Table 1.
Impact of the war in Ukraine on the global GDP and global trade
Tabelle 1. Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf das globale GDP und den globalen Handel
| The original computing data | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indices | Years | ||||||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Gross domestic product: World, million US dollars | 77,097,370.2 | 78,991,149.9 | 74,598,693.1 | 75,812,114.3 | 80,640,541.5 | 85,748,800.5 | 87,106,406.7 | 84,659,888 | 96,100,091 |
| Merchandise exports by product group: world, annual, million US dollars | 18,959,331 | 19,005,917 | 16,556,508 | 16,039,355 | 17,742,592 | 19,546,006 | 19,004,555 | 17,645,180 | 22,283,819 |
| Production of Ukraine: total cereals, million t | 62.9 | 63.65 | 59.94 | 65.53 | 60.83 | 69.29 | 74.73 | 64.61 | 85.62 |
| Computing results (Pearson's product–moment correlation) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Data: | Sample estimates: cor | Other computing parameters |
| Gross domestic product (million US dollars, world) to production Ukraine total cereals (million t) | 0.7527341 |
|
| Merchandise exports by product group world (annual, million US dollars) to production Ukraine total cereals (million t) | 0.8050335 |
|
[i] Source: Own calculations based on AMIS (2022), World Bank (2022b) and FAO (2022b)
Figure 1.
Development of the world and Ukrainian food price indices. Source: Own depiction based on WTO (2022b).
Abbildung 1. Entwicklung des FAO Welt-Lebensmittelpreis Index und des FAO Ukraine Lebensmittelpreis Index. Quelle: Eigene Darstellung basierend auf WTO (2022).
Table 2.
Results of multiple regression analysis of war consequences in Ukraine for global food price index and global supply market of cereals
Tabelle 2. Ergebnisse der multiplen Regressionsanalyse zu Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf den Lebensmittelpreisindex
| Original computing data | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indices | Years | ||||||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Food price index (normal) | 120.13 | 115.03 | 93.05 | 91.92 | 98.02 | 95.92 | 95.10 | 98.13 | 125.73 |
| Supply world cereal market, million t | 3,149 | 3,279 | 3,353 | 3,455 | 3,518 | 3,501 | 3,545 | 3,604 | 3,644 |
| Exports Ukraine total cereals million t | 62.9 | 63.65 | 59.94 | 65.53 | 60.83 | 69.29 | 74.73 | 64.61 | 85.62 |
| Exports Ukraine wheat million t | 9.73 | 11.25 | 17.42 | 18.1 | 17.75 | 15.94 | 21.03 | 16.83 | 19 |
| Production Ukraine total cereals, million t | 62.9 | 63.65 | 59.94 | 65.53 | 60.83 | 69.29 | 74.73 | 64.61 | 85.62 |
| Computing outcomes (multiple regression) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Data: | Multiple R-squared (adjusted R-squared): | Other computing parameters |
| lm (formula = food price index [normal] ~ production Ukraine total cereals, million t + exports Ukraine total cereals million t + exports Ukraine wheat million t, data = data) | 0.9613 (0.9381) |
|
| lm (formula = supply world cereal market, million t ~ exports Ukraine total cereals million t + exports Ukraine maize, million t, data = data) | 0.7173 (0.6231) |
|
[i] Source: Made by the authors. Original data (AMIS, 2022; FAO, 2022b; World Bank, 2022b).
Table 3.
The development of the world and Ukrainian volumes of agricultural trade for export and import
Tabelle 3. Entwicklung des globalen und ukrainischen Handelsvolumens
| Indicator | Merchandise import by product group – annual (millions, USD) | 2020–2015, % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reporting economy | Product/sector | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| World | Total merchandise | 16,737,067 | 16,210,510 | 17,996,159 | 19,840,118 | 19,316,692 | 17,871,990 | 107 |
| World | Agricultural products | 1,599,244 | 1,604,023 | 1,766,106 | 1,856,514 | 1,827,560 | 1,849,613 | 116 |
| World | Food | 1,344,459 | 1,358,280 | 1,488,549 | 1,556,537 | 1,553,561 | 1,601,522 | 119 |
| Ukraine | Total merchandise | 37,517 | 39,252 | 49,609 | 57,188 | 60,800 | 54,337 | 145 |
| Ukraine | Agricultural products | 3,805 | 4,262 | 4,742 | 5,512 | 6,167 | 6,892 | 181 |
| Ukraine | Food | 3,377 | 3,774 | 4,159 | 4,903 | 5,576 | 6,327 | 187 |
| Ukraine/World | Total merchandise | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 136 |
| Ukraine/World | Agricultural products | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 157 |
| Ukraine/World | Food | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 157 |
| Ukraine | Agricultural products/total merchandise | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 125 |
| Indicator | Merchandise export by product group – annual (millions, USD) | 2020–2015, % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reporting economy | Product/sector | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| World | Total merchandise | 16,556,508 | 16,039,355 | 17,742,592 | 19,546,006 | 19,004,555 | 17,645,180 | 107 |
| World | Agricultural products | 1,564,085 | 1,584,129 | 1,725,209 | 1,804,030 | 1,779,888 | 1,803,125 | 115 |
| World | Food | 1,331,133 | 1,355,836 | 1,468,845 | 1,530,116 | 1,526,959 | 1,568,080 | 118 |
| Ukraine | Total merchandise | 38,127 | 36,360 | 43,265 | 47,336 | 50,054 | 49,192 | 129 |
| Ukraine | Agricultural products | 15,296 | 15,983 | 18,460 | 19,478 | 22,891 | 22,931 | 150 |
| Ukraine | Food | 14,476 | 15,218 | 17,704 | 18,520 | 22,020 | 22,089 | 153 |
| Ukraine/World | Total merchandise | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 121 |
| Ukraine/World | Agricultural products | 0.98 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 130 |
| Ukraine/World | Food | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 130 |
| Ukraine | Agricultural products/total merchandise | 40 | 44 | 43 | 41 | 46 | 47 | 116 |
[i] Source: Own calculations, based on FAO (2022b).
Table 4.
The rank of Ukraine among the largest international producers and exporters of agricultural products (2021–2022 marketing year)
Tabelle 4. Rang der Ukraine unter den global größten Produzenten und Exporteuren landwirtschaftlicher Produkte
| Product | Value (billion $) | Volume (1,000 MT) | Rank among global producers/exporters | % of global production /exports | Top markets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Production | 41,900 | #6 | 3.50% | China $1.9B, EU $1.8B, Egypt $0.5B | |
| Export | 5.9 | 23,000 | #4 | 12% | ||
| Wheat | Production | 33,000 | #7 | 4.30% | Egypt $0.9B, Indonesia $0.7B, Turkey $0.4B | |
| Export | 5.1 | 19,000 | #5 | 9% | ||
| Barley | Production | 9,900 | #4 | 6.80% | China $0.7B, Turkey $0.2B, Saudi Arabia $0.1B | |
| Export | 1.3 | 5,800 | #3 | 17% | ||
| Sunflower | Production | 17,500 | #1 | 30.60% | ||
| Export | 75 | #9 | 3% | |||
| Sunflower Oil | Production | 5,676 | #2 | 30.60% | India $1.9B, EU $1.9B, China $0.9B | |
| Export | 6.4 | 4,950 | #1 | 46% | ||
| Sunflower Meal | Production | 5,452 | #2 | 27.50% | ||
| Export | 4,100 | #1 | 54% | |||
| Rapeseed | Production | 3,015 | #6 | 4.20% | EU $1.1B, Pakistan $0.2B, UK $0.2B | |
| Export | 1.7 | 2,700 | #3 | 20% | ||
[i] Source: Own calculations based on FAS (2022b).
Table 5.
Product groups of Ukrainian export in 2020
Tabelle 5. Produktgruppen des ukrainischen Exports in 2020
| Product group | Cost, million USD | Five major target markets, % of general cost of exported products to the given countries |
|---|---|---|
| Cereals | 9,416.9 | China (corn – 74.5%, barley – 25.3%), Egypt (wheat – 54.5%, corn – 45.4%), Indonesia (wheat – 99.4%), Spain (corn – 84.6%, wheat – 13%), the Netherlands (corn – 98.7%) |
| Oil crops | 1,798.7 | Germany (rapeseed – 72.5%, soy – 25%), Turkey (soy – 85.2%, rapeseed – 10.6%), Belgium (rapeseed – 99.5%), the Netherlands (rapeseed – 72.5%, soy – 25%), Belorussia (soy – 99.9%) |
| Vegetable oil | 5,676 | India (sunflower oil – 99.4%), China (sunflower oil – 87.2%, soy oil – 6.7%, rape oil – 6.1%), the Netherlands (sunflower oil – 99.5%), Spain (sunflower oil – 99.9%), Iraq (sunflower oil – 100%) |
| Meat and cold cuts | 652 | Saudi Arabia (meat and edible poultry by-products – 100%), the Netherlands (meat and edible poultry by-products – 99.9%), the UAE (meat and edible poultry by-products – 92.6%), Belorussia (meat and edible poultry by-products – 66.7%), Azerbaijan (meat and edible poultry by-products – 47.9%) |
| Milk and dairy products | 172 | Moldova (butter – 33.5%, cheeses – 24.3%), Kazakhstan (cheeses – 55.3%, butter – 19.1%), Georgia (condensed milk – 32.2%, butter – 38.4%), Azerbaijan (butter – 71.2%), China (whey – 75.9%) |
| Fish and fish products | 42 | Germany (filleted fish – 81.6%), Denmark (filleted fish – 88.5%), Japan (filleted fish – 100%), Lithuania (filleted fish – 53.2%), Belorussia (crustaceous – 99.9%) |
| Fresh vegetables | 29 | Poland (peppers, aubergines, pumpkins, etc. – 27.5%, cucumbers – 34.3%), Belorussia (tomatoes – 29.2%, cabbage – 34.1%), Moldova (tomatoes – 42.3%, carrots, beets, celery – 22.8%), Spain (beans – 99%), Romania (onions – 40.5%, peppers, aubergines, pumpkins, etc. – 39.1%) |
| Fresh fruit and berries | 24 | Poland (berries – 70.6%, melons, watermelons – 24.3%), Belorussia (apples, pears, quince – 54.1%, apricots, sweet cherries, etc. – 13.4%, berries – 11.8%), Moldova (melons, watermelons – 55.9%, apples, pears, quince – 22.5%), the Netherlands (berries – 95.2%), the UAE (apples, pears, quince – 90.3%) |
| Nuts, dried fruit, candied fruit | 103 | France (walnuts – 100%), Turkey (walnuts – 99.7%), Greece (walnuts – 100%), Azerbaijan (walnuts – 99.6%), Germany (walnuts – 89%) |
| Cocoa and cocoa products | 201.4 | Russian Federation (cocoa paste – 99.3%), Romania (chocolate – 100%), Belorussia (chocolate – 99.9%), Kazakhstan (chocolate – 99.9%), Bulgaria (chocolate – 100%) |
| Honey, sugar and sugar products | 389 | Poland (natural honey – 64.2%, confectionery without cocoa – 30.7%), Germany (natural honey – 69.5%, confectionery without cocoa – 30.4%), Romania (confectionery without cocoa – 59.2%, natural honey – 22.7%), Turkey (sugar – 52.6%, natural honey – 29.5%), Belorussia (confectionery without cocoa – 88%) |
[i] Source: Own depiction, based on Ivchenko et al. (2021).