Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Polar Motion Using Weighted Least Squares Extrapolation and Vector Autoregressive Modeling

Prediction technology	x_p					y_p
Prediction technology	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d
LS+AR	11.28	29.31	67.22	74.84	77.03	9.76	19.66	64.78	73.86	84.96
WLS+VAR (equal weights)	10.63	21.22	51.89	65.71	69.16	8.65	14.16	47.69	71.76	76.66
WLS+VAR (piecewise weights)	11.07	23.57	46.11	61.05	64.70	9.17	13.24	47.29	63.55	70.80

Mean absolute errors (in mas) of the x_p and y_p predictions up to 365 days into the future

Table 2.

Mean absolute errors (in mas) for different prediction ranges by the LS+AR and WLS+VAR

Prediction technology	x_p					y_p
Prediction technology	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d
LS+AR	2.93	7.71	21.83	24.57	30.86	1.94	5.43	21.90	24.04	27.90
WLS+VAR (equal weights)	2.90	7.15	15.22	20.35	22.69	1.79	4.27	15.91	22.88	23.40
WLS+VAR (piecewise weights)	2.87	7.03	13.97	18.47	20.52	1.81	4.41	15.41	21.17	21.82

Table 3.

Mean absolute errors (in mas) for different prediction ranges by the WLS+VAR and participants in the 1st EOP PCC

Prediction technology	x_p					y_p
Prediction technology	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d	10 d	30 d	150 d	270 d	365 d
LS+AR (Kosek 051)	3.56	9.52	21.16	23.85	19.78	2.01	6.08	25.65	21.86	28.91
LS+AR (Kalarus 061)	3.33	8.78	19.36	17.46	14.50	1.83	5.01	21.28	25.10	21.32
AR (Zotov 091)	4.17	9.31	—	—	—	2.30	5.64	—	—	—
Neural networks (Zotov 093)	4.21	11.51	—	—	—	2.14	6.08	—	—	—
WLS+VAR (piecewise weights)	3.49	9.20	21.13	29.67	28.04	1.89	5.84	23.18	27.58	32.55

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/arsa-2023-0004 | Journal eISSN: 2083-6104 | Journal ISSN: 1509-3859 (formerly 0208-841X)

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Language: English

Page range: 42 - 55

Submitted on: Jan 5, 2023

Accepted on: May 17, 2023

Published on: Jul 18, 2023

Published by: Polish Academy of Sciences, Space Research Centre

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

polar motion,

prediction model,

weighted least squares,

vector autoregressive

Related subjects:

Geosciences,

Geosciences, other

© 2023 Yu Lei, Danning Zhao, Min Guo, published by Polish Academy of Sciences, Space Research Centre
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 58 (2023): Issue 2 (June 2023)

Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Polar Motion Using Weighted Least Squares Extrapolation and Vector Autoregressive Modeling

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Table 1.

Figure 2.

Table 2.

Figure 3.

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