Von der Glaubwürdigkeitsrevolution zur Komplexität: Wirtschaftswissenschaft in disruptiven Zeiten

The “credibility revolution” has fundamentally transformed empirical economic research through design-based research and a focus on causal identification. However, its toolkit is insufficient for addressing disruptive transformation issues. In addition to lingering problems of robustness and generalisability, there is a question of relevance: design-based research often presupposes sufficiently stable structures, whereas transformations involve precisely the alteration of such structures. We therefore advocate moving beyond the reduction in complexity associated with the credibility revolution and developing a greater willingness to engage with complexity. This includes modelling that is better equipped to handle complexity, openness to other epistemic traditions and, in particular, a more systematic approach to expertise. Structured expert surveys and institutionally organised plurality can contribute to this.