Have a personal or library account? Click to login

The Benefits of the EU Single Market: Evidence from the Gravity Model

Central European Economic Journal
Volume 12 (2025): Issue 59 (January 2025)
By:
Open Access
|Nov 2025

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

Percentage increase in trade related to EU membership in 2006–2017, based on the gravity model Source: own calculations based on USITC data
Percentage increase in trade related to EU membership in 2006–2017, based on the gravity model Source: own calculations based on USITC data

Figure 2.

Percentage increase of exports related to EU membership in selected sectors in the year 2017 Source: own calculations based on USITC data
Percentage increase of exports related to EU membership in selected sectors in the year 2017 Source: own calculations based on USITC data

Figure 3.

Percentage increase in trade related to EU membership in 2006–2017, based on the gravity model Source: own calculations based on USITC data
Percentage increase in trade related to EU membership in 2006–2017, based on the gravity model Source: own calculations based on USITC data

Gravity model parameters – OLS estimates based on exports and imports in 2017

VariableEstimateStd. ErrorT valuePr(>|t|)
Intercept−14.650.24−60.550.00
ln(Distance2)−0.780.01−62.570.00
ln(GDPdomestic,t)1.400.01149.880.00
ln(GDPpartner,t)1.090.01117.360.00
Dummy variable: Common border0.670.125.680.00
Dummy variable: WTO membership1.250.0526.350.00
Dummy variable: EU membership0.240.112.210.03
Dummy variable: Common legal origins1.000.0813.240.00
Dummy variable: Common language0.560.0414.080.00

Gravity model parameters – OLS estimates based on exports and imports over the years 2005–2017 on aggregated data

Variable2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Intercept−12.51−13.76−14.06−14.64−14.34−14.20−14.16−14.26−14.40−14.24−14.18−14.46−14.65
ln(Distance2)−0.71−0.70−0.70−0.70−0.72−0.72−0.74−0.74−0.75−0.77−0.76−0.77−0.78
ln(GDPdomestic,t)1.311.341.341.361.381.361.361.361.361.371.381.391.40
ln(GDPpartner,t)1.041.091.071.061.061.051.061.061.071.081.071.091.09
Dummy variable: Common border0.830.880.870.970.800.750.750.760.660.620.670.620.67
Dummy variable: WTO membership0.400.460.730.890.961.021.041.161.251.271.161.241.25
Dummy variable: EU membership0.030.120.160.120.100.190.160.280.250.210.290.270.24
Dummy variable: Common legal origins0.931.040.960.981.021.001.010.991.020.950.921.021.00
Dummy variable: Common language0.800.790.810.890.820.800.740.730.730.690.630.560.56

Gravity model parameters—OLS estimates (2017) vs_ fixed effects

VariableEstimate OLS (cross-sectional, aggregated data)Estimate FE (panel, sectoral data)
Intercept−14.65−2.93
ln(Distance2)−0.78−0.91
ln(GDPdomestic,t)1.401.13
ln(GDPpartner,t)1.09−0.13**
Dummy variable: Common border0.67−0.31
Dummy variable: WTO membership1.252.57
Dummy variable: EU membership0.240.28
Dummy variable: Common legal origins1.001.25
Dummy variable: Common language0.560.64
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2025-0017 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 284 - 294
Submitted on: Oct 2, 2024
Accepted on: Sep 10, 2025
Published on: Nov 2, 2025
Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year
Keywords:
Gravity model,
European Integration,
Exports
Related subjects:
Business and economics,
Political economics,
Economic theory, systems and structures,
Microeconomics,
Macroeconomics,
Economic policy

© 2025 Jakub Rybacki, Dawid Sułkowski, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Previous articleVolume 12 (2025): Issue 59 (January 2025)