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Modelling the relaxation of EU CO2 emission standards for cars and vans in Germany with TEMPS Cover

Modelling the relaxation of EU CO2 emission standards for cars and vans in Germany with TEMPS

Energy Demand. European Journal for Studies in Energy Demand, Efficiency and Resource Use
Volume 1 (2026): Issue 3
By: ,   and    
Open Access
|Oct 2026
Figures & tables

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Overview of the structure of the TEMPS model.

Table 1

Components of the TCO-calculation.

INVESTMENT COSTSRUNNING COSTS

  • Purchase price

  • Purchase subsidy

  • Depreciation costs

  • Residual value

  • Fuel costs (incl. taxes and GHG quota compliance cost)

  • Fixed costs (taxes and insurance)

  • Road toll

  • Reward from German GHG quota system

  • Variable costs (maintenance, repair, etc)

Table 2

Key data sources used by the TEMPS model.

NAME DATA SETUSE IN MODELSOURCE
MOPUser profilesKIT 2021
MiD 2017User profilesInfas 2018
KiD 2010User profilesBMVI 2010
Fahrleistungserhebung 2014User profile mileageBASt 2015
Energiebilanz für DeutschlandCalibration of final energy demandAGEB 2025
Verkehr in ZahlenTraffic demandKBA 2024
EU-Monitoring-DatenbankCalibration of new registrationsEEA 2025b
Zentrales FahrzeugregisterVehicle stock and age structure, survival curvesKBA n.d.
Techno-economic assumptions of the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport modelTechnology costs of vehiclesJRC 2024
MineralölstatistikShort-term validation of energy demandBAFA 2025
Automatische DauerzählstellenShort-term validation of transport demandBASt 2026
Rahmendaten ProjektionsberichtEnergy prices, GDP, population, deflatorUBA 2026b
Fuel Quality DirectiveEmission factorsEEA 2025a
GeneralzolldirektionRenewable fuel volumesGZD 2026
Table 3

Relative deviation of emissions from newly registered vehicles in Germany versus EU.

2018201920202021202220232024
Relative deviation in %7.96.24.7–1.7–3.65.19.6
Figure 2

EU CO2 emission standard pathways in Germany for regulation and proposal applied in TEMPS.

Table 4

Scenario design.

SCENARIOEU CO2 FLEET EMISSION STANDARDSCO2 PRICE PATHWAY
REFRegulation (EU) 2019/631German Projection Report (UBA 2026c)
APProposal of the European Commission (2025c)Equals REF
CPEquals APDetermined iteratively
Table 5

Difference in the price adjustment parameter C between BEV and ICEV in scenario REF and AP.

PARAMETER20302031203220332034UNIT
ΔC REF1,8214,2806,26210,5826,262EUR2024
ΔC AP9141,3669142,2681,815EUR2024
Figure 3

Difference of the powertrain share of newly registered cars (scenario AP vs. REF).

Figure 4

Difference in GHG emissions of the German transport sector between scenario REF and AP.

Figure 5

CO2 price pathways of scenarios REF/AP and CP.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66506/ed.29 | Journal eISSN: 3119-4044
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Language: English
Page range: 11 - 11
Submitted on: Apr 28, 2026
Accepted on: Sep 25, 2026
Published on: Oct 8, 2026
Published by: European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Keywords:
modelling,
transport emissions,
EU CO2 emissions standards

© 2026 Wolf Görz, Peter Kasten, Dennis Seibert, published by European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 1 (2026): Issue 3
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