Operationalizing the VUCA–BANI Continuum: Tools, Frameworks, and Methods for Managing Extreme Uncertainty

This study develops and empirically tests an integrative model of organizational effectiveness in the context of VUCA–BANI environments, emphasizing the role of socio-cognitive and structural mechanisms in shaping collective outcomes. Drawing on contemporary organizational theory, the model examines the relationships between trust in leadership, procedural and distributive justice, team effectiveness, and role-related stressors, including role conflict and role overload, within the Bulgarian Armed Forces. The findings highlight the dominant role of procedural justice as a central mediating mechanism through which trust in leadership is translated into team and organizational effectiveness. Compared to distributive justice, procedural justice demonstrates stronger and more consistent direct and indirect effects, underscoring the importance of transparent and predictable decision-making processes in conditions of high uncertainty. The results further reveal differentiated effects of role stressors: role overload exhibits a positive, adaptive function, while role conflict remains a weak but negative factor, particularly in structured organizational settings. Interpreted through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory, the study suggests that organizational effectiveness emerges from nonlinear interactions among trust, justice, and role structures rather than direct managerial control.