Hybrid regime dynamics in semi-presidential systems under armed conflicts (% of country-years): Indicator view_
| Type of semi-presidentialism | Democratic dynamics | Uncertain dynamics | Autocratic dynamics | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | |
| Categorization 1 | FiW project | |||||
| President-parliamentarism | 47.5 | 43.8 | 66.1 | 27.4 | 67.4 | 28.8 |
| Premier-presidentialism | 52.5 | 29.3 | 33.9 | 39.4 | 32.6 | 31.3 |
| Polity project | ||||||
| President-parliamentarism | 61.6 | 58.9 | 60.0 | 6.7 | 83.8 | 34.4 |
| Premier-presidentialism | 38.4 | 76.1 | 40.0 | 10.9 | 16.2 | 13.0 |
| Categorization 2 | FiW project | |||||
| Presidentialized | 45.9 | 24.1 | 78.0 | 39.7 | 80.8 | 36.2 |
| Balanced | 45.9 | 58.3 | 20.3 | 25.0 | 15.4 | 16.7 |
| Parliamentarized | 8.2 | 62.5 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 25.0 |
| Polity project | ||||||
| Presidentialized | 61.6 | 58.2 | 83.3 | 5.5 | 89.2 | 36.3 |
| Balanced | 32.6 | 75.0 | 16.7 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| Parliamentarized | 5.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Spearman rank-order correlations between semi-presidentialism (SP) categorizations, conflict levels, and socio-economic and political indicators/variables_
| Spearman rank-order correlations (Data ++) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD Pairwise deleted | |||||||
| Marked correlations are significant at p < 0.05 | |||||||
| Variables | WGI (GE) | Gini coefficient | GDP (per capita) | Economic freedom index | HDI | FiW score | Polity score |
| Conflict | –0.187 | –0.125 | –0.039 | 0.013 | 0.179 | –0.153 | 0.152 |
| Categorization 1 of SP (Shugart & Carey) | –0.039 | 0.452 | –0.404 | –0.219 | –0.222 | 0.151 | –0.227 |
| Categorization 2 of SP (Elgie) | 0.146 | 0.182 | –0.036 | –0.254 | –0.344 | 0.320 | –0.313 |
Mann–Whitney U test comparison between president-parliamentarism and premier-presidentialism_
| Indicators/Variables | Rank sum, president-parliamentarism | Rank sum, premier-presidentialism | U | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGI (GE) | 3455.0 | 3926.0 | 1744.0 | 0.669 |
| Gini coefficient | 1592.5 | 1182.5 | 321.5 | 0.000 |
| GDP (per capita) | 6892.0 | 7643.0 | 1842.0 | 0.000 |
| Economic freedom index | 2751.5 | 3803.5 | 1211.5 | 0.020 |
| HDI | 5736.5 | 5739.5 | 2081.5 | 0.007 |
| FiW score | 9192.5 | 5685.5 | 2984.5 | 0.052 |
| Polity score | 5614.0 | 3702.0 | 1519.0 | 0.011 |
Average outcomes of semi-presidentialism in nascent transitional states with hybrid regimes under armed conflicts: Generalization view_
| Indicators/Variables*, (averaged data) | Semi-presidentialism | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| The initial (first analytical) year of armed conflict | The final (last analytical) year of armed conflict | In total | |
| WGI (GE) | –0.75 | –0.72 | –0.50 |
| Gini coefficient | 37.4 | 34.7 | 34.5 |
| GDP (per capita) | $1426 | $2890 | $1848 |
| Economic freedom index | 5.73 | 5.86 | 6.18 |
| HDI | 0.565 | 0.621 | 0.625 |
| FiW score | 4.53 | 4.84 | 4.32 |
| Polity score | +2,00 | +3,00 | +3,16 |
| Conflict level/type | Partially unified majority system | Partially unified majority system | Fully unified majority system |
Average outcomes of different types of semi-presidentialism in nascent transitional states with hybrid regimes under armed conflicts: Categorization view_
| Indicators/Variables* (averaged data) | Types of semi-presidentialism | |
|---|---|---|
| Categorization 1 | ||
| President-parliamentarism | Premier-presidentialism | |
| WGI (GE) | –0.50 | –0.50 |
| Gini coefficient | 37.4 | 32.4 |
| GDP (per capita) | $1230 | $2732 |
| Economic Freedom Index | 5.88 | 6.47 |
| HDI | 0.610 | 0.645 |
| FiW Score | 4.76 | 4.40 |
| Polity Score | +2.34 | +4.17 |
| Conflict level/type | Fully unified majority system | Partially unified majority system |
Intra-executive conflict level/type in semi-presidential systems under armed conflicts (% of country-years): Indicator view_
| Type of semi-presidentialism | Fully unified majority | Partially unified majority | Fully unified minority | Partially unified minority | Divided majority | Divided minority | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | Inter-type | Intra-type | |
| Categorization 1 | ||||||||||||
| President-parliam. | 59.4 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 17.8 | 100 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Premier-president. | 40.6 | 74.0 | 21.7 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.9 | 13.7 | 100 | 5.5 |
| Categorization 2 | ||||||||||||
| Presidentialized | 75.9 | 85.6 | 69.6 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Balanced | 22.6 | 62.5 | 17.4 | 8.3 | 100 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.3 | 22.9 | 50.0 | 4.2 |
| Parliamentarized | 1.5 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 37.5 | 50.0 | 0.0 |
Cases of semi-presidentialism in nascent transitional states with hybrid regimes under armed conflicts (as of December 2024)_
| State | Year coverage | Armed conflict | Categorization 1 of semi-presidentialism | Categorization 2 of semi-presidentialism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 1991–2018 | Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | President-parliamentary/Premier-presidential | Presidentialized/Balanced |
| Azerbaijan | 1991–1995 | First Nagorno-Karabakh War | President-parliamentary | Balanced |
| Cameroon | 2017–2024 | Anglophone Crisis in Cameroon | President-parliamentary | Presidentialized |
| Chad | 2005–2010 | Chadian Civil War | Premier-presidential | Presidentialized |
| Croatia | 1991–1995 | Croatian War of Independence | President-parliamentary | Presidentialized |
| Georgia | 2004–2024 | Georgian-Ossetian/Abkhazia Conflict | President-parliamentary/Premier-presidential | Presidentialized/Balanced/Parliamentarized |
| Haiti | 2020–2024 | Gang War in Haiti | Premier-presidential | Presidentialized/Parliamentarized |
| Mali | 2012–2022 | Mali War | Premier-presidential | Presidentialized/Balanced |
| Moldova | 1991–2000, 2017–2024 | Transnistria Conflict | Premier-presidential | Balanced/Presidentialized |
| Mozambique | 2017–2024 | Insurgency in Cabo Delgado | President-parliamentary | Presidentialized |
| Russia | 1994–1996, 1999–2000 | First and Second Chechen Wars | President-parliamentary | Presidentialized |
| Sri Lanka | 1983–2009 | Sri Lankan Civil War | President-parliamentary | Presidentialized/Balanced/Parliamentarized |
| Ukraine | 2014–2024 | Russo-Ukrainian War | Premier-presidential | Balanced/Presidentialized |
| Yemen | 1994–2011 | Yemeni Civil War, Houthi Insurgency/Al-Qaeda Insurgency | President-parliamentary | Presidentialized |
Kruskal–Wallis test comparison between presidentialized, balanced, and parliamentarized types_
| Indicators/Variables | Mean rank, parliamentarized | Mean rank, balanced | Mean rank, presidentialized | H | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGI (GE) | 61.83 | 50.25 | 64.40 | 3.45 | 0.1780 |
| Gini coefficient | 67.00 | 31.10 | 41.05 | 5.64 | 0.0595 |
| GDP (per capita) | 90.57 | 87.59 | 84.32 | 0.23 | 0.8924 |
| Economic freedom index | 62.17 | 74.12 | 52.16 | 8.61 | 0.0135 |
| HDI | 81.75 | 101.26 | 65.36 | 20.21 | 0.0000 |
| FiW Score | 66.31 | 63.06 | 97.59 | 18.13 | 0.0001 |
| Polity score | 86.80 | 85.18 | 60.16 | 13.34 | 0.0013 |