Semi-presidentialism, hybrid regimes, and political transitions under armed conflicts and exogenous shocks: A comparative statistical analysis

This article investigates the prospects and risks of semi-presidentialism in nascent states with hybrid political regimes, assessing how different institutional configurations both influence and are shaped by political transitions, particularly under conditions of armed conflict and other exogenous shocks. While prior studies have extensively examined semi-presidentialism from institutional and endogenous perspectives, its interaction with non-institutional and exogenous shocks – such as wars, armed conflicts, and crises – remains insufficiently explored. Employing a comparative and statistical approach, this study analyzes 14 states that combine semi-presidential institutional designs with hybrid political regime characteristics and varying degrees of conflict exposure. It investigates how distinct types of semi-presidentialism shape trajectories of democratization, autocratization, and socio-economic development during and after armed conflicts. The analysis differentiates between premier-presidential and president-parliamentary forms, as well as parliamentarized, presidentialized, and balanced models, to assess their specific effects on democratic performance and development. The results indicate that premier-presidential and parliamentarized semi-presidential systems are generally more conducive to democratization and development outcomes, whereas president-parliamentary and presidentialized configurations tend to reinforce autocratic tendencies, particularly in times of war. Notably, the findings reveal a paradoxical pattern: higher levels of inter-institutional conflict within balanced or parliamentarized semi-presidential systems correlate with stronger democratic performance, suggesting that structured power competition may enhance both institutional and democratic resilience. The study contributes to the literature on institutional design and regime transformation by providing a comparative-empirical framework for interpreting how semi-presidential configurations in hybrid political regimes function under crisis conditions and shape post-war political transitions and reconstruction.