
Capturing Human-Biodiversity-Ecosystem Interactions in Advanced Models of the Land-System
References
- Alexander, P., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Henry, R., Pugh, T. A. M., Rounsevell, M. D. A., & Arneth, A. (2018). Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global Change Biology, 24(7), 2791–2809. 10.1111/gcb.14110
- Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Anderson, C. M., Bartuska, A., Ciais, P., Cullenward, D., Field, C. B., Freeman, J., Goetz, S. J., Hicke, J. A., Huntzinger, D., Jackson, R. B., Nickerson, J., Pacala, S., & Randerson, J. T. (2020). Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests. Science, 368(6497),
1327 . 10.1126/science.aaz7005 - Anderegg, W. R. L., Wu, C., Acil, N., Carvalhais, N., Pugh, T. A. M., Sadler, J. P., & Seidl, R. (2022). A climate risk analysis of Earth’s forests in the 21st century. Science, 377(6610), 1099–1103. 10.1126/science.abp9723
- Anderson, K., Buck, H. J., Fuhr, L., Geden, O., Peters, G. P., & Tamme, E. (2023). Controversies of carbon dioxide removal. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4, 808–814. 10.1038/s43017-023-00493-y
- Arneth, A., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Stocker, B. D., Ciais, P., Poulter, B., Bayer, A. D., Bondeau, A., Calle, L., Chini, L. P., Gasser, T., Fader, M., Friedlingstein, P., Kato, E., Li, W., Lindeskog, M., Nabel, J., Pugh, T. A. M., Robertson, E., … Zaehle, S. (2017). Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed. Nature Geoscience, 10(2), 79–84. 10.1038/ngeo2882
- Asner, G. P., Levick, S. R., Kennedy-Bowdoin, T., Knapp, D. E., Emerson, R., Jacobson, J., Colgan, M. S., & Martin, R. E. (2009). Large-scale impacts of herbivores on the structural diversity of African savannas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(12), 4947–4952. 10.1073/pnas.0810637106
- Bacour, C., MacBean, N., Chevallier, F., Léonard, S., Koffi, E. N., & Peylin, P. (2023). Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 20(6), 1089–1111. 10.5194/bg-20-1089-2023
- Bayer, A. D., Fuchs, R., Mey, R., Krause, A., Verburg, P. H., Anthoni, P., & Arneth, A. (2021). Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services. Earth System Dynamics, 12(1), 327–351. 10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
- Berzaghi, F., Longo, M., Ciais, P., Blake, S., Bretagnolle, F., Vieira, S., Scaranello, M., Scarascia-Mugnozza, G., & Doughty, C. E. (2019). Carbon stocks in central African forests enhanced by elephant disturbance. Nature Geoscience, 12(9), 725–729. 10.1038/s41561-019-0395-6
- Bolyn, C., Lejeune, P., Michez, A., & Latte, N. (2022). Mapping tree species proportions from satellite imagery using spectral–spatial deep learning. Remote Sensing of Environment, 280,
113205 . 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113205 - Bond, W. J., & Keeley, J. E. (2005). Fire as a global ‘herbivore’: the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 20(7), 387–394. 10.1016/j.tree.2005.04.025
- Brown, C., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Holman, I. P., & Rounsevell, M. (2019). Achieving the Paris climate goals is challenged by time lags in the land system. Nature Climate Change. 10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5
- Brown, C., Holman, I., & Rounsevell, M. (2021). How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change. Earth Syst. Dynam., 12(1), 211–231. 10.5194/esd-12-211-2021
- Brown, C., Seo, B., & Rounsevell, M. (2019). Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change. Earth Syst. Dynam., 10(4), 809–845. 10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
- Brun, P., Zimmermann, N. E., Graham, C. H., Lavergne, S., Pellissier, L., Münkemüller, T., & Thuiller, W. (2019). The productivity-biodiversity relationship varies across diversity dimensions. Nature Communications, 10(1),
5691 . 10.1038/s41467-019-13678-1 - Cabral, J. S., Mendoza-Ponce, A., da Silva, A. P., Oberpriller, J., Mimet, A., Kieslinger, J., Berger, T., Blechschmidt, J., Brönner, M., Classen, A., Fallert, S., Hartig, F., Hof, C., Hoffmann, M., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Lewerentz, A., Pohle, P., Raeder, U., … Zurell, D. (2024). The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land-use–biodiversity models. People and Nature, 6(5), 1716–1741. 10.1002/pan3.10472
- Chapman, M., Goldstein, B. R., Schell, C. J., Brashares, J. S., Carter, N. H., Ellis-Soto, D., Faxon, H. O., Goldstein, J. E., Halpern, B. S., Longdon, J., Norman, K. E. A., O’Rourke, D., Scoville, C., Xu, L., & Boettiger, C. (2024). Biodiversity monitoring for a just planetary future. Science, 383(6678), 34–36. 10.1126/science.adh8874
- Creutzig, F., Erb, K. H., Haberl, H., Hof, C., Hunsberger, C., & Roe, S. (2021). Considering sustainability thresholds for BECCS in IPCC and biodiversity assessments. Global Change Biology Bioenergy, 13(4), 510–515. 10.1111/gcbb.12798
- Cui, S., Gao, Y., Huang, Y., Shen, L., Zhao, Q., Pan, Y., & Zhuang, S. (2023). Advances and applications of machine learning and deep learning in environmental ecology and health. Environmental Pollution, 335,
122358 . 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122358 - Cummins, J. (2025). The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention. arxiv. 10.48550/arXiv.2509.13397
- Dangal, S. R. S., Tian, H. Q., Lu, C. Q., Ren, W., Pan, S. F., Yang, J., Di Cosmo, N., & Hessl, A. (2017). Integrating herbivore population dynamics into a global land biosphere model: Plugging animals into the earth system. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(8), 2920–2945. 10.1002/2016ms000904
- Davison, C. W., Rahbek, C., & Morueta-Holme, N. (2021). Land-use change and biodiversity: Challenges for assembling evidence on the greatest threat to nature. Global Change Biology, 27(21), 5414–5429. 10.1111/gcb.15846
- Dullinger, I., Essl, F., Moser, D., Erb, K., Haberl, H., & Dullinger, S. (2021). Biodiversity models need to represent land-use intensity more comprehensively. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 30(5), 924–932. 10.1111/geb.13289
- de Paula, M. D., Forrest, M., Langan, L., Bendix, J., Homeier, J., Velescu, A., Wilcke, W., & Hickler, T. (2021). Nutrient cycling drives plant community trait assembly and ecosystem functioning in a tropical mountain biodiversity hotspot. New Phytologist, 232(2), 551–566. 10.1111/nph.17600
- Deprez, A., Leadley, P., Dooley, K., Williamson, P., Cramer, W., Gattuso, J. P., … Creutzig, F. (2024). Sustainability limits needed for CO2 removal. Science, 383(6682), 484–486. 10.1126/science.adj6171
- Diaz General, E., Brown, C., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2025). Using socio-ecological interactions in the land system to estimate Quality of Life for people and nature. Ecosystems & People, in press. in press
- Dooley, K., Pelz, S., & Norton, A. (2024). Understanding land-based carbon dioxide removal in the context of the Rio Conventions. One Earth, 7(9), 1501–1514. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.08.009
- Erb, K.-H., Luyssaert, S., Meyfroidt, P., Pongratz, J., Don, A., Kloster, S., Kuemmerle, T., Fetzel, T., Fuchs, R., Herold, M., Haberl, H., Jones, C. D., Marín-Spiotta, E., McCallum, I., Robertson, E., Seufert, V., Fritz, S., Valade, A., Wiltshire, A., & Dolman, A. J. (2016). Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies. Global Change Biology, 23(2), 512–533. 10.1111/gcb.13443
- Fang, J., & Gentine, P. (2024). Exploring Optimal Complexity for Water Stress Representation in Terrestrial Carbon Models: A Hybrid-Machine Learning Model Approach. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16(12),
e2024MS004308 . 10.1029/2024MS004308 - Farahbakhsh, I., Bauch, C. T., & Anand, M. (2022). Modelling coupled human–environment complexity for the future of the biosphere: strengths, gaps and promising directions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 377(1857),
20210382 . 10.1098/rstb.2021.0382 - Farrell, M. J., Le Guillarme, N., Brierley, L., Hunter, B., Scheepens, D., Willoughby, A., … Mideo, N. (2024). The changing landscape of text mining: a review of approaches for ecology and evolution. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 291(2027),
20240423 . 10.1098/rspb.2024.0423 - Ferretto, A., Anthoni, P., Pugh, T. A. M., Gregor, K., Thurner, M., Natel, C., … Arneth, A. (2025). The impact of changing forest composition in Europe – longest carbon turnover time in unmanaged and broadleaved deciduous forests. Plos One. 10.1371/journal.pone.0334118
- Flombaum, P., Yahdjian, L., & Sala, O. E. (2017). Global-change drivers of ecosystem functioning modulated by natural variability and saturating responses. Global Change Biology, 23(2), 503–511. 10.1111/gcb.13441
- Friedlingstein, P., Dufresne, J. L., Cox, P., & Rayner, P. (2003). How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle? Tellus B, 55, 692–700. 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01461.x
- Friedlingstein, P., Le Quéré, C., O’Sullivan, M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Luijkx, I. T., Li, H., van der Woude, A., Schwingshackl, C., Pongratz, J., Regnier, P., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Jones, M. W., Lan, X., Morgan, E., … Tian, H. (2026). Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget. Nature, 649(8095), 98–103. 10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5
- Friedlingstein, P., O’Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H. M., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., … Zeng, J. Y. (2025). Global carbon budget 2024. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17(3), 965–1039. 10.5194/essd-17-965-2025
- Gabud, R., Lapitan, P., Mariano, V., Mendoza, E., Pampolina, N., Clariño, M. A. A., & Batista-Navarro, R. (2024). Unsupervised literature mining approaches for extracting relationships pertaining to habitats and reproductive conditions of plant species. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 7,
1371411 . 10.3389/frai.2024.1371411 - Gao, Y., Lee, D., Burtch, G., & Fazelpour, S. (2025). Take caution in using LLMs as human surrogates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(24),
e2501660122 . 10.1073/pnas.2501660122 - Gougherty, A. V., & Clipp, H. L. (2024). Testing the reliability of an AI-based large language model to extract ecological information from the scientific literature. NPJ Biodiversity, 3(1),
13 . 10.1038/s44185-024-00043-9 - Hantson, S., Kelley, D. I., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Archibald, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hickler, T., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Nieradzik, L., Rabin, S. S., Prentice, I. C., Sheehan, T., Sitch, S., Teckentrup, L., Voulgarakis, A., & Yue, C. (2020). Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(7), 3299–3318. 10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020
- Harfoot, M. B. J., Newbold, T., Tittensor, D. P., Emmott, S., Hutton, J., Lyutsarev, V., Smith, M. J., Scharlemann, J. P. W., & Purves, D. W. (2014). Emergent Global Patterns of Ecosystem Structure and Function from a Mechanistic General Ecosystem Model. Plos Biology, 12(4). 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001841
- Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Barboni, D., Kohfeld, K. E., Ni, J., & Sutra, J. P. (2010). Ecophysiological and bioclimatic foundations for a global plant functional classification [Review]. Journal of Vegetation Science, 21(2), 300–317. 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2009.01144.x
- Herberstein, M. E., McLean, D. J., Lowe, E., Wolff, J. O., Khan, M. K., Smith, K., Allen, A. P., Bulbert, M., Buzatto, B. A., Eldridge, M. D. B., Falster, D., Fernandez Winzer, L., Griffith, S. C., Madin, J. S., Narendra, A., Westoby, M., Whiting, M. J., Wright, I. J., & Carthey, A. J. R. (2022). AnimalTraits – a curated animal trait database for body mass, metabolic rate and brain size. Scientific Data, 9(1),
265 . 10.1038/s41597-022-01364-9 - Hoeks, S., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Busana, M., Harfoot, M. B. J., Svenning, J. C., & Santini, L. (2020), Mechanistic insights into the role of large carnivores for ecosystem structure and functioning. Ecography, 43(12), 1752–1763. 10.1111/ecog.05191
- Hooper, D. U., Adair, E. C., Cardinale, B. J., Byrnes, J. E. K., Hungate, B. A., Matulich, K. L., … O’Connor, M. I. (2012). A global synthesis reveals biodiversity loss as a major driver of ecosystem change. Nature, 486,
105 . 10.1038/nature11118 - Houghton, R. A. (1999). The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850–1990. Tellus Series B, 51(2), 298–313. 10.3402/tellusb.v51i2.16288
- Houghton, R. A. (2003). Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850–2000. Tellus B, 55, 378–390. 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01450.x
- Huang, Y., Chen, Y., Castro-Izaguirre, N., Baruffol, M., Brezzi, M., Lang, A., Li, Y., Härdtle, W., von Oheimb, G., Yang, X., Liu, X., Pei, K., Both, S., Yang, B., Eichenberg, D., Assmann, T., Bauhus, J., Behrens, T., Buscot, F., … Schmid, B. (2018). Impacts of species richness on productivity in a large-scale subtropical forest experiment. Science, 362(6410), 80–83. 10.1126/science.aat6405
- Ienco, D., Interdonato, R., Gaetano, R., & Ho Tong Minh, D. (2019). Combining sentinel-1 and sentinel-2 satellite image time series for land cover mapping via a multi-source deep learning architecture. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 158, 11–22. 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2019.09.016
- IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C.
- Iversen, C., McCormack, M., Powell, A., Blackwood, C., Freschet, G., Kattge, J., … Violle, C. (2017). A global Fine-Root Ecology Database to address below-ground challenges in plant ecology. New Phytologist, 215. 10.1111/nph.14486
- Jarvie, S., & Svenning, J. C. (2018). Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 373(1761). 10.1098/rstb.2017.0446
- Jones, C., Cox, P., & Huntingford, C. (2003). Uncertainty in climate carbon-cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Tellus B, 55, 642–648. 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01440.x
- Kattge, J., Bönisch, G., Díaz, S., Lavorel, S., Prentice, I. C., Leadley, P., Tautenhahn, S., Werner, G. D. A., Aakala, T., Abedi, M., Acosta, A. T. R., Adamidis, G. C., Adamson, K., Aiba, M., Albert, C. H., Alcántara, J. M., Alcázar, C. C., Aleixo, I., Ali, H., … Wirth, C. (2020). TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access. Global Change Biology, 26(1), 119–188. 10.1111/gcb.14904
- Kattge, J., Diaz, S., Lavorel, S., Prentice, I. C., Leadley, P., Bönisch, G., Garnier, E., Westoby, M., Reich, P. B., Wright, I. J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Violle, C., Harrison, S. P., van Bodegom, P. M., Reichstein, M., Enquist, B. J., Soudzilovskaia, N. A., Ackerly, D. D., Anand, M., … Wirth, C. (2011). TRY – a global database of plant traits. Global Change Biology, 17, 2905–2935. 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02451.x
- Kautz, M., Anthoni, P., Meddens, A. J. H., Pugh, T. A. M., & Arneth, A. (2018). Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States. Global Change Biology, 24(5), 2079–2092. 10.1111/gcb.13974
- Kautz, M., Meddens, A. J. H., Hall, R. J., & Arneth, A. (2017). Biotic disturbances in Northern Hemisphere forests – a synthesis of recent data, uncertainties and implications for forest monitoring and modelling. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26, 533–552. 10.1111/geb.12558
- Keppo, I., Butnar, I., Bauer, N., Caspani, M., Edelenbosch, O., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Lefevre, J., Le Gallic, T., Leimbach, M., McDowall, W., Mercure, J. F., Schaeffer, R., Trutnevyte, E., & Wagner, F. (2021). Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models. Environmental Research Letters, 16(5). 10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8
- Koldasbayeva, D., Tregubova, P., Gasanov, M., Zaytsev, A., Petrovskaia, A., & Burnaev, E. (2024). Challenges in data-driven geospatial modeling for environmental research and practice. Nature Communications, 15(1),
10700 . 10.1038/s41467-024-55240-8 - Krause, J., Anthoni, P., Harfoot, M., Kupisch, M., & Arneth, A. (2025). Modelling herbivory impacts on vegetation structure and productivity. Geoscientific Model Development, 2025,
18 . 10.5194/gmd-18-9633-2025 - Krause, J., Harfoot, M., Hoeks, S., Anthoni, P., Brown, C., Rounsevell, M., & Arneth, A. (2022). How more sophisticated leaf biomass simulations can increase the realism of modelled animal populations. Ecological Modelling, 471. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110061
- Lade, S. J., Norberg, J., Anderies, J. M., Beer, C., Cornell, S. E., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Gasser, T., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., & Steffen, W. (2019). Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change. Global Sustainability, 2, Article
e21 . 10.1017/sus.2019.18 - Lang, N., Jetz, W., Schindler, K., & Wegner, J. D. (2023). A high-resolution canopy height model of the Earth. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 7(11), 1778–1789. 10.1038/s41559-023-02206-6
- Langan, L., Scheiter, S., Hickler, T., & Higgins, S. I. (2025). Amazon forest resistance to drought is increased by diversity in hydraulic traits. Nature Communications, 16(1),
8246 . 10.1038/s41467-025-63600-1 - LeCun, Y., Bengio, Y., & Hinton, G. (2015). Deep learning. Nature, 521(7553), 436–444. 10.1038/nature14539
- Luo, Y., Ahlström, A., Allison, S. D., Batjes, N. H., Brovkin, V., Carvalhais, N., Chappell, A., Ciais, P., Davidson, E. A., Finzi, A., Georgiou, K., Guenet, B., Hararuk, O., Harden, J. W., He, Y., Hopkins, F., Jiang, L., Koven, C., Jackson, R. B., … Zhou, T. (2016). Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30(1), 40–56. 10.1002/2015GB005239
- Mahecha, M. D., Bastos, A., Bohn, F. J., Eisenhauer, N., Feilhauer, H., Hickler, T., … Quaas, J. (2024). Biodiversity and climate extremes: Known interactions and research gaps. Earth’s Future, 12(6),
e2023EF003963 . 10.1029/2023EF003963 - Malek, Ž., Douw, B., Van Vliet, J., Van Der Zanden, E. H., & Verburg, P. H. (2019). Local land-use decision-making in a global context. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8),
083006 . 10.1088/1748-9326/ab309e - Malhi, Y., Lander, T., le Roux, E., Stevens, N., Macias-Fauria, M., Wedding, L., Girardin, C., Kristensen, J. Å., Sandom, C. J., Evans, T. D., Svenning, J.-C., & Canney, S. (2022). The role of large wild animals in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Current Biology, 32(4), R181–R196. 10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.041
- Marcos, D., Vlasakker, R. v. d., Athanasiadis, I. N., Bonnet, P., Goeau, H., Joly, A., Kissling, W. D., Leblanc, C., Proosdij, A. S. J. v., & Panousis, K. P. (2025). Fully automatic extraction of morphological traits from the Web: utopia or reality? Arxiv. 10.48550/arXiv.2409.17179
- Matthews, R. B., Gilbert, N. G., Roach, A., Polhill, J. G., & Gotts, N. M. (2007). Agent-based land-use models: A review of applications [Article]. Landscape Ecology, 22(10), 1447–1459. 10.1007/s10980-007-9135-1
- Murphy, E. J., Williams, J. J., Myers-Smith, I. H., Groner, V. P., Jacoby, D. M. P., Kwiatkowski, L., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Ransome, E., Banks-Leite, C., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Hofmann, E. E., Hoogakker, B., Johnston, N. M., Malhi, Y., & Cavan, E. L. (2026). Ecological feedbacks in the earth system. Earths Future, 14(2), Article
e2025EF006478 . 10.1029/2025ef006478 - Mokany, K., Ferrier, S., Connolly, S. R., Dunstan, P. K., Fulton, E. A., Harfoot, M. B., Harwood, T. D., Richardson, A. J., Roxburgh, S. H., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Tittensor, D. P., Westcott, D. A., & Wintle, B. A. (2016). Integrating modelling of biodiversity composition and ecosystem function. Oikos, 125(1), 10–19. 10.1111/oik.02792
- Mori, A. S., Dee, L. E., Gonzalez, A., Ohashi, H., Cowles, J., Wright, A. J., Loreau, M., Hautier, Y., Newbold, T., Reich, P. B., Matsui, T., Takeuchi, W., Okada, K.I., Seidl, R., & Isbell, F. (2021). Biodiversity – productivity relationships are key to nature-based climate solutions. Nature Climate Change, 11(6), 543–550. 10.1038/s41558-021-01062-1
- Newman, S. J., & Furbank, R. T. (2021). A multiple species, continent-wide, million-phenotype agronomic plant dataset. Scientific Data, 8(1),
116 . 10.1038/s41597-021-00898-8 - O’Sullivan, M., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Luijkx, I. T., Peters, W., Rosan, T. M., Arneth, A., Arora, V. K., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Falk, S., Feng, L., Gasser, T., Houghton, R. A., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., … Zaehle, S. (2024). The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1). 10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4
- Pachzelt, A., Forrest, M., Rammig, A., Higgins, S. I., & Hickler, T. (2015). Potential impact of large ungulate grazers on African vegetation, carbon storage and fire regimes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24(9), 991–1002. 10.1111/geb.12313
- Pachzelt, A., Rammig, A., Higgins, S., & Hickler, T. (2013). Coupling a physiological grazer population model with a generalized model for vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling, 263, 92–102. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.025
- Papastefanou, P., Pugh, T. A. M., Buras, A., Fleischer, K., Grams, T. E. E., Hickler, T., Lapola, D., Liu, D. J., Zang, C. S., & Rammig, A. (2024). Simulated sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest to extreme drought. Environmental Research Letters, 19(12). 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8f48
- Pearce, E. A., Mazier, F., Normand, S., Fyfe, R., Andrieu, V., Bakels, C., Balwierz, Z., Bińka, K., Boreham, S., Borisova, O. K., Brostrom, A., de Beaulieu, J.-L., Gao, C., González-Sampériz, P., Granoszewski, W., Hrynowiecka, A., Kołaczek, P., Kuneš, P., Magri, D., … Svenning, J.-C. (2023). Substantial light woodland and open vegetation characterized the temperate forest biome before Homo sapiens. Science Advances, 9(45),
eadi9135 . 10.1126/sciadv.adi9135 - Perkins, O., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Brown, C., Millington, J. D. A., & Rounsevell, M. (2023). Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal. One Earth, 6(12), 1638–1651. 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.011
- Perry, G. L. W., Seidl, R., Bellvé, A. M., & Rammer, W. (2022). An outlook for deep learning in ecosystem science. Ecosystems, 25(8), 1700–1718. 10.1007/s10021-022-00789-y
- Piazza, N., Malanchini, L., Nevola, E., & Vacchiano, G. (2024). Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24(10), 3579–3595. 10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024
- Pongratz, J., Dolman, H., Don, A., Erb, K.-H., Fuchs, R., Herold, M., Jones, C., Kuemmerle, T., Luyssaert, S., Meyfroidt, P., & Naudts, K. (2018). Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models. Global Change Biology, 24(4), 1470–1487. 10.1111/gcb.13988
- Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Kautz, M., Poulter, B., & Smith, B. (2019). Important role of forest disturbances in the global biomass turnover and carbon sinks. Nature Geoscience, 12, 730–735. 10.1038/s41561-019-0427-2
- Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlstrom, A., Bayer, A. D., Goldewijk, K. K., … Schurgers, G. (2015). Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management. Environmental Research Letters, 10(12). 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124008
- Rabin, S. S., Melton, J. R., Lasslop, G., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Kaplan, J. O., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Ward, D. S., Yue, C., Arora, V. K., Hickler, T., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Nieradzik, L., Spessa, A., Folberth, G. A., Sheehan, T., … Arneth, A. (2017). The fire modeling intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: Experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(3), 1175–1197. 10.5194/gmd-10-1175–;2017
- Raich, J. W., & Schlesinger, W. H. (1992). The global carbon dioxide flux in soil respiration and its relationship to vegetation and climate. Tellus, 44B, 81–99. 10.3402/tellusb.v44i2.15428
- Raoult, N., Douglas, N., MacBean, N., Kolassa, J., Quaife, T., Roberts, A. G., Fisher, R., Fer, I., Bacour, C., Dagon, K., Hawkins, L., Carvalhais, N., Cooper, E., Dietze, M. C., Gentine, P., Kaminski, T., Kennedy, D., Liddy, H. M., Moore, D. J. P., … Zobitz, J. (2025). Parameter estimation in land surface models: Challenges and opportunities with data assimilation and machine learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(11). 10.1029/2024MS004733
- Rizzuto, M., Leroux, S. J., & Schmitz, O. J. (2024). Rewiring the carbon cycle: A Theoretical framework for animal-driven ecosystem carbon sequestration. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 129(4),
e2024 JG008026 . 10.1029/2024JG008026 - Robinson, D. T., Di Vittorio, A., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Barton, C. M., Brown, D. G., Kettner, A., Lemmen, C., O’Neill, B. C., Janssen, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Rabin, S. S., Rounsevell, M., Syvitski, J. P., Ullah, I., & Verburg, P. H. (2018). Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), 895–914. 10.5194/esd-9-895-2018
- Rounsevell, M. D. A., Arneth, A., Brown, C., Cheung, W. W. L., Gimenez, O., Holman, I., Leadley, P., Luján, C., Mahevas, S., Maréchaux, I., Pélissier, R., Verburg, P. H., Vieilledent, G., Wintle, B. A., & Shin, Y.-J. (2021). Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making. One Earth, 4(7), 967–985. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003
- Rubiano Rivadeneira, N., & Carton, W. (2022). (In)justice in modelled climate futures: A review of integrated assessment modelling critiques through a justice lens. Energy Research & Social Science, 92,
102781 . 10.1016/j.erss.2022.102781 - Runting, R. K., Bryan, B. A., Dee, L. E., Maseyk, F. J. F., Mandle, L., Hamel, P., Wilson, K. A., Yetka, K., Possingham, H. P., & Rhodes, J. R. (2017). Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: A review. Global Change Biology, 23(1), 28–41. 10.1111/gcb.13457
- Sakschewski, B., von Bloh, W., Boit, A., Poorter, L., Pena-Claros, M., Heinke, J., … Thonicke, K. (2016). Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity. Nature Clim. Change, 6(11), 1032–1036. 10.1038/nclimate3109
- Sakschewski, B., von Bloh, W., Boit, A., Rammig, A., Kattge, J., Poorter, L., … Thonicke, K. (2015). Leaf and stem economics spectra drive diversity of functional plant traits in a dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 21(7), 2711–2725. 10.1111/gcb.12870
- Sani-Mohammed, A., Yao, W., & Heurich, M. (2022). Instance segmentation of standing dead trees in dense forest from aerial imagery using deep learning. ISPRS Open Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 6,
100024 . 10.1016/j.ophoto.2022.100024 - Sato, H., Chaste, E., Girardin, M. P., Kaplan, J. O., Hély, C., Candau, J.-N., & Mayor, S. J. (2023). Dynamically simulating spruce budworm in eastern Canada and its interactions with wildfire. Ecological Modelling, 483,
110412 . 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110412 - Saxena, A., Brown, C., Winkler, K., Arneth, A., & Rounsevell, M. (2026). Spatial patterns of global land management intensity are influenced by socioeconomic, biophysical and behavioural factors. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 2026, 1–55. 10.5194/essd-2026-482
- Scheepens, D., Millard, J., Farrell, M., & Newbold, T. (2024). Large language models help facilitate the automated synthesis of information on potential pest controllers. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 15(7), 1261–1273. 10.1111/2041-210X.14341
- Scheiter, S., Langan, L., & Higgins, S. I. (2013). Next-generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology. New Phytologist, 198(3), 957–969. 10.1111/nph.12210
- Schiefer, F., Kattenborn, T., Frick, A., Frey, J., Schall, P., Koch, B., & Schmidtlein, S. (2020). Mapping forest tree species in high resolution UAV-based RGB-imagery by means of convolutional neural networks. Isprs Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 170, 205–215. 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.10.015
- Schiefer, F., Schmidtlein, S., Frick, A., Frey, J., Klinke, R., Zielewska-Büttner, K., Junttila, S., Uhl, A., & Kattenborn, T. (2023). UAV-based reference data for the prediction of fractional cover of standing deadwood from Sentinel time series. ISPRS Open Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 8,
100034 . 10.1016/j.ophoto.2023.100034 - Schiller, C., Költzow, J., Schwarz, S., Schiefer, F., & Fassnacht, F. E. (2024). Forest disturbance detection in Central Europe using transformers and Sentinel-2 time series. Remote Sensing of Environment, 315,
114475 . 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114475 - Schmitz, O., & Leroux, S. (2020). Food Webs and Ecosystems: Linking Species Interactions to the Carbon Cycle. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 51, 1–25. 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011720-104730
- Schmitz, O. J., Wilmers, C. C., Leroux, S. J., Doughty, C. E., Atwood, T. B., Galetti, M., Davies, A. B., & Goetz, S. J. (2018). Animals and the zoogeochemistry of the carbon cycle. Science, 362(6419),
eaar3213 . 10.1126/science.aar3213 - Schuldt, A., Assmann, T., Brezzi, M., Buscot, F., Eichenberg, D., Gutknecht, J., Härdtle, W., He, J.-S., Klein, A.-M., Kühn, P., Liu, X., Ma, K., Niklaus, P. A., Pietsch, K. A., Purahong, W., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Schmid, B., Scholten, T., Staab, M., … Bruelheide, H. (2018). Biodiversity across trophic levels drives multifunctionality in highly diverse forests. Nature Communications, 9(1),
2989 . 10.1038/s41467-018-05421-z - Sevekari, M., Brown, C., Díaz-General, E., & Rounsevell, M. (2025). Justice can and should become a part of feasibility assessments for climate mitigation policies. npj Climate Action, 4(1),
48 . 10.1038/s44168-025-00255-0 - Seo, B., Brown, C., Lee, H., & Rounsevell, M. (2024). Bioenergy in Europe is unlikely to make a timely contribution to climate change targets. Environmental Research Letters, 19(4),
044004 . 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d11 - Shin, Y. J., Midgley, G. F., Archer, E. R. M., Arneth, A., Barnes, D. K. A., Chan, L., Hashimoto, S., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Insarov, G., Leadley, P., Levin, L. A., Ngo, H. T., Pandit, R., Pires, A. P. F., Portner, H. O., Rogers, A. D., Scholes, R. J., Settele, J., & Smith, P. (2022). Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate. Global Change Biology, 28(9), 2846–2874. 10.1111/gcb.16109
- Sitch, S., O’Sullivan, M., Robertson, E., Friedlingstein, P., Albergel, C., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Arora, V. K., Bastos, A., Bastrikov, V., Bellouin, N., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L., Ciais, P., Falk, S., Harris, I., Hurtt, G., Ito, A., Jain, A. K., … Zaehle, S. (2024). Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38(7). 10.1029/2024gb008102
- Smith, P., Arneth, A., Barnes, D. K. A., Ichii, K., Marquet, P. A.,Popp, A., Portner, H. O., Rogers, A. D., Scholes, R. J., Strassburg, B., Wu, J. G., & Ngo, H. (2022). How do we best synergize climate mitigation actions to co-benefit biodiversity? Global Change Biology, 28(8), 2555–2577. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16056
- Smith, S. W., Johnson, D., Quin, S. L. O., Munro, K., Pakeman, R. J., Van der Wal, R., & Woodin, S. J. (2015). Combination of herbivore removal and nitrogen deposition increases upland carbon storage. Global Change Biology, 21(8), 3036–3048. 10.1111/gcb.12902
- Sommerfeld, A., Senf, C., Buma, B., D’Amato, A. W., Després, T., Díaz-Hormazábal, I., Fraver, S., Frelich, L. E., Gutiérrez, A. G., Hart, S. J., Harvey, B. J., He, H. S., Hlásny, T., Holz, A., Kitzberger, T., Kulakowski, D., Lindenmayer, D., Mori, A. S., Müller, J., … Seidl, R. (2018). Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome. Nature Communications, 9. 10.1038/s41467-018-06788-9
- Son, R., Stacke, T., Gayler, V., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Schnur, R., Alonso, L., Requena-Mesa, C., Winkler, A. J., Hantson, S., Zaehle, S., Weber, U., & Carvalhais, N. (2024). Integration of a deep-learning-based fire model Into a global land surface model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16(1),
e2023MS003710 . 10.1029/2023MS003710 - Swart, R., Levers, C., Davis, J. T. M., & Verburg, P. H. (2023). Meta-analyses reveal the importance of socio- psychological factors for farmers adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. One Earth, 6(12), 1771–1783. 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.028
- Synes, N. W., Brown, C., Palmer, S. C. F., Bocedi, G., Osborne, P. E., Watts, K., Franklin, J., & Travis, J. M. J. (2019). Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems. Ecography, 42(4), 814–825. 10.1111/ecog.04039
- Talagrand, O., & Courtier, P. (1987). Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation. I: Theory. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 113(478), 1311–1328. 10.1002/qj.49711347812
- Tanentzap, A. J., & Coomes, D. A. (2012). Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems: do browsing and grazing herbivores matter? Biological Reviews, 87(1), 72–94. 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00185.x
- Trepel, J., le Roux, E., Abraham, A. J., Buitenwerf, R., Kamp, J., Kristensen, J. A., Tietje, M., Lundgren, E. J., & Svenning, J.-C. (2024). Meta-analysis shows that wild large herbivores shape ecosystem properties and promote spatial heterogeneity. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 8(4), 705–716. 10.1038/s41559-024-02327-6
- Tsiftsis, S., Štípková, Z., Rejmánek, M., & Kindlmann, P. (2024). Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable. Scientific Reports, 14(1),
25778 . 10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5 - Turner, A. P., Field, C., Lobell, D., Sanchez, D., & Mach, K. (2018). Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways. Nature Sustainability, 1, 240–245. 10.1038/s41893-018-0063-7
- van Bodegom, P. M., Douma, J. C., & Verheijen, L. M. (2014). A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(38), 13733–13738. 10.1073/pnas.1304551110
- Wegler, M., Kacic, P., Thonfeld, F., Holzwarth, S., Jaggy, N., Gessner, U., & Kuenzer, C. (2025). Tree species from space: a new product for Germany based on Sentinel-1 and –2 time series. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 46(16), 6075–6108. 10.1080/01431161.2025.2530236
- Weiskopf, S. R., Isbell, F., Arce-Plata, M. I., Di Marco, M., Harfoot, M., Johnson, J., Lerman, S. B., Miller, B. W., Morelli, T. L., Mori, A. S., Weng, E., & Ferrier, S. (2024). Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage. Nature Communications, 15(1),
4354 . 10.1038/s41467-024-47872-7 - Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M., & Herold, M. (2021). Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated. Nature Communications, 12(1),
2501 . 10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2 - Wolf, S., Mahecha, M. D., Sabatini, F. M., Wirth, C., Bruelheide, H., Kattge, J., Moreno Martínez, Á., Mora, K., & Kattenborn, T. (2022). Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 6(12), 1850–1859. 10.1038/s41559-022-01904-x
- Wu, L., Kato, T., Sato, H., Hirano, T., & Yazaki, T. (2019). Sensitivity analysis of the typhoon disturbance effect on forest dynamics and carbon balance in the future in a cool-temperate forest in northern Japan by using SEIB- DGVM. Forest Ecology and Management, 451. 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117529
- Zeng, Y., Brown, C., Byari, M., Raymond, J., Schmitt, T., & Rounsevell, M. (2025). InsNet-CRAFTY v1.0: Integrating institutional network dynamics powered by large language models with land use change simulation. Geosci. Model Dev., 18(15), 4983–5013. 10.5194/gmd-18-4983-2025
- Zeng, Y., Brown, C., Raymond, J., Byari, M., Hotz, R., & Rounsevell, M. (2024). Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling. EGUsphere, 2024, 1–35. 10.5194/egusphere-2024-449
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16993/tellus.4129 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 147 - 159
Submitted on: Nov 5, 2025
Accepted on: May 29, 2026
Published on: Jul 20, 2026
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Keywords:
© 2026 Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Jens Krause, Carolina Natel, Mark Rounsevell, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.