How technology, behaviour, and tariffs reshape residential power demand: A comparative study of sub-hourly load curves for subpopulations in Great Britain and France

Peer-reviewed paper 1-217-26

Accurate prospective analysis of power demand is critical for the energy transition. However, current residential models often rely on deterministic assumptions where building physics is the primary driver of power demand, often neglecting or underestimating other determinants. This paper aims to address this gap by exploring the different drivers of residential demand by analysing sub-hourly load curves for segments based on the building type and heating technologies. The study presents a unique comparative analysis utilising high-resolution smart meter data coupled with detailed contextual information from large household subpopulations in Great Britain and France. The results first suggest that distinct cultural habits and preferences shape the load curves in ways that differ between subpopulations. Second, heating systems and tariffs shape demand curves, with different technologies producing distinct load profiles and tariff incentives driving load shifting. Third, the analysis suggests that electrification represents a structural transformation of demand shape rather than a simple fuel substitution. This work highlights the power of cross-border comparisons in revealing the distinct cultural and technological drivers of energy consumption. These insights support a shift toward power demand models that integrate buildings, systems, appliances, tariffs, and behaviour as dynamic, interactive variables. For policymakers, stakeholders and grid operators, the findings underscore that a successful energy transition requires coordinating technology deployment, tariff designs, and public awareness to effectively manage the heterogeneity of future electrical loads.