Modeling Cyber Threat Impact on Operational Capability in military network systems

The growing dependence of military network systems on digital infrastructures has increased their exposure to complex and persistent cyber threats. These threats are no longer limited to technical disruptions, but have direct implications on operational capability, affecting command, control, and decision-making processes. This paper investigates the relationship between cyber threat vectors and their impact on operational performance within military network systems. It proposes a structured approach for modeling the effects of cyber incidents by correlating technical disruptions with operational degradation levels. The study identifies key factors influencing impact propagation, including system interdependencies, network architecture, and response capacity. A conceptual model is developed to describe how cyberattacks translate into operational consequences, enabling a more precise evaluation of system vulnerability and mission risk. The approach supports both analytical assessment and decision-making by providing a framework for understanding the cascading effects of cyber incidents. The findings highlight the importance of integrating technical and operational perspectives in cybersecurity analysis. The proposed approach contributes to the development of more effective assessment models capable of supporting resilience-oriented strategies in military environments.