Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Do Remittances Cause Inflation? Long-Run Evidence from Tajikistan Cover

Do Remittances Cause Inflation? Long-Run Evidence from Tajikistan

Open Access
|Jul 2026

References

  1. Abdul-Mumuni, A., & Quaidoo, C. (2016). Effect of International Remittances on Inflation in Ghana Using the Bounds Testing Approach. Business and Economic Research, 6(1), 192–209. https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v6i1.8635
  2. Acosta, P. A., Lartey, E. K., & Mandelman, F. S. (2009). Remittances and the Dutch Disease. Journal of International Economics, 79(1), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.06.007
  3. Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2021). Asian Development Outlook 2021: Financing a Green and Inclusive Recovery. Retrieved from: https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2021
  4. Akinbobola, T. O. (2012). The Dynamics of Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 2(4), 117–141. https://www.scienpress.com/upload/jafb/vol%202_4_8.pdf
  5. Amassoma, D., Sunday, K., & Onyedikachi, E. E. (2018). The Influence of Money Supply on Inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Management, 31, 5–23 https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2018.31.01
  6. Aras, S., & Lisboa, P. J. (2022). Explainable Inflation Forecasts by Machine Learning Models. Expert Systems with Applications, 207, 117982. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117982
  7. Azam, M., & Khan, S. (2022). Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence From the Developed and Developing World. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(4), 4224–4243. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2368
  8. Ball, C. P., Lopez, C., & Reyes, J. (2013). Remittances, Inflation, and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies. The World Economy, 36(4), 487–507. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12042
  9. Basnet, H. C., Donou-Adonsou, F., & Upadhyaya, K. (2022). Remittances-Inflation Nexus in South Asia: An Empirical Examination. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 14(2), 152–161. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2021-0053
  10. Brown R. L., J. Durbin, & J. M. Evans. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
  11. Buthelezi, E. M. (2023). Impact of Money Supply on Different States of Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa. Economies, 11(2), Article 44. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11020064
  12. Chami, R., Barajas, A., Cosimano, T., Fullenkamp, C., Gapen, M., & Montiel, P. (2008). Macroeconomic consequences of remittances. International Monetary Fund (IMF Occasional Paper 259).
  13. Chow, G. C., & Lin, A. L. (1971). Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series. Review of Economics and Statistics, 53(4), 372–375. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928739
  14. Clément, M. (2011). Remittances and Household Expenditure Patterns in Tajikistan: A Propensity Scores Matching Analysis. Asian Development Review, 28(2), 58–87. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110511500107
  15. Coface (2024). Tajikistan: Country file, Economic Risk Analysis. Retrieved from: https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/business-risk-dashboard/country-risk-files/tajikistan#
  16. De Alwis, T., Athukorala, W. & Dewasiri, N.J. (2025). Currency depreciation as a determinant of inflation in Sri Lanka. In M. Kour, S. Taneja, E. Özen, K. Sood, & S. Grima. (Eds.), Financial Landscape Transformation: Technological Disruptions (Emerald Studies in Finance, Insurance, and Risk Management) (pp. 217–233). Leeds: Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-750-120251012
  17. Denton, F. T. (1971). Adjustment of Monthly or Quarterly Series to Annual Totals: An Approach Based on Quadratic Minimization. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66(333), 99–102. https://doi.org/10.2307/2284856
  18. Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1161–1176.
  19. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (2014). Transition Report 2014: Innovation in Transition. Retrieved from: https://2014.tr-ebrd.com/index.html
  20. George-Anokwuru, C. C., & Ekpenyong, B. I. (2020). Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 3(2), 29–37. https://doi.org/10.30560/jems.v3n2p29
  21. Goulet Coulombe, P., Leroux, M., Stevanovic, D., & Surprenant, S. (2022). How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(5), 920–964. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2910
  22. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2020). World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020
  23. Khan, Z., & Islam, M. (2013). The Effects of Remittances on Inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Economics and Business Research, 19(2), 198–208. https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/81629107/JEBR_2_2013-libre.pdf?
  24. Le Thanh, T. (2018). The Impact of Remittances on Domestic Investment in Developing Countries: Fresh Evidence From the Asia-Pacific region. Organizations and Markets in Emerging economies, 9(2), 193–211. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317105
  25. Leeper, E. M. (1991). Equilibria Under Active and Passive Monetary and Fiscal Policies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(1), 129–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(91)90007-B
  26. Medeiros, M. C., Vasconcelos, G. F., Veiga, Á., & Zilberman, E. (2021). Forecasting Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: The Benefits of Machine Learning Methods. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 39(1), 98–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2019.1637745
  27. Migration Policy Institute. (2019). Dependent on Remittances, Tajikistan’s Long-Term Prospects for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Remain Dim. Retrieved from: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/dependent-remittances-tajikistan-prospects-dim-economic-growth
  28. Mishkin, F. S. (2007). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (8th ed.). Addison Wesley.
  29. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence From Cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
  30. Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Mishra, V. (2011). Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence From Developing Countries. Southern Economic Journal, 78(2), 540–558. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.4284/0038-4038-77.4.914
  31. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  32. Rivera, J. P., & Tullao, T. S., Jr. (2020). Remittances and Inflation in the Philippines: A Dynamic Panel Analysis. Philippine Review of Economics, 57(1), 1–25.
  33. Roberts, J. M. (2004). Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.633222
  34. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281–314). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
  35. Singer, D. A. (2010). Migrant Remittances and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Developing World. American Political Science Review, 104(2), 307–323. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055410000110
  36. Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
  37. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2005). Tajikistan: Human Development Report 2005. Retrieved from: https://www.undp.org/publications/human-development-report-2005
  38. Woodford, M. (2001). Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(3), 669–728. https://doi.org/10.2307/2673890
  39. World Bank. (2009). Global Economic Prospects 2009: Commodities at the Crossroads. Retrieved from: https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/GEP/GEParchives/GEP2009/GEP09KeyFindings.pdf
  40. World Bank. (2011). Global Economic Prospects, June 2011: Maintaining Progress Amid Turmoil. Retrieved from: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentde-tail/737801468150879923/632530nwp0glob00box-0361511b0public0
  41. World Bank. (2022). Personal Remittances, Received (% of GDP) – Tajikistan. World Development Indicators. Retrieved from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?locations=TJ
  42. World Bank. (2023a). Migration and Development Brief 38: Remittances Remain Resilient but are Slowing. Retrieved from: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099755208142498760/pdf/IDU188f10cd71ae72148f11b63b16ef304800a43.pdf
  43. World Bank. (2023b). Tajikistan Economic Update, Summer 2023: Focusing on Boosting Private Sector Dynamism in Tajikistan. World Bank Group. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40114
  44. World Bank. (2024). Tajikistan Economic Update, Summer 2024: Focusing on the Footprint of State-Owned Enterprises and Competitive Neutrality. Retrieved from: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099072524040013252/pdf/P501023120e06b0f81979612b98e717e4f3.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2026-0013 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 227 - 243
Submitted on: Oct 21, 2025
Accepted on: May 27, 2026
Published on: Jul 8, 2026
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2026 Yasmina Bakhtiyorzoda, Demet Beton Kalmaz, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.