Internal Migration of Ethnic Groups in Latvia: The Importance of Age and Geography

Janis Krumins; Maris Berzins

doi:10.14746/quageo-2026-0027

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Internal Migration of Ethnic Groups in Latvia: The Importance of Age and Geography

Quaestiones Geographicae

Volume 45 (2026): Issue 2 (June 2026)

By: Janis Krumins and Maris Berzins

Open Access

|Jun 2026

Figures & Tables

The share (%) of ethnic minorities by territorial units (urban and rural) in Latvia (2019) based on data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia.

Relative population change (100% = 2011) among ethnic minorities by territorial units (urban and rural) in Latvia (2011–2019) based on data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia.

Distribution of the total population and internal migrants across the urban system and regions by the majority-minority ethnic groups (2011 and 2019) based on data from the Population Census (2011) and Population Register (2019).

Age-specific migration propensities by majority-minority ethnic groups (2011 and 2019) based on data from the Population Census (2011) and Population Register (2019).

Ethnic composition and its changes in Latvia, 2000–2019 (Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia)_

Ethnic group	Total population 2019			Population change 2000–2019		Mean age
Ethnic group	number	% of total	% of ethnic minorities	number	%	2000	2019
Latvians	1,196,251	62.3	–	−174,305	−12.7	36.8	40.4
Russians	478,578	24.9	66.2	−224,539	−31.9	39.5	47.4
Belarusians	61,418	3.2	8.5	−35,719	−36.8	44.7	55.4
Ukrainians	43,062	2.2	6.0	−20,572	−32.3	41.9	52.5
Poles	38,818	2.0	5.4	−20,680	−34.8	42.0	50.9
Lithuanians	22,340	1.2	3.1	−11,085	−33.1	42.3	51.0
Other	79,040	4.1	10.9	+29,345	+59.0	36.2	24.0
Total	1,919,507			−457,555	−19.2	38.2	42.5

Binary logistic regression model variables_

Type	Variable	Group	Regression model no.
Filter variables	Ethnicity	Latvians	all
		Ethnic minorities
Dependent variable	Migration status	In-migrants	all
		Non-migrants
Covariates (predictor variables)	Age group	15–19	all
		20–24
		25–29
		30–34
		35–39
		40+
	Urban system	Capital city of Riga	1; 2; 3; 4
		Suburbs of Riga
		Other largest cities
		Regional & small towns
		Rural areas
	Region	Riga & suburbs	5; 6; 7; 8
		Zemgale
		Vidzeme Kurzeme
		Latgale

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and region of destination (ref_ non-migrants Latvians)_

β – internal migrants among Latvians (ref. non-migrants)
		Model 5 (2011)		Model 6 (2019)
		β coefficient	P	β coefficient	P
Age	15–19	−0.167	0.000	0.220	0.000
	20–24	0.895	0.000	0.762	0.000
	25–29	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	30–34	0.544	0.000	0.853	0.000
	35–39	0.096	0.000	0.556	0.000
	40+	−0.638	0.000	−0.243	0.000
Regions	Riga & suburbs	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	Zemgale	0.739	0.000	0.869	0.000
	Kurzeme	0.807	0.000	0.930	0.000
	Vidzeme	0.782	0.000	0.777	0.000
	Latgale	0.515	0.000	0.624	0.000
−2 Log likelihood		280,393.782		277,992.085
Nagelkerke R²		0.062		0.037

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and destination within the urban system (ref_ non-migrants ethnic minorities)_

β – internal migrants among ethnic minorities (ref. non-migrants)
		Model 3 (2011)		Model 4 (2019)
		β coefficient	P	β coefficient	P
Age	15–19	−0.183	0.000	0.180	0.000
	20–24	0.904	0.001	0.816	0.000
	25–29	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	30–34	0.636	0.000	0.913	0.020
	35–39	0.194	0.000	0.680	0.000
	40+	−0.693	0.000	−0.123	0.000
Urban system	Capital city of Riga	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	Suburbs of Riga	1.090	0.000	1.428	0.000
	Large cities	0.953	0.286	1.414	0.000
	Regional & small towns	0.956	0.512	1.851	0.000
	Rural areas	0.928	0.011	1.828	0.000
−2 Log likelihood		129,068.467		114,064.836
Nagelkerke R²		0.059		0.052

In-migrants and non-migrants by ethnicity (age group 0–14 excluded)_

	2010–2011				2018–2019
	In-migrants		Non-migrants		In-migrants		Non-migrants
	Count (k)	%	Count (k)	%	Count (k)	%	Count (k)	%
Latvians	33.6	3.3	999.9	96.7	32.8	3.4	943.7	96.6
Ethnic minorities	14.0	2.0	668.4	98.0	12.2	2.0	600.7	98.0
Total	47.6	2.8	1668.3	97.2	45.0	2.8	1544.4	97.2

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and region of destination (ref_ non-migrants ethnic minorities)_

β – internal migrants among minorities (ref. non-migrants)
		Model 7 (2011)		Model 8 (2019)
		β coefficient	P	β coefficient	P
Age	15–19	−0.174	0.000	0.227	0.000
	20–24	0.906	0.001	0.851	0.001
	25–29	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	30–34	0.639	0.000	0.908	0.013
	35–39	0.201	0.000	0.704	0.000
	40+	−0.698	0.000	−0.088	0.000
Regions	Riga & suburbs	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	Zemgale	0.975	0.402	1.222	0.000
	Kurzeme	1.275	0.000	1.254	0.000
	Vidzeme	0.858	0.000	0.695	0.000
	Latgale	0.861	0.000	0.852	0.000
−2 Log likelihood		129,127.080		117,087.907
Nagelkerke R²		0.058		0.025

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and destination within the urban system (ref_ non-migrants Latvians)_

β – internal migrants among Latvians (ref. non-migrants)
		Model 1 (2011)		Model 2 (2019)
		β coefficient	P	β coefficient	P
Age	15–19	−0.139	0.000	0.194	0.000
	20–24	0.914	0.000	0.754	0.000
	25–29	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	30–34	0.543	0.000	0.845	0.000
	35–39	0.102	0.000	0.531	0.000
	40+	−0.620	0.000	−0.254	0.000
Urban system	Capital city of Riga	1.000	(ref.)	1.000	(ref.)
	Suburbs of Riga	0.872	0.000	1.178	0.000
	Large cities	0.807	0.000	0.940	0.007
	Regional & small towns	0.758	0.000	1.064	0.025
	Rural areas	0.471	0.000	0.976	0.127
−2 Log likelihood		279,745.547		276,813.279
Nagelkerke R²		0.065		0.041

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2026-0027 | Journal eISSN: 2081-6383 | Journal ISSN: 2082-2103

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Language: English

Page range: 117 - 132

Submitted on: Jun 1, 2025

Published on: Jun 30, 2026

Published by: Adam Mickiewicz University

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

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© 2026 Janis Krumins, Maris Berzins, published by Adam Mickiewicz University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 45 (2026): Issue 2 (June 2026)

Internal Migration of Ethnic Groups in Latvia: The Importance of Age and Geography

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 4.

Ethnic composition and its changes in Latvia, 2000–2019 (Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia)_

Binary logistic regression model variables_

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and region of destination (ref_ non-migrants Latvians)_

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and destination within the urban system (ref_ non-migrants ethnic minorities)_

In-migrants and non-migrants by ethnicity (age group 0–14 excluded)_

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and region of destination (ref_ non-migrants ethnic minorities)_

Logistic regression of the likelihood of internal migration, predicted by age group and destination within the urban system (ref_ non-migrants Latvians)_

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