Suborbital Spaceflight Regulation: A Case-Based Commentary on Managing Risk Beyond the Learning Period

This study presents a qualitative, case-based risk assessment to evaluate participant safety and regulatory accountability in suborbital spaceflight. Currently, the suborbital flight sector is operating under a regulatory “learning period” moratorium that offers minimal oversight from the Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA-AST). A qualitative Bowtie-based case study is presented herein, applying the ICAO risk matrix and the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) methodology to a representative loss-of-pressurization scenario in Blue Origin’s suborbital operations. This approach demonstrates that structured qualitative risk-management frameworks can effectively assess catastrophic hazards with limited empirical data and reduce risks to acceptable levels without imposing excessive costs on operators. To address existing safety and regulatory gaps, this study recommends: (1) establishing a defined regulatory framework with mandatory vehicle certification and legal protections for participants; (2) the adoption of risk-management methodologies such as ALARP and CBA by commercial operators; (3) developing FAA-AST– directed medical screening and training programs for spaceflight participants; (4) incorporating personal safety equipment, including breathing apparatus; and (5) fostering collaboration with established aerospace institutions such as NASA. Overall, the findings highlight the need for near-term policy action to support a safe, sustainable, and accountable evolution of suborbital space tourism.