Stock market reactions to Donald Trump-involved U.S. presidential elections: Evidence from the S&amp;P 500 in 2016, 2020, and 2024

U.S. presidential elections	Election date	Pre-election event period	Election event period
2004	02.11.2004	13.10.2004–26.10.2004	27.10.2004–09.11.2004
2008	04.11.2008	15.10.2008–28.10.2008	29.10.2008–11.11.2008
2012	06.11.2012	17.10.2012–30.10.2012	31.10.2012–13.11.2012

Placebo test: two-sided F-test results_

Placebo period	F-statistic	p-value
2015	1.45	0.586
2017	3.80	0.060
2019	1.10	0.885
2021	1.25	0.747
2023	1.15	0.834

U_S_ presidential elections and analysed event periods (2016, 2020, and 2024)_

U.S. presidential elections	Election date	Pre-election event period	Election event period
2016	08.11.2016	19.10.2016–01.11.2016	02.11.2016–15.11.2016
2020	03.11.2020	14.10.2020–27.10.2020	28.10.2020–10.11.2020
2024	05.11.2020	16.10.2024–29.10.2024	30.10.2024–12.11.2024

Two-sided F-test results (2004, 2008, and 2012)_

U.S. presidential election	F-statistic	p-value
2004	1.6808	0.451
2008	3.2147	0.097
2012	0.4684	0.274

Descriptive statistics of the S&P 500 during the analysed U_S_ presidential election periods_

U.S. presidential election	Descriptive statistics	Pre-election event period	Election event period
2016	Mean value	−0.13	0.32
	Standard deviation	0.32	0.85
	Variance	0.10	0.71
	Minimum	−0.68	−0.65
	Maximum	0.47	2.20
2020	Mean value	−0.35	0.45
	Standard deviation	0.83	1.77
	Variance	0.69	3.14
	Minimum	−1.88	−3.59
	Maximum	0.52	2.18
2024	Mean value	0.03	0.26
	Standard deviation	0.39	1.14
	Variance	0.16	1.30
	Minimum	−0.92	−1.88
	Maximum	0.47	2.50

Two-sided F-test results_

U.S. presidential election	F-statistic	p-value
2016	0.15	0.009
2020	0.22	0.034
2024	0.12	0.004

Placebo test periods in non-election years_

Year	Placebo event date	Placebo pre-event period	Placebo event period
2015	03.11.2015	14.10.2015–27.10.2015	14.10.2015–27.10.2015
2017	07.11.2017	18.10.2017–31.10.2017	18.10.2017–31.10.2017
2019	05.11.2019	16.10.2019–29.10.2019	16.10.2019–29.10.2019
2021	02.11.2021	13.10.2021–26.10.2021	13.10.2021–26.10.2021
2023	07.11.2023	18.10.2023–31.10.2023	18.10.2023–31.10.2023

One-sided F-test results_

U.S. presidential election	F-statistic	p-value
2016	0.15	0.004
2020	0.22	0.017
2024	0.12	0.002

Welch two-sample T-test results_

US presidential election	t-statistic	p-value
2016	−1.58	0.142
2020	−1.29	0.220
2024	−0.59	0.567

References

Authors

Metrics

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2026-0004 | Journal eISSN: 2543-5361 | Journal ISSN: 2299-9701

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Language: English

Page range: 26 - 37

Submitted on: Jan 15, 2026

Accepted on: Apr 11, 2026

Published on: May 5, 2026

Published by: Warsaw School of Economics

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

Keywords:

Stock market,

Political event,

U.S. presidential election,

Trump effect,

Financial market

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Business management,

Management accounting, financial controlling, cost calculation, investment

© 2026 Michał Wielechowski, Katarzyna Czech, Arkadiusz Weremczuk, Mariusz Próchniak, published by Warsaw School of Economics
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Volume 62 (2026): Issue 1 (March 2026)

Stock market reactions to Donald Trump-involved U.S. presidential elections: Evidence from the S&P 500 in 2016, 2020, and 2024

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

U_S_ presidential elections and analysed event periods (2004, 2008, and 2012)_