Figure 1.
Results of multiple regression analysis of war consequences in Ukraine for global food price index and global supply market of cerealsTabelle 2_ Ergebnisse der multiplen Regressionsanalyse zu Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf den Lebensmittelpreisindex
| Original computing data | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indices | Years | ||||||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Food price index (normal) | 120.13 | 115.03 | 93.05 | 91.92 | 98.02 | 95.92 | 95.10 | 98.13 | 125.73 |
| Supply world cereal market, million t | 3,149 | 3,279 | 3,353 | 3,455 | 3,518 | 3,501 | 3,545 | 3,604 | 3,644 |
| Exports Ukraine total cereals million t | 62.9 | 63.65 | 59.94 | 65.53 | 60.83 | 69.29 | 74.73 | 64.61 | 85.62 |
| Exports Ukraine wheat million t | 9.73 | 11.25 | 17.42 | 18.1 | 17.75 | 15.94 | 21.03 | 16.83 | 19 |
| Production Ukraine total cereals, million t | 62.9 | 63.65 | 59.94 | 65.53 | 60.83 | 69.29 | 74.73 | 64.61 | 85.62 |
The development of the world and Ukrainian volumes of agricultural trade for export and importTabelle 3_ Entwicklung des globalen und ukrainischen Handelsvolumens
| Indicator | Merchandise import by product group – annual (millions, USD) | 2020–2015, % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reporting economy | Product/sector | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| World | Total merchandise | 16,737,067 | 16,210,510 | 17,996,159 | 19,840,118 | 19,316,692 | 17,871,990 | 107 |
| World | Agricultural products | 1,599,244 | 1,604,023 | 1,766,106 | 1,856,514 | 1,827,560 | 1,849,613 | 116 |
| World | Food | 1,344,459 | 1,358,280 | 1,488,549 | 1,556,537 | 1,553,561 | 1,601,522 | 119 |
| Ukraine | Total merchandise | 37,517 | 39,252 | 49,609 | 57,188 | 60,800 | 54,337 | 145 |
| Ukraine | Agricultural products | 3,805 | 4,262 | 4,742 | 5,512 | 6,167 | 6,892 | 181 |
| Ukraine | Food | 3,377 | 3,774 | 4,159 | 4,903 | 5,576 | 6,327 | 187 |
| Ukraine/World | Total merchandise | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 136 |
| Ukraine/World | Agricultural products | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 157 |
| Ukraine/World | Food | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 157 |
| Ukraine | Agricultural products/total merchandise | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 125 |
The rank of Ukraine among the largest international producers and exporters of agricultural products (2021–2022 marketing year)Tabelle 4_ Rang der Ukraine unter den global größten Produzenten und Exporteuren landwirtschaftlicher Produkte
| Product | Value (billion $) | Volume (1,000 MT) | Rank among global producers/exporters | % of global production /exports | Top markets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Production | 41,900 | #6 | 3.50% | China $1.9B, EU $1.8B, Egypt $0.5B | |
| Export | 5.9 | 23,000 | #4 | 12% | ||
| Wheat | Production | 33,000 | #7 | 4.30% | Egypt $0.9B, Indonesia $0.7B, Turkey $0.4B | |
| Export | 5.1 | 19,000 | #5 | 9% | ||
| Barley | Production | 9,900 | #4 | 6.80% | China $0.7B, Turkey $0.2B, Saudi Arabia $0.1B | |
| Export | 1.3 | 5,800 | #3 | 17% | ||
| Sunflower | Production | 17,500 | #1 | 30.60% | ||
| Export | 75 | #9 | 3% | |||
| Sunflower Oil | Production | 5,676 | #2 | 30.60% | India $1.9B, EU $1.9B, China $0.9B | |
| Export | 6.4 | 4,950 | #1 | 46% | ||
| Sunflower Meal | Production | 5,452 | #2 | 27.50% | ||
| Export | 4,100 | #1 | 54% | |||
| Rapeseed | Production | 3,015 | #6 | 4.20% | EU $1.1B, Pakistan $0.2B, UK $0.2B | |
| Export | 1.7 | 2,700 | #3 | 20% | ||
Impact of the war in Ukraine on the global GDP and global tradeTabelle 1_ Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf das globale GDP und den globalen Handel
| The original computing data | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indices | Years | ||||||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Gross domestic product: World, million US dollars | 77,097,370.2 | 78,991,149.9 | 74,598,693.1 | 75,812,114.3 | 80,640,541.5 | 85,748,800.5 | 87,106,406.7 | 84,659,888 | 96,100,091 |
| Merchandise exports by product group: world, annual, million US dollars | 18,959,331 | 19,005,917 | 16,556,508 | 16,039,355 | 17,742,592 | 19,546,006 | 19,004,555 | 17,645,180 | 22,283,819 |
| Production of Ukraine: total cereals, million t | 62.9 | 63.65 | 59.94 | 65.53 | 60.83 | 69.29 | 74.73 | 64.61 | 85.62 |
Product groups of Ukrainian export in 2020Tabelle 5_ Produktgruppen des ukrainischen Exports in 2020
| Product group | Cost, million USD | Five major target markets, % of general cost of exported products to the given countries |
|---|---|---|
| Cereals | 9,416.9 | China (corn – 74.5%, barley – 25.3%), Egypt (wheat – 54.5%, corn – 45.4%), Indonesia (wheat – 99.4%), Spain (corn – 84.6%, wheat – 13%), the Netherlands (corn – 98.7%) |
| Oil crops | 1,798.7 | Germany (rapeseed – 72.5%, soy – 25%), Turkey (soy – 85.2%, rapeseed – 10.6%), Belgium (rapeseed – 99.5%), the Netherlands (rapeseed – 72.5%, soy – 25%), Belorussia (soy – 99.9%) |
| Vegetable oil | 5,676 | India (sunflower oil – 99.4%), China (sunflower oil – 87.2%, soy oil – 6.7%, rape oil – 6.1%), the Netherlands (sunflower oil – 99.5%), Spain (sunflower oil – 99.9%), Iraq (sunflower oil – 100%) |
| Meat and cold cuts | 652 | Saudi Arabia (meat and edible poultry by-products – 100%), the Netherlands (meat and edible poultry by-products – 99.9%), the UAE (meat and edible poultry by-products – 92.6%), Belorussia (meat and edible poultry by-products – 66.7%), Azerbaijan (meat and edible poultry by-products – 47.9%) |
| Milk and dairy products | 172 | Moldova (butter – 33.5%, cheeses – 24.3%), Kazakhstan (cheeses – 55.3%, butter – 19.1%), Georgia (condensed milk – 32.2%, butter – 38.4%), Azerbaijan (butter – 71.2%), China (whey – 75.9%) |
| Fish and fish products | 42 | Germany (filleted fish – 81.6%), Denmark (filleted fish – 88.5%), Japan (filleted fish – 100%), Lithuania (filleted fish – 53.2%), Belorussia (crustaceous – 99.9%) |
| Fresh vegetables | 29 | Poland (peppers, aubergines, pumpkins, etc. – 27.5%, cucumbers – 34.3%), Belorussia (tomatoes – 29.2%, cabbage – 34.1%), Moldova (tomatoes – 42.3%, carrots, beets, celery – 22.8%), Spain (beans – 99%), Romania (onions – 40.5%, peppers, aubergines, pumpkins, etc. – 39.1%) |
| Fresh fruit and berries | 24 | Poland (berries – 70.6%, melons, watermelons – 24.3%), Belorussia (apples, pears, quince – 54.1%, apricots, sweet cherries, etc. – 13.4%, berries – 11.8%), Moldova (melons, watermelons – 55.9%, apples, pears, quince – 22.5%), the Netherlands (berries – 95.2%), the UAE (apples, pears, quince – 90.3%) |
| Nuts, dried fruit, candied fruit | 103 | France (walnuts – 100%), Turkey (walnuts – 99.7%), Greece (walnuts – 100%), Azerbaijan (walnuts – 99.6%), Germany (walnuts – 89%) |
| Cocoa and cocoa products | 201.4 | Russian Federation (cocoa paste – 99.3%), Romania (chocolate – 100%), Belorussia (chocolate – 99.9%), Kazakhstan (chocolate – 99.9%), Bulgaria (chocolate – 100%) |
| Honey, sugar and sugar products | 389 | Poland (natural honey – 64.2%, confectionery without cocoa – 30.7%), Germany (natural honey – 69.5%, confectionery without cocoa – 30.4%), Romania (confectionery without cocoa – 59.2%, natural honey – 22.7%), Turkey (sugar – 52.6%, natural honey – 29.5%), Belorussia (confectionery without cocoa – 88%) |