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Reforestation of Scots pine stands in the Luhansk region after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: predictive modeling Cover

Reforestation of Scots pine stands in the Luhansk region after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: predictive modeling

Open Access
|Jun 2025

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

The location of the research area in eastern Ukraine and the spatial distribution of sample plots
The location of the research area in eastern Ukraine and the spatial distribution of sample plots

Figure 2.

Representative fragments of two SPs selected for model validation (left: SP 1; right: SP 2); photographs were taken in 2021. SPs: sample plots
Representative fragments of two SPs selected for model validation (left: SP 1; right: SP 2); photographs were taken in 2021. SPs: sample plots

Figure 3.

Block diagram of the UFB model (Kozak et al. 2023), the full term of DBH given in the figure: diameter at breast height
Block diagram of the UFB model (Kozak et al. 2023), the full term of DBH given in the figure: diameter at breast height

Figure 4.

Percentage of drying of assimilation apparatus of Scots pine as depicted in the UFB model: a) 0%, b) 100%
Percentage of drying of assimilation apparatus of Scots pine as depicted in the UFB model: a) 0%, b) 100%

Figure 5.

Percentage distribution of the NDVI index in the Luhansk region, as obtained for two dates: 06.27.2020 (dark green) and 07.06.2024 (light green)
Percentage distribution of the NDVI index in the Luhansk region, as obtained for two dates: 06.27.2020 (dark green) and 07.06.2024 (light green)

Figure 6.

Graphical visualization of statistical calculations: linear regressions for modeled versus observed tree height: A – for SP 1, C – for SP 2; residual plots for tree height associated with the linear models in the preceding graph: B – for SP 1, D – for SP 2
Graphical visualization of statistical calculations: linear regressions for modeled versus observed tree height: A – for SP 1, C – for SP 2; residual plots for tree height associated with the linear models in the preceding graph: B – for SP 1, D – for SP 2

Figure 7.

Visualization of Scots pine seedlings in simulations performed by the UFB model: A – SP 1 in 1 year; B – SP 2 in 1 year; C – SP 1 in the year 2030 (control variant); D – SP 2 in the year 2030 (control variant); E – SP 1 in the year 2030 (warm-dry variant); F – SP 2 in the year 2030 (warm-dry variant); size of the plots 25 × 25 m
Visualization of Scots pine seedlings in simulations performed by the UFB model: A – SP 1 in 1 year; B – SP 2 in 1 year; C – SP 1 in the year 2030 (control variant); D – SP 2 in the year 2030 (control variant); E – SP 1 in the year 2030 (warm-dry variant); F – SP 2 in the year 2030 (warm-dry variant); size of the plots 25 × 25 m

Climatic scenarios and major simulation results for two sample plots (SP 1 and SP2) differing in terms of the initial seedling density

Sample plotInitial (in 2014) number of planted trees, ind./haClimatic scenarioAnnual degree-day, °CPrecipitation, mmModeled No. of trees, ind./haNo. of dead trees
20142030ind./ha%
SP 110,000Control175045010,0006756324432.4
Warm-dry197535010,0002161783978.4
SP 23,333Control17504503,333259773622.1
Warm-dry19753503,333234299129.7

Statistical results of model validation

SP No.R2RMSE, mME, mBIAS
10.95790.02640.95800.0013
20.96010.03050.93920.0164
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ffp-2025-0006 | Journal eISSN: 2199-5907 | Journal ISSN: 0071-6677
Language: English
Page range: 51 - 60
Submitted on: Mar 5, 2025
Accepted on: Apr 29, 2025
Published on: Jun 18, 2025
Published by: Forest Research Institute
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2025 Ihor Kozak, Viktor Myroniuk, Serhij Zibtsev, Myroslava Mylenka, Piotr Kociuba, Krzysztof Gniewek, published by Forest Research Institute
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.