Abstract
Purpose
Despite the global shutdown of universities and research laboratories in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant and unexpected increase in scientific production was observed during 2020 and especially in 2021 (Rousseau et al., 2023). A plausible explanation is that researchers took advantage of the lockdown period to write and develop pre-existing ideas. But what happened once that stockpile of ideas was exhausted?
Design/methodology/approach
This study aims to address that question by analyzing the scientific output of fourteen highly productive countries using data from three databases: WoS, Scopus, and OpenAlex.
Findings
Our analysis shows that, following the production peak in 2021, there was a general decline over the next two years (2022 and 2023) across most Western countries, including Japan and Brazil. However, this trend was not observed in China or India, which have maintained sustained growth since 2021. Russia, by contrast, has shown a continuous decline since 2021, likely related to its involvement in armed conflicts. Notably, this pattern of decline persists even when excluding the broad category of Life Sciences and Biomedicine.
Research limitation
The observed phenomenon cannot be fully explained. A broader understanding would require the wide distribution of a questionnaire among researchers and institutions.
Practical implications
This study provides insight into how the scientific system responded through its publication output to the temporary suspension of research institutions’ activities during the COVID-19 lockdown.
Originality/value
Our analysis contributes to understanding the unusual trends in research publications due to the pandemic’s influence. It can be seen as a discussion of a natural experiment in the science of science.