chaisemartin, C. & D’Haultfœuille, X. (2020). Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects. American Economic Review, 110(9), 2964–2996.
- Christensen, G. & Miguel, E. (2018). Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research. Journal of Economic Literature, 56(3), 920–980.
- Collins, H. M. & Evans, R. (2002). The Third Wave of Science Studies: Studies of Expertise and Experience. Social Studies of Science, 32(2), 235–296.
- Connolly, D. J., Loewenstein, G. & Chater, N. (2025). An S-Frame Agenda for Behavioral Public Policy Research. Behavioural Public Policy, 9(3), 593–613.
- Cooke, R. M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. Oxford University Press.
- Curry, J. A. (2023). Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response. Anthem Press.
- Deaton, A. & Cartwright, N. (2018). Understanding and Misunderstanding Randomized Controlled Trials. Social Science & Medicine, 210, 2–21.
- Farmer, J. D. & Foley, D. (2009). The economy needs agent-based modelling. Nature, 460(7256), 685–686.
- Ferman, B., Pinto, C. & Possebom, V. (2020). Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 39(2), 510–532.
- Fourcade, M., Ollion, E. & Algan, Y. (2015). The Superiority of Economists. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(1), 89–114.
- Fuchs-Schündeln, N., Kübler, D. & Palermo Kuss, A. H. (2026). Blinde Flecken in der Polykrise: Mehr Diversität führt zu einer solideren Wirtschaftspolitik. Wirtschaftsdienst, 106(8).
- Goodman-Bacon, A. (2021). Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 254–277.
- Hamermesh, D. S. (2025). The Demographic and Research Styles of Economics Writing. SSRN Electronic Journal.
- Haveresch, N., Ankel-Peters, J. & Bensch, G. (2026). A Slippery Slope: Topographic Variation as an Instrument. USAEE Working Paper, No. 26-676.
- Heckman, J. J. & Moktan, S. (2020). Publishing and Promotion in Economics: The Tyranny of the Top Five. Journal of Economic Literature, 58(2), 419–470.
- Heckman, J. J. & Singer, B. (2017). Abducting Economics. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 107(5), 298–302.
- Heckman, J. J. & Vytlacil, E. (2005). Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation. Econometrica, 73(3), 669–738.
- Heider, F., Lindner, V. & Schaffranka, C. (2026). Wie evidenzbasierte Politikberatung in Krisenzeiten trotz unvollständiger Daten gelingt. Wirtschaftsdienst, 106(8).
- Hemming, V., Burgman, M. A., Hanea, A. M., McBride, M. F. & Wintle, B. C. (2018). A Practical Guide to Structured Expert Elicitation Using the IDEA Protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9(1), 169–180.
- Hien, J. (2024). The rise and fall of ordoliberalism. Socio-Economic Review, 22(4), 1947–1966.
- Ioannidis, J. P. A., Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, H. (2017). The Power of Bias in Economics Research. Economic Journal, 127(605), F236–F265.
- Keane, M. P. (2010). A Structural Perspective on the Experimentalist School. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 47–58.
- Kerr, N. L. (1998). HARKing: Hypothesizing after the results are known. Personality and social psychology review, 2(3), 196–217.
- Leamer, E. E. (1983). Let’s Take the Con out of Econometrics. American Economic Review, 73(1), 31–43.
- Leibniz-Gemeinschaft. (2019). Leitbild Leibniz-Transfer.
- Levitt, S. D. (2025, 18. Juli). Will We Solve the Climate Problem? Gespräch mit Kate Marvel, People I (Mostly) Admire, Episode 162. Freakonomics Radio Network.
- Mahoney, J. & Goertz, G. (2006). A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research. Political Analysis, 14(3), 227–249.
- Manski, C. F. (2011). Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude. Economic Journal, 121(554), F261–F289.
- Mellon, J. (2025). Rain, Rain, Go Away: 194 Potential Exclusion-Restriction Violations for Studies Using Weather as an Instrumental Variable. American Journal of Political Science, 69(3), 881–898.
- Morgan, M. G. (2014). Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(20), 7176–7184.
- Ofosu, G. K. & Posner, D. N. (2023). Pre-analysis plans: An early stockta-king. Perspectives on Politics, 21(1), 174–190.
- O’Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, J. D., Oakley, J. E. & Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities. John Wiley & Sons.
- Panhans, M. T. & Singleton, J. D. (2017). The Empirical Economist’s Tool-kit: From Models to Methods. History of Political Economy, 49(S1), 127–157.
- Piseddu, E., Brodeur, A., Rose, J., Sievert, M. & Ankel-Peters, J. (2026). The Power of Carbon Pricing – A Comment on Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al. (2024) and Its Press Release. I4R Discussion Paper Series, 283.
- Röth, L. (2023). Pathway Analysis, Causal Mediation, and the Identification of Causal Mechanisms. In A. Damonte & F. Negri (Hrsg.), Causation in Policy Studies: A Pluralist Toolbox (S. 111–135). Springer.
- Rodrik, D. (2015). Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science. W. W. Norton.
- Rust, J. (2010). Comments on “Structural vs. Atheoretic Approaches to Econometrics” by Michael Keane. Journal of Econometrics, 156(1), 21–24.
- Stainforth, D. A. (2023). Predicting Our Climate Future: What We Know, What We Don’t Know, and What We Can’t Know. Oxford University Press.
- Sunstein, C. R. (2021). Averting Catastrophe: Decision Theory for COVID-19, Climate Change, and Potential Disasters of All Kinds. New York University Press.
- Torreblanca, C., Dinneen, W., Grossman, G. & Xu, Y. (2026). The credibility revolution in political science. arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.11542.
Language: German, English
Page range: 555 - 561
Published on: Sep 18, 2026
Published by: ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 12 issues per year
Related subjects:
© 2026 Christoph M. Schmidt, Jörg Ankel-Peters, published by ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.