Regional Economic Resilience Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty: Analysis of the External Economic Activity of Ukrainian Regions

Regional economic resilience during active warfare remains understudied despite growing geopolitical instability. This research examines how Ukrainian regional economies sustained external economic activity during Russia’s war, from the initial phase in 2014 to the full-scale phase (2022–2024), focusing specifically on the role of the preexisting economic structures versus geographical proximity to the frontline. Using taxonomic analysis of 24 regions across three periods (2015, 2022 and 2024), we classified regions into four performance groups. Results show that economic structures at the beginning of the war (infrastructure, institutional capacity, industrial diversity) determine resilience far more than distance from the front lines. Western safe regions Chernivtsi and Ivano-Frankivsk rank among the lowest performers (23rd and 21st), while frontline-adjacent Dnipropetrovsk ranks 3rd. Regions absorbing relocated enterprises demonstrate superior performance: Kyiv absorbed 2,847 businesses and improved from rank 18 (2015) to rank 1 (2024). Average taxonomic index improved from 0.12 (2022) to 0.15 (2024), exceeding the 2015 baseline (0.13). These findings challenge geographical determinism in wartime economics, demonstrating that economic geography matters more than physical geography. The findings confirm regional resilience as path-dependent on pre-war economic structures rather than purely reactive to war proximity.