Polarized trust and democratic decline. Rethinking resilience in the V4 countries

If political trust is foundational to democracy, why do some countries remain stable while others experience democratic erosion, despite similar levels of trust? To address this question, this article shifts focus from country-level averages to the partisan polarization of trust, arguing that its distribution between government supporters and opposition voters offers a more accurate reflection of democratic quality. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and the European Social Survey, the article examines the Visegrad countries – Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Findings show that while there is no clear relationship between country-level averages of trust and democratic quality, higher polarization of trust is clearly associated with lower democratic quality, with polarization preceding democratic decline rather than resulting from it. A critical threshold is also identified – once the trust gap surpasses a certain point, democratic quality tends to erode rapidly. Although the article’s exploratory design calls for a cautious interpretation of the findings, they show the relevance of partisan trust dynamics and provide new perspectives for future research on political trust.