Abstract
The outbreak of war in Ukraine resulted in numerous political and economic consequences. One of its effects was a rise in the prices of agricultural and food products worldwide. In this study, we examine the question of how food prices increased in Poland and the economic mechanism underlying the conflict’s impact on prices in Poland. The article compares the actual level of monthly food price inflation in Poland during the war with counterfactual values obtained from univariate forecasting models. The results indicate a significant increase in food price inflation in Poland, which not only correlates with the prices of agricultural products but primarily with energy prices and labour costs. The most significant price increases were observed for meat and dairy products, while prices for fruits and vegetables were the least affected.