Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Polar Motion Using Weighted Least Squares Extrapolation and Vector Autoregressive Modeling Cover

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Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Polar Motion Using Weighted Least Squares Extrapolation and Vector Autoregressive Modeling

Artificial Satellites

Volume 58 (2023): Issue 2 (June 2023)

By: Yu Lei, Danning Zhao and Min Guo

Open Access

|Jul 2023

Figures & Tables

Absolute differences (in mas) between the xp and yp observations and their predictions calculated at different starting prediction days

Mean absolute errors (in mas) of the xp and yp predictions up to 365 days into the future

Mean absolute errors (in mas) of the xp and yp predictions up to 365 days into the future

Maximum absolute differences (in mas) between the pole coordinate observations and their predictions up to different prediction ranges

Prediction technology	x_p					y_p
Prediction technology	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d
LS+AR	11.28	29.31	67.22	74.84	77.03	9.76	19.66	64.78	73.86	84.96
WLS+VAR (equal weights)	10.63	21.22	51.89	65.71	69.16	8.65	14.16	47.69	71.76	76.66
WLS+VAR (piecewise weights)	11.07	23.57	46.11	61.05	64.70	9.17	13.24	47.29	63.55	70.80

Mean absolute errors (in mas) for different prediction ranges by the LS+AR and WLS+VAR

Prediction technology	x_p					y_p
Prediction technology	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d
LS+AR	2.93	7.71	21.83	24.57	30.86	1.94	5.43	21.90	24.04	27.90
WLS+VAR (equal weights)	2.90	7.15	15.22	20.35	22.69	1.79	4.27	15.91	22.88	23.40
WLS+VAR (piecewise weights)	2.87	7.03	13.97	18.47	20.52	1.81	4.41	15.41	21.17	21.82

Mean absolute errors (in mas) for different prediction ranges by the WLS+VAR and participants in the 1st EOP PCC

Prediction technology	x_p					y_p
Prediction technology	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d
LS+AR (Kosek 051)	3.56	9.52	21.16	23.85	19.78	2.01	6.08	25.65	21.86	28.91
LS+AR (Kalarus 061)	3.33	8.78	19.36	17.46	14.50	1.83	5.01	21.28	25.10	21.32
AR (Zotov 091)	4.17	9.31	—	—	—	2.30	5.64	—	—	—
Neural networks (Zotov 093)	4.21	11.51	—	—	—	2.14	6.08	—	—	—
WLS+VAR (piecewise weights)	3.49	9.20	21.13	29.67	28.04	1.89	5.84	23.18	27.58	32.55

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/arsa-2023-0004 | Journal eISSN: 2083-6104 | Journal ISSN: 1509-3859

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Language: English

Page range: 42 - 55

Submitted on: Jan 5, 2023

Accepted on: May 17, 2023

Published on: Jul 18, 2023

Published by: Polish Academy of Sciences, Space Research Centre

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

Keywords:

prediction model,

weighted least squares,

vector autoregressive

Related subjects:

Geosciences, other

© 2023 Yu Lei, Danning Zhao, Min Guo, published by Polish Academy of Sciences, Space Research Centre
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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