Croatian Islands – Immigration Hub in a Country Dealing With a Demographic Crisis?

Croatia is among the European countries struggling with serious demographic issues, having experienced a population decline of –9.64% between the last two censuses. For over a century, Croatian islands have been hotspots of emigration, with the demographic peak occurring in 1921. Despite negative natural change continuing to affect island demography, in the last decade, it seems that the migrational flow has turned in favor of these sensitive and isolated communities. As a result, the islands which are predominantely rural areas, seem to become an immigration oasis, potentialy offering new opportunities for growth and development. Available data shows that during the last intercensus period (2011–2021), only two out of the 50 inhabited islands experienced a negative migrational balance. At the same time, significant increase in housing construction has been recorded on the islands, which, combined with the pressure of massive tourism, is transforming their traditional rural landscapes. Many of those houses have been used as second homes ocasionaly or seasonally over the year.

This research provides a comprehensive analysis of statistical demographic and housing data for Croatian islands, contextualizing them to answer the question of whether the Croatian islands have suddenly become an immigration hub. The findings reveal the unreliability of statistical data and highlight the issue of false residence registration in Croatia. Namely, a thorough data analysis of the number of issued island cards, together with a survey conducted among representatives of island administrations, indicates that the observed population increase and positive migration balance may be the result of false residence registration on the islands. This brings up challenges in accurately interpreting the social and demographic processes occurring on the islands, and calls for better methods for collecting and analyzing data. The research sheds light on the impact of the aging population and population decline, revealing the transformation of the islands from permanent residential areas to secondary residency sites.