Precipitation Extremes in the Argentine Pampas: Current Declining Trends and Projected Intensification Under Climate Change
References
- Aliaga V.S., Ferrelli F., Alberdi-Algarañaz E., Bohn V.Y., Piccolo M.C., 2016. Distribution and variability of precipitation in the Pampas, Argentina. Cuadernos de Investigatión Geográfica 42(1): 261–280. DOI 10.18172/cig.2867.
- Aliaga V.S., Ferrelli F., Piccolo M.C., 2017. Regionalization of climate over the Argentine Pampas. International Journal of Climatology 37(S1): 1019–1035. DOI 10.1002/joc.5079.
- Ávila-Díaz A., Benezoli V., Justino F., Torres R., Wilson A., 2020. Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections. Climate Dynamics 55: 1403–1426. DOI 10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z.
- Baimoung S., Oki T., Archevarahuprok B., Yuttaphan A., Pangpom M., 2014. Bias correction techniques for meteorological data of A2 scenario climate model output in Chao Phraya River Basin of Thailand. Hydrological Research Letters 8: 71–76. DOI 10.3178/hrl.8.71.
- Barros V.R., Boninsegna J.A., Camilloni I.A., Chidiak M., Magrín G.O., Rusticucci M., 2015. Climate change in Argentina: Trends, projections, impacts and adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 6(2): 151–169. DOI 10.1002/wcc.316.
- Bauer P., Thorpe A., Brunet G., 2015. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction. Nature 525(7567): 47–55. DOI 10.1038/nature14956.
- Bert F., de Estrada M., Naumann G., 2021. The 2017-18 drought in the Argentine Pampas – Impacts on agriculture. GAR special report on drought. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, , Geneva, Switzerland.
- Bhatti A.S., Wang G., Ullah W., Ullah S., Fiifi Tawia Hagan D., Kwesi Nooni I., Ullah I., 2020. Trend in extreme precipitation indices based on long term in situ precipitation records over Pakistan. Water 12(3): 797. DOI 10.3390/w12030797.
- Boers N., Marwan N., Barbosa H.M., Kurths J., 2017. A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system. Scientific Reports 7(1): 41489. DOI 10.1038/srep41489.
- Bouza M.E., Silenzi J.C., Echeverría N.E., De Lucia M.P., 2012. Analysis of erosive events for a soil in the southwest of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. Aeolian Research 3(4): 427–435. DOI 10.1016/j.aeolia.2011.10.001.
- Brendel A.S., Bohn V.Y., Piccolo M.C., 2017. Variabilidad de la precipitación y su relación con los rendimientos agrícolas en una región semiárida de la llanura pampeana (Argentina). Estudios Geográficos 78: 7–29. DOI 10.3989/estgeogr.201701.
- Brendel A.S., del Barrio R.A., Mora F., León E.A.O., Flores J.R., Campoy J.A., 2020. Current agro-climatic potential of Patagonia shaped by thermal and hydric patterns. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 142: 855–868. DOI 10.1007/s00704-020-03350-w.
- Brendel A.S., Ferrelli F., Piccolo M.C., 2025. Temperature extremes and warming trends in the Argentine Pampas: Present patterns and future projections under climate change. Environmental Earth Sciences 84: 123–145. DOI 10.1007/s12665-025-10234-5.
- Cai W., Santoso A., Collins M., Dewitte B., Karamperidou C., Kug J.S., Lengaigne M., McPhaden M.J., Stuecker M.F., Taschetto A.S., Timmermann A., Wu L., Yeh S.W., Wang G., Ng B., Jia F., Yang Y., Ying J., Zheng X.T., Bayr T., Brown J.R., Capotondi A., Cobb K.M., Gan B., Geng T., Ham Y.G., Jin F.F., Jo H.S., Li X., Lin X., McGregor S., Park J.H., Stein K., Yang K., Zhang L., Zhong W., 2021. Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 2: 628–644. DOI 10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z.
- Carvalho L.M., Jones C., Silva A.E., Liebmann B., Silva Dias P.L., 2011. The South American monsoon system and the 1970s climate transition. International Journal of Climatology 31(8): 1248–1256. DOI 10.1002/joc.2147.
- Casado A., Campo A.M., 2019. Extremos hidroclimáticos y recursos hídricos: estado de conocimiento en el suroeste bonaerense, Argentina. Cuadernos de Geografía 28(2): 43–66. DOI 10.30827/cuadgeo.v58i1.6751.
- Chen A., He X., Guan H., 2018. Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, Central South China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 132: 71–88. DOI 10.1007/s00704-017-2069-x.
- Chen H., Sun J., 2018. Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5°C warmer world. International Journal of Climatology 38(9): 3607–3617. DOI 10.1002/joc.552.
- Cristiano E., Ten Veldhuis M.C., van de Giesen N., 2017. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – A review. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21: 3859–3878. DOI 10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017.
- de Melo-Goncalves P., Rocha A., Santos J.A., 2016. Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 94: 114–126. DOI 10.1016/j.pce.2016.05.003.
- Di Bella C.M., Paruelo J.M., Becerra J.E., Bacour C., Baret F., 2017. Effect of senescent leaves on NDVI-based estimates of fAPAR: Experimental and modelling evidences. International Journal of Remote Sensing 38(20): 5632–5650. DOI 10.1080/01431160412331269724.
- Donat M.G., Lowry A.L., Alexander L.V., O’Gorman P.A., Maher N., 2016. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change 6(5): 508–513. DOI 10.1038/nclimate2941.
- dos Santos A.L.M., Gonçalves W.A., Andrade L.D.M.B., Rodrigues D.T., Batista F.F., Lima G.C., e Silva C.M.S., 2024. Space-time characterization of extreme precipitation indices for the semiarid region of Brazil. Climate 12(3): 43. DOI 10.3390/cli12030043.
- FAO., 2023. The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2023. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, Rome.
- Ferrelli F., 2017. Variabilidad pluviométrica y sus efectos sobre las coberturas del suelo al sur de la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina. Revista Geográfica Venezolana 58(1): 26–37.
- Ferrelli F., Brendel A.S., Aliaga V.S., Piccolo M.C., Perillo G.M.E., 2019. Climate regionalization and trends based on daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the south of the Pampas (Argentina). Cuadernos de Investigation Geográfica 45(1): 393–416. DOI 10.18172/cig.3707.
- Ferrelli F., Brendel A.S., Perillo G.M.E., Piccolo M.C., 2021. Warming signals emerging from the analysis of daily changes in extreme temperature events over Pampas (Argentina). Environmental Earth Sciences 80(12): 422. DOI 10.1007/s12665-021-09721-4.
- Ferrelli F., Pontrelli Albisetti M., Brendel A.S., Casoni A.I., Hesp P.A., 2024. Appraisal of daily temperature and rainfall events in the context of global warming in South Australia. Water 16(2): 351. DOI 10.3390/w16020351.
- Ford J.D., Berrang-Ford L., Paterson J., 2011. A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations. Climatic Change 106(2): 327–336. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0045-5.
- Garreaud R., 2000. Cold air incursions over subtropical South America: Mean structure and dynamics. Monthly Weather Review 128(7): 2544–2559. DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<;2544:CAIOSS>2.0.CO;2.
- Grimm A.M., Tedeschi R.G., 2009. ENSO and extreme rainfall events in South America. Journal of Climate 22: 5206–5219. DOI 10.1175/2008JCLI2429.1.
- Hirabayashi Y., Mahendran R., Koirala S., Konoshima L., Yamazaki D., Watanabe S., Kim H., Kanae S., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3(9): 816–821. DOI 10.1038/nclimate1911.
- IPCC., 2013. Chapter 12: Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. In: Stocker T.F., Qin D., Plattner G.K., Tignor M., Allen S.K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V., Midgley P.M. (eds), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: 1029–1136.
- IPCC., 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. In: Masson-Delmotte V., Zhai P., Pirani A., Connors S.L., Péan C., Berger S., Caud N., Chen Y., Goldfarb L., Gomis M.I., Huang M., Leitzell K., Lonnoy E., Matthews J.B.R., Maycock T.K., Waterfield T., Yelekçi O., Yu R., Zhou B. (eds), Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
- Kayano M.T., Capistrano V.B., 2014. How the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modifies the ENSO influence on the South American rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 34(1): 162–178. DOI 10.1002/joc.3674.
- Kendall M.R., 1955. Rank correlation methods, 4th Edn. Charles Griffin, London.
- Keskin M., Dogru A.O., Balcik F.B., 2015. Comparing spatial interpolation methods for mapping meteorological data in Turkey. In: Energy Systems and Management. Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp. 33–42. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16024-5_3.
- Li L., Zou Y., Li Y., Lin H., Liu D.L., Wang B., Song S., 2020. Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China. Hydrology Research 51(3): 484–504. DOI 10.2166/nh.2020.095.
- Mahmood R., Jia S., 2019. Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad Basin, Africa. Scientific Reports 9: 6317. DOI 10.1038/s41598-019-42811-9.
- Mann H.B., 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 13: 245–259. DOI 10.2307/1907187.
- Medeiros F.J., Oliveira C.P., Avila-Diaz A., 2022. Evaluation of extreme precipitation climate indices and their projected changes for Brazil: From CMIP3 to CMIP6. Weather and Climate Extremes 38: 100511. DOI 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100511.
- Menafoglio A., Secchi P., Dalla Rosa M., 2013. A universal kriging predictor for spatially dependent functional data of a Hilbert space. Electronic Journal of Statistics 7: 2209–2240. DOI 10.1002/9781119387916.ch2.
- O’Gorman P.A., 2015. Precipitation extremes under climate change. Current Climate Change Reports 1(2): 49–59. DOI 10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3.
- Ojima D.S., Conant R.T., Parton W.J., Lackett J.M., Even T.L., 2021. Recent climate changes across the Great Plains and implications for natural resource management practices. Rangeland Ecology and Management 78: 180–190. DOI 10.1016/j.rama.2021.03.008.
- Paredes del Puerto J.M., García I.D., Maiztegui T., Paracampo A.H., Rodrigues Capitulo L., Garcia de Souza J.R., Colautti D.C., 2022. Impacts of land use and hydrological alterations on water quality and fish assemblage structure in headwater Pampean streams (Argentina). Aquatic Sciences 84(1): 6. DOI 10.1007/s00027-021-00842-3.
- Perillo V.L., Brendel A.S., Ferrelli F., Gutiérrez A., Vitale A.J., Marinangeli P., Piccolo M.C., 2023. CO2 flux dynamics of exotic and native species in an extensive green roof simulator with hydric deficit. Urban Climate 49: 101567. DOI 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101567.
- Peterson T.C., Folland C., Gruza G., Hogg W., Mokssit A., Plummer N., 2001. Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
- Pinto I., Jack C., Hewitson B., 2018. Process-based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment and coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models. International Journal of Climatology 38(11): 4251–4261. DOI 10.1002/joc.5666.
- Pohlert T., 2017. Trend: Non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. R package version 1.1.0. Online: CRAN.R-project.org/package=trend (accessed December 12, 2025).
- Reboita M.S., Ambrizzi T., Silva B.A., Pinheiro R.F., da Rocha R.P., 2019. The South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone: Present and future climate. Frontiers in Earth Science 7: 8. DOI 10.3389/feart.2019.00008.
- Rolla A.L., Nuñez M.N., Guevara E.R., Meira S.G., Rodriguez G.R., Ortiz de Zárate M.I., 2018. Climate impacts on crop yields in Central Argentina. Adaptation strategies. Agricultural Systems 160: 44–59. DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.08.007.
- Ronco A.E., Marino D.J.G., Abelando M., Almada P., Apartin C.D., 2016. Water quality of the main tributaries of the Parana Basin: Glyphosate and AMPA in surface water and bottom sediments. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 188: 458. DOI 10.1007/s10661-016-5467-0.
- Scarpati O.E., Capriolo A.D., 2018. Evolución del exceso de agua edáfica anual en la Región Pampeana (Argentina) Evolution of annual soil water surplus in Pampean Region (Argentina). Estudios Geográficos 79(285): 375–395. DOI 10.3989/estgeogr.201814.
- Sen P.K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63: 1379–1389. DOI 10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934.
- Seneviratne S.I., Corti T., Davin E.L., Hirschi M., Jaeger E.B., Lehner I., Orlowsky B., Teuling A.J., 2010. Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews 99(3–4): 125–161. DOI 10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004.
- Seneviratne S.I., Zhang X., Adnan M., Badi W., Dereczynski C., Di Luca A., Ghosh S., Iskandar I., Kossin J., Lewis S., 2021. Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In: Masson-Delmotte V., Zhai P., Pirani A., Connors S.L., Péan C., Berger S., Caud N., Chen Y., Goldfarb L., Gomis M.I., Huang M., Leitzell K., Lonnoy E., Matthews J.B.R., Maycock T.K., Waterfield T., Yelekçi O., Yu R., Zhou B. (Eds.), Climate Change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- Shrestha N.K., Du X., Wang J., 2017. Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada. Science of the Total Environment 601: 425–440. DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.013.
- Sloat L.L., Davis S.J., Gerber J.S., Moore F.C., Ray D.K., West P.C., Mueller N.D., 2020. Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications 11(1): 1–9. DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4.
- SMN (National Meteorological Service), Argentina, 2023. Climatological statistics. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires. Online: smn.gob.ar (accessed December 12, 2025).
- Sun Q., Zhang X., Zwiers F., Westra S., Alexander L.V., 2021. A global, continental, and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation. Journal of Climate 34(1): 243–258. DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0892.1.
- Tebaldi C., Knutti R., 2007. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences 365: 2053–2075. DOI 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076.
- Volonté A., Gil V., 2019. Aportes de la hidrogeomorfología histórica en la determinación de áreas inundables a partir de eventos extremos de crecidas. Huellas 23(1): 11–26. DOI 10.19137/huellas-2019-2302.
- Wang X.L., Wen Q.H., Wu Y., 2007. Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46(6): 916–931. DOI 10.1175/2007JTECHA982.1.
- Watanabe S., Kanae S., Seto S., 2012. Intercomparison of bias-correction methods for monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by multiple climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 117(D23): D23114. DOI 10.1029/2012JD018192.
- Zhang Q., Li J., David Chen Y., 2011. Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960-2005 in China: Natural or human-induced variations? Theoretical and Applied Climatology 106: 417–431. DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0447-3.
- Zhang X., Wan H., Zwiers F.W., Hegerl G.C., Min S.K., 2019. Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophysical Research Letters 46(4): 2325–2336. DOI 10.1002/grl.51010.
- Zhang X., Yang F., 2004. RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Climate Research Branch Environment, Canada.
- Zhou H., Aizen E., Aizen V., 2018. Constructing a long-term monthly climate data set in Central Asia. International Journal of Climatology 38(3): 1463–1475. DOI 10.1002/joc.5259.
- Zilli M.T., Carvalho L.M., Lintner B.R., 2019. The poleward shift of South Atlantic convergence zone in recent decades. Climate Dynamics 52: 2545–2563. DOI 10.1007/s00382-018-4277-1.
- Zscheischler J., Westra S., van den Hurk B.J.J.M., Seneviratne S.I., Ward P.J., Pitman A., AghaKouchak A., Bresch D.N., Leonard M., Wahl T., Zhang X., 2018. Future climate risk from compound events. Nature Climate Change 8: 469–896. DOI 10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3.
Language: English
Submitted on: Sep 15, 2025
Published on: Apr 27, 2026
Published by: Adam Mickiewicz University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
Related subjects:
© 2026 Andrea Soledad Brendel, Federico Ferrelli, Maria Cintia Piccolo, published by Adam Mickiewicz University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.