Rising Temperatures and Maize Sector Performance in Zimbabwe: Evidence from 1961–2022

Agriculture remains a key sector in Zimbabwe's economy, with maize serving as the country's major staple crop and a critical source of food security; however, increasing temperatures and climate variability significantly worsen the conditions for its cultivation. The goal of this study is to examine the relationship between rising temperatures and maize-sector performance in Zimbabwe, using regression models and FAOSTAT data for the period 1961–2022. The findings reveal statistically significant negative associations between temperature anomalies and maize production and yields. Higher temperature anomalies were also positively associated with maize imports, suggesting greater dependence on external food supplies during periods characterised by higher temperatures and weaker domestic maize performance. First-difference models further identified significant negative associations between annual temperature changes and annual changes in maize production and yield. These results indicate that Zimbabwe's maize sector is highly vulnerable to climatic variability, although the estimated relationships should not be interpreted as temperature-specific causal effects. The study recommends strengthening climate-smart agriculture, developing irrigation, adopting drought-resistant seeds, and implementing broader climate adaptation strategies to improve resilience in Zimbabwe's maize sector.