Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Descriptive statistics of the five fresh produce markets on their price per ton for tomatoes in 2019–2024
| Variables | Observations | Mean | Std. Dev | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannesburg | 72 | 9 226.68 | 3 044.77 | 4 525.69 | 19 810.40 |
| Tshwane | 72 | 9 143.89 | 2 806.65 | 4 707.61 | 18 138.69 |
| Bloemfontein | 72 | 10 178.21 | 3 355.72 | 4 796.30 | 23 387.15 |
| Cape Town | 72 | 9 227.30 | 2 788.07 | 4 400.00 | 16 910.14 |
| Durban | 72 | 9 088.53 | 2 891.60 | 4 500.00 | 17 620.26 |
VAR’s Lagrange-Multiplier test
| Lag | P-value |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.416 |
| 2 | 0.603 |
Top 10 global leading tomato producers
| Rank | Country | Production (Tonnes) | % of global tomato production |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 68 241 811 | 36.7 |
| 2 | India | 20 694 000 | 11.1 |
| 3 | Turkey | 13 000 000 | 7.0 |
| 4 | United States | 10 199 753 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Egypt | 6 275 444 | 3.4 |
| 6 | Italy | 6 136 380 | 3.3 |
| 7 | Mexico | 4 207 889 | 2.3 |
| 8 | Brazil | 3 809 986 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Nigeria | 3 684 566 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Spain | 3 651 940 | 2.0 |
Johansen cointegration results
| Maximum rank | Trace Test | Maximum Eigenvalue Test | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eigenvalue | Trace statistics | 5% critical value | Maximum Eigenvalue Statistics | 5% Critical Value | |
| 0 | 185.129** | 68.52 | 60.540** | 33.46 | |
| 1 | 0.574 | 124.589** | 47.21 | 45.2556** | 27.07 |
| 2 | 0.471 | 79.333** | 29.68 | 29.921** | 20.97 |
| 3 | 0.344 | 49.412** | 15.41 | 26.495** | 14.07 |
| 4 | 0.311 | 22.918** | 3.76 | 22.918** | 3.76 |
| 5 | 0.276 | ||||
Jarque-Bera test
| Variable | P-value |
|---|---|
| Johannesburg | 0.942 |
| Tshwane | 0.768 |
| Bloemfontein | 0.733 |
| Cape Town | 0.865 |
| Durban | 0.270 |
| All | 0.939 |
Global tomato production by continent
| Continent | Production of tomatoes based on continent in 2022 | % of world production |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | 116 993 632 | 62.62 |
| America | 24 445 972 | 13.08 |
| Europe | 22 810 698 | 12.20 |
| Africa | 22 228 893 | 11.89 |
| Oceania | 342 021 | 0.18 |
Eigenvalue stability condition
| Eingen value | Modulus |
|---|---|
| 0.518173 + 0.2788821i | 0.588454 |
| 0.518179 – 0.2788821i | 0.588454 |
| 0.2597886 | 0.259789 |
| 0.2058214 | 0.205821 |
| −0.05094438 | 0.050944 |
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test
| Variable | Level form | First difference | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Test statistic | 5% Critical value | Test statistic | 5% Critical value | |
| Johannesburg | −4.875*** | −2.913 | −9.356*** | −2.914 |
| Tshwane | −4.932*** | −2.913 | −9.378*** | −2.913 |
| Bloemfontein | −5.140*** | −2.913 | −9.837*** | −2.913 |
| Cape Town | −4.688*** | −2.913 | −9.122*** | −2.915 |
| Durban | −5.313*** | −2.913 | −9.984*** | −2.917 |
VAR lag length results
| Lag | p | FPE | AIC | HQIC | SBIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5e+30 | 83.648 | 83.713 | 83.812* | |
| 1 | 0.000 | 8.7e+29* | 83.128* | 83.516* | 84.108 |
| 2 | 0.122 | 1.1e+30 | 83.373 | 84.084 | 85.168 |
| 3 | 0.014 | 1.3e30 | 83.476 | 84.510 | 86.087 |
| 4 | 0.000 | 9.8e+29 | 83.147 | 84.505 | 86.574 |
Results of the Vector Autoregression Model
| Regressors | JHB average tomato price | Tshwane average tomato price | Bloem average tomato price | CPT average tomato price | DBN average tomato price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JHB | (1.868) | (1.540) | (2.200) | (1.329) | (1.549) |
| JHB | (1.115) | (0.931) | (1.065) | (1.193) | (0.581) |
| Tshwane | (−0.265) | (−0119) | (−0.680) | −0.494 | (−0.464) |
| Tshwane | (−0.254) | (−0.325) | (0.061) | (−0.643) | (0.088) |
| Bloem | (−0.760) | (−0.791) | (−0.640) | (−0.422) | (−0.688) |
| Bloem | (−0.749) | (−0.658) | (−0.806) | (−0.319) | (−0.499) |
| CPT | −(0.124) | (0.082) | (0.135) | (0.351) | (0.055) |
| CPT | (−0.243) | (−0.189) | (−0.09) | (−0.110) | (−0.156) |
| DBN | (−0.270) | (0.099) | (−0.493) | (−0.274) | (0.010) |
| DBN | (0.201) | (0.312) | (−0.063) | (−0.058) | (0.052) |