Central European Economic Journal Feed

Domestic Intersectoral Linkages in Ukraine’s Economy: Typology and Structural Gaps

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study assesses sectoral roles in Ukraine’s intersectoral linkages in 2022 relative to 2002 and 2012. The calculations are based on national Input–Output Tables and apply the classical Rasmussen method, the economic-weight dimension and extended scale-adjusted indicators. Comparing typologies from the domestic and total matrices identifies role changes associated with imported intermediate inputs. The results obtained using the classical method are also compared with those for Germany, Poland and Slovakia. In 2022, the leading positions were held by extractive industries and primary processing. Accounting for economic weight reveals a more stable core: agriculture and food production, energy, trade and transport, financial services, real estate, public administration, education and health care. The share of sectors whose roles changed between the domestic and total matrices rose to 20%, compared with 16% in 2002 and 14% in 2012. The cross-country comparison using the classical method shows that, despite a similar number of key sectors, their composition differs: construction, transport and logistics are more prominent in the comparator countries, while extraction and primary processing prevail in Ukraine; agriculture is the only key sector shared with Poland and Slovakia. The article shows that combining linkage intensity, economic weight and the import component provides a stronger basis for identifying sectors capable of supporting Ukraine’s structural recovery.

Forecasting Volatility in the Eurozone: (GJR)-(E)GARCH Approach

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study aims to model and forecast volatility in Eurozone returns using generalised conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type models that capture volatility clustering, asymmetry and leverage effects. The application of GARCH-type models to forecast volatility in the Eurozone remains underexplored, even as recent geopolitical tensions signal heightened volatility. For this purpose, the Euro Stoxx 50 has been selected as a representative of the Eurozone equity market, comprising blue-chip companies considered leaders in their respective sectors. To model volatility, three GARCH-type models were selected: GARCH(1,1), exponential GARCH (EGARCH)(1,1) and GJR-GARCH(1,1). The results of the GARCH(1,1) model showed that current volatility is strongly influenced by past shocks and volatility. Moreover, volatility is highly persistent, suggesting that shocks have long-lasting effects. The EGARCH(1,1) results revealed evidence of asymmetry, indicating that negative shocks influence volatility differently than positive shocks of equal size. The results of the GJR-GARCH(1,1) model indicated that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude. In other words, the leverage effect was found. Among the three models, EGARCH achieves the lowest values across all criteria, demonstrating greater forecasting ability than the other two models. The current outcomes are vital for understanding the contributions of different GARCH models to volatility management and the recent situation in the Eurozone equity market, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers and risk managers and helping them design more effective portfolio and hedging strategies, especially during financial shocks and uncertainty.

Short Food Supply Chains in V4 Countries—A Comparative Analysis Based on a Systematic Literature Review

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study examines short food supply chains (SFSCs) in the V4 countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) through a systematic literature review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. It focuses on the participation of small farms, their forms of involvement, and the key drivers and barriers influencing engagement. The article fills the research gap in the assessment of the influence of agricultural structures of the V4 countries on the development and functioning of SFSCs. The results indicate that all countries show growing potential for SFSC development, although the share of participating farms remains relatively low in Poland and the Czech Republic compared to Hungary and Slovakia. Beyond agrarian structure, factors such as production specialisation, labour inputs and farmers’ marketing attitudes play an important role. Similarities are observed in distribution methods (mainly direct sales), dominant products (fruits and vegetables), motivations (higher prices) and barriers (time constraints). The review shows that while SFSC development across the V4 countries is driven by similar economic motivations and constrained by comparable organisational barriers, important differences stem from farm structures, production specialisation and institutional conditions, particularly between Hungary and the remaining V4 countries. These findings have implications for agricultural and rural policy.

Digital Twin Readiness and Green Entrepreneurship: Evidence from the Baltic States

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study examines whether the digital twin readiness of the Baltic countries is systematically related to green entrepreneurship. Using unified country–industry–year panel data for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from 2015 to 2024, we construct a digital twin readiness index (DTRI) based on five enterprise-level digital capability indicators: artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data analytics and ICT experts. DTRI is interpreted as a readiness indicator, rather than direct evidence of enterprise-level adoption. Green entrepreneurial outcomes are measured by clean technology start-up formation, green venture capital mobilisation and environment-related patent applications. The empirical strategy combines two-way fixed-effects models, staggered difference-in-differences estimates and an instrumental-variable specification based on a Bartik-style semiconductor price shock interacted with historical ICT intensity. Results show that higher DTRI is more consistently associated with venture-capital mobilisation and green patenting than with start-up formation. The strongest associations appear in Lithuania's energy-related activities and Estonia's manufacturing sector. The study contributes by shifting digital twin analysis from firm-level deployment to meso-level readiness, distinguishing entry, financing and innovation margins of green entrepreneurship and adding evidence from small open post-transition economies to twin transition debates.

The Happiest Life Periods of Older Europeans: The Role of Socio-Economic Circumstances and Personality Traits

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT

While the determinants of subjective well-being have been the focus of extensive research, how happiness is distributed across the life course has received comparatively less attention. This article examines how socio-economic circumstances and personality traits shape older adults’ reflections on the happiest period of their lives. Specifically, we analyse how these factors influence both the probability of identifying the happiest life period and its duration. We focus on Europeans aged 50+ as evaluating past life events contributes to present well-being and plays an important role in successful aging. Using data from the SHARELIFE longitudinal survey covering 17 European countries, we apply logistic regression and an extended Cox proportional hazards model. Our results show that personality traits exert a significant yet distinct influence on both the likelihood of identifying the happiest period and its duration. Not only positive but also negative socio-economic conditions or major life transitions are associated with a higher probability of identifying a happiest period, but with a shorter duration of this period. By examining retrospective narratives of happiness, the study contributes to broader discussions in the social and behavioural sciences on life-course well-being and its relevance for understanding successful aging in Europe’s aging societies.

Regional Economic Resilience Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty: Analysis of the External Economic Activity of Ukrainian Regions

Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Regional economic resilience during active warfare remains understudied despite growing geopolitical instability. This research examines how Ukrainian regional economies sustained external economic activity during Russia’s war, from the initial phase in 2014 to the full-scale phase (2022–2024), focusing specifically on the role of the preexisting economic structures versus geographical proximity to the frontline. Using taxonomic analysis of 24 regions across three periods (2015, 2022 and 2024), we classified regions into four performance groups. Results show that economic structures at the beginning of the war (infrastructure, institutional capacity, industrial diversity) determine resilience far more than distance from the front lines. Western safe regions Chernivtsi and Ivano-Frankivsk rank among the lowest performers (23rd and 21st), while frontline-adjacent Dnipropetrovsk ranks 3rd. Regions absorbing relocated enterprises demonstrate superior performance: Kyiv absorbed 2,847 businesses and improved from rank 18 (2015) to rank 1 (2024). Average taxonomic index improved from 0.12 (2022) to 0.15 (2024), exceeding the 2015 baseline (0.13). These findings challenge geographical determinism in wartime economics, demonstrating that economic geography matters more than physical geography. The findings confirm regional resilience as path-dependent on pre-war economic structures rather than purely reactive to war proximity.

Do Remittances Cause Inflation? Long-Run Evidence from Tajikistan

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This paper examines how remittances (REM) affect inflation in Tajikistan from Q4 of 2004 to Q4 of 2022, using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for the long-term effects of REM, government spending (GE[Q2.1][DBK2.2]), money supply (MS), exchange rate (EXR), growth and investment (INV) on inflation. Results indicate REM increase inflation by 0.22%, while GE reduces it by 1.7%. Both GE and MS significantly lower inflation; REM, EXR and growth tend to raise it. The INV’s effect is insignificant. The study contributes country-specific insights on inflation dynamics in a remittance-dependent, post-Soviet economy, highlighting the roles of REM, fiscal policy and EXRs within Tajikistan’s context. It also employs a machine learning method, random forest (RF), to evaluate predictive feature importance, capturing non-linear associations often missed by linear models. These RF results are presented as predictive insights rather than as evidence of structural causality.

Determinants of Voluntary Delisting in Post-Transition Markets: Evidence from Poland

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study examines the determinants of voluntary delisting on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, a leading post-transition market in Central and Eastern Europe. Using a mixed-methods design that combines a multiple cross-case study of 10 firms delisted between 2010 and 2024 with propensity score matching and a Cox proportional-hazards model, the analysis identifies the firm-level features associated with exiting from public trading. The qualitative evidence suggests that high ownership concentration above the 90% squeeze-out threshold, negative average return on equity in the 5 years preceding withdrawal and operation in mature, slow-growing industries are recurrent patterns, whereas company age at initial public offerings and listing duration are not. The Cox model with a time-varying effect indicates that the influence of the price-to-earnings ratio on delisting risk strengthens with listing tenure, consistent with a market-timing interpretation in which dominant shareholders exploit sustained favourable valuation windows to execute squeeze-outs. The study contributes to the corporate governance literature by providing preliminary evidence on the applicability of market-timing and wealth-transfer theories in a post-transition setting and offers exploratory implications for minority-shareholder protection and regulatory oversight.

Renewable Energy Consumption in the European Union: Are Nordic Countries in the Lead?

Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT

The energy transition of the European Union is inherently linked to the development of renewable energy consumption. Previous studies addressing the development of renewable energy sources in European Union member states have most often applied a single method of country classification, which may determine the stability and interpretation of the obtained rankings. This study aims to classify European Union member states according to the level of renewable energy consumption and to compare selected total ordering methods to identify the approach that provides the most consistent classification results. The analysis is based on Eurostat data covering the period 2015–2022. Four alternative analytical procedures commonly used in multidimensional comparative analyses were applied: the Hellwig method, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, the standardised sums method (SSW), and the zero unitarisation method (MUZ). Although the methods differ in their methodological foundations, the resulting rankings remain largely consistent. Nordic countries consistently occupy the highest positions in all rankings and form a distinct group characterised by the highest level of renewable energy consumption. The contribution of this study to the literature results from the comparative analysis of selected total ordering methods used to classify European Union member states in terms of renewable energy consumption development.

ROE (Net Income) versus ROE-CI (Comprehensive Income): A Multidimensional Analysis of a Time-Honoured Performance Metric

Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Business performance is key for all stakeholders. Return on equity (ROE) measures how effectively resources generate profits and indicates both the profitability and managerial efficiency. The traditional ROE, based only on net income, is sensitive to accounting policy (AP) choices and valuation models under IAS/IFRS. Since valuation effects may be recognised either in profit or loss or in other comprehensive income (OCI), ROE can be distorted. This problem has intensified with the introduction of IFRS 9 (2018) and during recent crises, when incentives for earnings management increased. The purpose of this study is to address two research questions: Does the traditional ROE adequately reflect the financial performance efficiency (Q1), and does the use of traditional ROE versus return on equity-comprehensive income (ROE-CI) lead to significant differences in the assessment (Q2)? The methodological triad juxtaposes academic comparative analysis, AI Chat GPT suggestions, and an empirical case study regarding 10 banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and their financial statements for 2017–2024, comparing ROE, ROE-CI, and the AP ratio to assess the impact of OCI on performance. The academic comparison and AI suggestions are not conclusive; the case study shows that banks increasingly use OCI to recognise valuation effects, creating discrepancies between ROE and ROE-CI. Pioneeringly, it is suggested that the proposed AP ratio (OCI/P) detects distortions and indicates when ROE-CI should be applied to reflect profitability.

Determinants of Sustainable Development of Agriculture in the WEFE-Nexus Approach in OECD-EU Member States

Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT

In the face of unprecedented challenges to global agricultural systems, it is imperative to comprehend the synergy between resource management and productivity in the quest for regional stability. This study is driven by the imperative to discern the long-term determinants of sustainable agriculture in the integrated context of the Water–Energy–Food–Environment nexus. In this context, the research focuses on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-European Union (OECD-EU) member countries from 1991 to 2022, examining how these world-leading economies manage the intricate nexus of trade-offs between resource use and agricultural value-added. By employing a sound panel data approach and second-generation econometric analysis to address the complexities of economic interlinkages, we assess the effect of water abstraction, food production, renewable energy transition and greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural output. The findings indicate that while water resources positively influence development, environmental degradation and the starting costs of energy transition are substantial sources of stress on productivity. Crucially, agricultural efficiency, rather than agricultural output, is revealed to be the leading engine of growth.

The Impact of Stability on Green Growth: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Although the literature widely discusses the role of stability in economic development, its sustainability dimension remains underexplored. This study investigates the impact of political, macroeconomic and financial stability on green growth using panel data from 27 European Union countries over the period 2012–2021. The empirical results indicate that domestic credit and government debt positively contribute to green growth, whereas government effectiveness has a negative effect. By integrating multiple dimensions of stability within a single analytical framework, the study provides new empirical evidence linking institutional structures, financial development and environmental sustainability. The findings offer valuable insights for researchers, policymakers and businesses, supporting the design of more coherent and stability-oriented strategies for a sustainable and inclusive green transition in the European Union.

The Impact of Parenthood on Labour Market Outcomes of Women and Men in Poland

Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT

We study the gender gap in income in Poland in relation to parenthood status, employing the placebo event history method. We propose a modification of the method that computes the placebo trajectories of the outcome analytically rather than through a numerical experiment, enabling its use on smaller panel datasets, such as the Polish Generations and Gender Survey. We observe a decrease of approximately 17% in mothers’ income post-birth. In contrast, the income of fathers surpasses that of non-fathers both pre- and post-birth, suggesting that the fatherhood child premium may be primarily driven by selection. Finally, we compare the gender gaps in income and wages between women and men in the sample with those in a counterfactual scenario in which the entire population is childless. Our findings show no statistically significant gender gaps in the counterfactual scenario, leading us to conclude that parenthood drives the gender gaps in income and wages in Poland.

Mapping the Policy Priorities of European Union Citizens: Evidence from the NextGeneration EU Programme

Sat, 23 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This paper examines how European Union (EU) citizens perceive and prioritise the allocation of resources under the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) recovery plan. Using Eurobarometer 99.4 (2023) data, it analyses whether perceived spending patterns align with citizens’ preferred investment areas. The study combines descriptive evidence with probit models and multilevel probit specifications to identify individual-level determinants of preferences and to account for cross-national heterogeneity. A cluster analysis further groups member states according to marginal effects for health, youth education and training, and improvements in working conditions. The results reveal a persistent perception–preference gap: citizens consistently favour greater investment in health, education, and job quality than they believe the EU provides. Individual characteristics (particularly education, gender, age, and labour market status) emerge as robust predictors of policy priorities, while country-level macroeconomic conditions play a limited role. Although cross-national heterogeneity remains meaningful, as confirmed by multilevel and clustering analyses, it does not overturn the central individual-level patterns. Overall, the findings contribute to debates on EU fiscal governance and legitimacy by showing that public support for NGEU depends not only on policy outputs but also on the alignment between supranational spending and citizens’ expectations.

Why States Exist: The Square Law Theory of The State

Sat, 23 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT

States—governments—exist because they can raise armies, by force if necessary, and the effectiveness of armies increases as the square of the number of men in arms. I shall prove, for example, that an army of 10,000 men can completely annihilate an army of 1,000 men while losing only 50 men, provided only that the average fighting ability of the men in the two armies is the same. To face the army of 10,000 men on equal terms, the army of 1,000 would have to be man per man 100 times more militarily efficient, so a huge army of unwilling draftees can generally outfight a small army of trained professionals. This is a precise formulation of the Principle of Concentration known to generals for millennia. It is also a military analogue, actually a special case, of Ronald Coase’s central idea in his The Nature of the Firm: business organisations exist because they can overcome the information costs that individual contractors would face operating alone. Anarchy is possible only if a means can be found to cancel the Principle of Concentration. I show that future technology may cancel it.

Business Strategies and Financial Distress Risk in Seasoned Listed Companies: Extending Earnings Quality Role

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study investigates the impact of business strategy and earnings quality (EQ) on financial distress (FD) risk in seasoned public companies listed on the Main Market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2023. Focusing on companies with long-standing market presence, we analyse operational efficiency, cost stickiness, income smoothing, accounting conservatism and the magnitude of accrual-based earnings management as determinants of financial health. Our findings indicate that higher asset turnover and profit margins reduce the likelihood of distress, while cost flexibility and discretionary accruals (DACC) show no consistent effect. Accounting conservatism yields mixed results, and income smoothing appears to function defensively, lowering distress risk. By jointly examining multiple dimensions of EQ within a strategic framework, the study provides practical implications for managers, investors and researchers and contributes to the literature by integrating strategic and accounting perspectives in the analysis of FD in seasoned public companies.

Revisiting the Corporate Governance-ESG Performance Nexus: Insights from the CEE Companies

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study examines how board characteristics shape environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance in Central and Eastern European (CEE) listed companies. Using a panel of 50 firms from four CEE countries over 2017–2023 (323 firm-years), the analysis assesses board size, gender diversity, tenure, CEO duality and independence using generalized least squares panel regressions with firm-clustered robust standard errors, complemented by robustness checks with lagged and alternative specifications. Larger boards are associated with lower ESG performance, while board independence is positively related to ESG performance. There is weak evidence that longer board tenure leads to higher ESG performance, but this association is not robust to lagged specifications. Gender diversity and CEO duality show no systematic effects. The study provides unique contributions. First, it offers context-specific evidence for the CEE region, an underexplored setting where post-transition governance, concentrated ownership and evolving EU enforcement may condition board effectiveness, hence clarifying the validity of findings largely derived from mature markets. Second, it advances theory by specifying mechanisms consistent with a stakeholder-governance perspective. The negative size effect highlights coordination-capacity limits, while the independence underscore the role of oversight.

Pricing Efficiency of Exchange-Traded Funds Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

The article examines the pricing efficiency of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) over the period 2010–2025. We analyse deviations of ETF market prices from their net asset values (NAVs) and introduce a novel perspective by comparing equal-, asset-, and turnover-weighted average absolute premiums and discounts. The results show that WSE-listed ETFs are generally priced efficiently, in line with evidence from other emerging markets. The largest mispricings, often in the form of premiums, occur in leveraged and foreign equity funds, particularly during episodes of market turbulence, while the smallest deviations are observed in ETFs tracking Polish sovereign bond indices. Most funds trade at a premium to NAV, with the exception of two domestic equity funds that frequently exhibit no significant discrepancies. Asset- and turnover-weighted deviations are slightly lower than equal-weighted ones, suggesting that the actual costs borne by investors are smaller than implied by unweighted measures. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of ETF pricing efficiency in Central and Eastern Europe, covering all instruments listed on the WSE and their full trading history.

Empirical Analysis of Digital Marketing Implementation in Service Sector: Perceptions, Social Media Impact Western Balkans

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study empirically examines the impact of digital marketing, particularly social media use, on customer growth within Kosovo's service sector. It explores how businesses perceive the effectiveness of digital marketing relative to traditional methods, and how social media use influences measurable marketing outcomes. A quantitative research design was employed, using a structured questionnaire distributed to 101 service-sector businesses in Kosovo. The collected data were analysed using SPSS software and subjected to reliability testing (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.855), correlation matrix analysis, One-Way ANOVA, and Pearson's Chi-Square tests. The results indicate a generally positive perception of digital marketing across businesses, regardless of professional position or experience. A statistically significant relationship (p < 0.05) was found between the frequency of social media usage and the perceived effectiveness of digital marketing in driving customer growth. This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of perceptions of digital marketing in Kosovo's service sector. It contributes to the limited local literature by offering data-driven insights and practical implications for businesses aiming to enhance their digital outreach strategies through social media integration.

Designing an LSTM-Based Model for Financial Asset Forecasting Using Machine Learning

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT

This study examines the predictive performance of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks in forecasting stock prices, focusing on Apple Inc. (2010–2025) and comparing results with traditional models. The novelty lies in (1) dynamic training optimization using EarlyStopping and ReduceLROnPlateau, (2) a fully documented LSTM workflow with UML modeling for reproducibility, and (3), a 60-day forward iterative simulation. To assess generalizability, the same model was applied to Microsoft (MSFT) via transfer learning, confirming robust cross-asset performance.Sensitivity analyses and stress tests during events such as COVID-19, highlight both the strengths and limitations. Using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), the study enhances interpretability by identifying key historical patterns that influence forecasts.Results show high predictive accuracy (RMSE = 3.17, MAE = 2.61, R2 = 0.9537, MAPE = 3.03%, SMAPE = 3.10%) and superior performance to ARIMA and SVR. Financial indicators, including hit ratio and Sharpe ratio above unity, confirm strong directional and risk-adjusted outcomes. The study underscores the growing relevance of AI-based forecasting compared with traditional econometric models (e.g., ARIMA, GARCH) in volatile markets and recommends incorporating sentiment or macroeconomic variables to enhance robustness. All code and workflows are publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/najlae195/LSTM-Model.git.