How are geopolitical tensions driving a shift from liberal globalization to friendshoring?

This article examines whether the rise of friendshoring reflects a broader shift from liberal globalization toward security-driven economic realignment. It focuses on Western economies’ dependence on strategic rivals (China and Russia) and asks whether recent geopolitical tensions are reshaping global value chains (GVCs) around trusted political partners rather than purely cost-efficient locations. The study combines insights from international political economy, security studies, and GVC theory with an empirical perspective based on TiVA indicators for the period 1995–2020. The analysis shows that available value-added trade data do not yet indicate a completed structural reorganization of GVCs in line with friendshoring. At the same time, they reveal substantial and sector-specific dependencies, especially on China in manufacturing and on Russia in raw materials and energy-related activities. These vulnerabilities help explain the growing political appeal of de-risking and alliance-based economic cooperation. The study argues that friendshoring should be understood not as an already completed empirical transformation, but as an emerging strategic response to the limits of liberal interdependence under conditions of geopolitical rivalry. The article contributes to the literature by linking geopolitical and geoeconomic risks and trade realignment, offering a framework for understanding how national security concerns are reshaping global production and trade networks.