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Forming Markets, Forging Futures: Public Procurement and Lead Markets for European Low-Emission Steel Cover

Forming Markets, Forging Futures: Public Procurement and Lead Markets for European Low-Emission Steel

Open Access
|Jul 2026

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Selected green steel policy levers grouped by category (authors’ own elaboration based on literature review).

Figure 2

Sequential multi-method research design showing the analytical workflow used to examine procurement governance across EU-level signalling, national policy translation and buyer-level operationalisation (source: authors’ own elaboration).

Table 1

Connecting methodological components with the research questions.

RESEARCH QUESTIONMETHOD(S)ANALYTICAL CONTRIBUTION
RQ1: How does the EU frame public procurement as an instrument for steel decarbonisation, and how is this framing translated by Member States into national frameworks?QDA + QCAIdentifies thematic emphasis, procurement framing, governance narratives and policy translation across EU and national policy documents
RQ2: How is public procurement currently being used as a strategic instrument within steel-relevant sectors (transport, buildings, defence) across the EU?CAN analysisExamines procurement practices through MEAT usage and environmental criteria in procurement notices
RQ3: What governance, policy framing and support mechanisms are needed to enable public procurement to function as an effective demand-side lever for steel decarbonisation?Integrated synthesisIntegrates findings across governance levels to identify implementation gaps, institutional barriers and governance bottlenecks
Table 2

EU policy documents included in the analysis and their analytical relevance. A similar table for the national-level document selection and further information can be found in Appendix 1.

DOCUMENT THEMATIC CATEGORYINCLUDED DOCUMENTS
Industrial decarbonisation and steel transition1
  • Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM, 2023)

  • Net-Zero Industry Act (2024)

  • Industrial Emissions Directive (2024)

  • Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS) – Programme information package (2024)

  • Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP, 2025)

  • Defining low-carbon emissions steel: A comparative analysis of international initiatives and standards (2025)

  • EU Innovation Fund (2020)

Procurement governance and lead markets
  • EU Public Procurement Directives (2014)

  • Directive 2009/33/EC on clean and energy-efficient road transport vehicles (2024)

  • Clean Industrial Deal (2025)

Strategic industrial policy and competitiveness
  • Green Deal Industrial Plan (2023)

  • Critical Raw Materials Act (2024)

  • Draghi Report on EU Competitiveness (2025)

  • White Paper on Defence (2025)

Energy systems and production pathways
  • European Hydrogen Strategy (2020)

  • European Hydrogen Bank (2023)

  • Action Plan for Affordable Energy (2025)

Circularity and downstream demand sectors
  • Circular Economy Action Plan (2020)

  • Waste Shipment Regulation (2024)

  • Construction Products Regulation (CPR, 2024)

  • EU Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy (2020)

  • Automotive Action Plan (2025)

Table 3

Modal verb dictionaries.

SIGNALTERMS
High binding“shall”, “must”, “require*”, “oblig*”, “mandat*”, “is required to”, “are required to”, “shall ensure”, “must ensure”, “shall establish”, “shall adopt”, “shall not”, “must not”, “may not”, “cannot”, “can’t”, “not allow*”
Medium binding“should”, “recommend*”, “expect*”
Low binding“may”, “can”, “encourage*”, “support*”, “promote*”, “facilitat*”
None/unclearA residual class: procurement paragraphs that do not contain any of the above three modal dictionary matches
Table 4

Extract of the CAN data used in the analysis. Example 1 = lowest-price procurement (L); Example 2 = use of MEAT criteria (M) including references; Example 3 = use of MEAT criteria with explicit environmental weighting included within the award structure.

EXAMPLEISO_COUNTRY_CODECRIT_CODECRIT_CRITERIACRIT_WEIGHTS
1SEL
2SEMPris|Referenser(Price|References)75|25
3SEMPris|Miljö|Personal(Price|Environment|Staff)60|15|15
Figure 3

Relative thematic emphasis across analytical categories based on normalised term frequencies (per 1,000 words) (source: authors’ own elaboration).

Figure 4

Modal verb comparative analysis across paragraphs containing “public procurement” terms (source: authors’ own elaboration).

Figure 5

Prevalence of MEAT procurement (average across steel-relevant sectors: buildings, transport and defence) (source: authors’ own elaboration).

Table 5

EU-level and national – German (DE), Dutch (NL) and Swedish (SE) – policy documents included within the analysis.

GOVERNANCE LEVELDOCUMENTTYPEYEARANALYTICAL RELEVANCE
Signaller (EU)Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)Regulation2023Industrial decarbonisation
Signaller (EU)Circular Economy Action PlanAction Plan2020Circularity; material efficiency
Signaller (EU)Clean Industrial DealCommunication2025Strategic industrial policy
Signaller (EU)Construction Products Regulation (CPR)Regulation2024Material standards; construction demand
Signaller (EU)EU Innovation FundFunding instrument2020Industrial decarbonisation financing
Signaller (EU)EU Public Procurement DirectivesDirective2014Procurement governance
Signaller (EU)European Hydrogen StrategyStrategy2020Steel transition pathways
Signaller (EU)Green Deal Industrial PlanStrategy2023Strategic industrial policy
Signaller (EU)Defining low-carbon emissions steel: A comparative analysis of international initiatives and standardsTechnical Report2025Standards; low-emission steel
Signaller (EU)Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP)Action Plan2025Lead markets; industrial decarbonisation
Signaller (EU)Action Plan for Affordable EnergyAction Plan2025Energy affordability; industrial competitiveness
Signaller (EU)Automotive Action PlanAction Plan2025Transport demand; industrial transition
Signaller (EU)Critical Raw Materials ActRegulation2024Strategic autonomy; industrial resilience
Signaller (EU)EU Sustainable and Smart Mobility StrategyStrategy2020Transport demand; sustainability transition
Signaller (EU)European Hydrogen BankFinancing mechanism2023Industrial decarbonisation financing
Signaller (EU)Industrial Emissions DirectiveDirective2024Industrial decarbonisation; regulation
Signaller (EU)Net-Zero Industry ActRegulation2024Industrial decarbonisation
Signaller (EU)Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS) – Programme information packageProgramme2024Innovation support; steel transition
Signaller (EU)Waste Shipment RegulationRegulation2024Circularity; material efficiency
Signaller (EU)White Paper on DefenceWhite Paper2025Defence/security
Signaller (EU)Draghi Report on EU CompetitivenessStrategic report2025Competitiveness; industrial policy
Signaller (EU)Directive 2009/33/EC on the promotion of clean and energy-efficient road transport vehiclesDirective2024Sustainable procurement; transport demand
Messenger (DE)Steel Action ConceptIndustrial strategy2023Industrial decarbonisation; steel transition
Messenger (DE)National Hydrogen StrategyStrategy2023Steel transition pathways
Messenger (DE)National Circular Economy StrategyStrategy2024Circularity; material efficiency
Messenger (DE)Green Public Procurement Guidelines for BuildingsGuidance2021Procurement governance; buildings
Messenger (DE)Germany National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030National strategy2024National policy translation
Messenger (DE)BMWK Industrial StrategyIndustrial strategy2024Strategic industrial policy
Messenger (DE)2030 Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (FTIP)Infrastructure plan2023Transport demand; infrastructure
Messenger (DE)Procurement Regulations for Defense and Security (VSVgV)Regulation2016Defence procurement
Messenger (DE)System Development Strategy 2024Infrastructure strategy2024Energy systems; infrastructure
Messenger (NL)Government Strategy on HydrogenStrategy2020Steel transition pathways
Messenger (NL)National Circular Economy Programme 2023–2030Programme2023Circularity; material efficiency
Messenger (NL)Tendering Guidelines 4.0Guidance2022Procurement governance
Messenger (NL)National Impactful Procurement PlanStrategy2022Strategic procurement
Messenger (NL)Circular Procurement GuidanceGuidance2021Circular procurement
Messenger (NL)Procurement with Impact StrategyStrategy2022Strategic procurement; sustainability
Messenger (NL)Sustainable Infrastructure Activity BookGuidance2021Infrastructure procurement
Messenger (NL)Joint Letter of Intent on Tata Steel DecarbonisationJoint declaration2023Steel decarbonisation
Messenger (NL)Netherlands National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030National strategy2024National policy translation
Messenger (NL)Mobility Vision 2050Strategy2021Transport transition
Messenger (NL)Vision for a more sustainable basic industry in 2050Industrial strategy2023Industrial decarbonisation
Messenger (SE)Climate Roadmap for a fossil-free and competitive steel industryRoadmap2020Steel transition pathways
Messenger (SE)Circular Economy – Strategy for the transition in SwedenStrategy2021Circularity; material efficiency
Messenger (SE)Environmental Spend AnalysisTechnical report2022Procurement analysis
Messenger (SE)Swedish Public Procurement ActAct2016Procurement governance
Messenger (SE)National Public Procurement StrategyStrategy2017Strategic procurement
Messenger (SE)Hydrogen StrategyStrategy2021Steel transition pathways
Messenger (SE)Climate Roadmap for a competitive and fossil-free mining and mineral industry in SwedenRoadmap2020Industrial decarbonisation
Messenger (SE)Roadmaps Follow-up 2021Monitoring report2021Industrial transition monitoring
Messenger (SE)Sweden National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030National strategy2024National policy translation
Messenger (SE)Smart Industry – a strategy for new industrialisation for SwedenIndustrial strategy2016Strategic industrial policy
Messenger (SE)National Plan for Transport InfrastructureInfrastructure plan2022Transport demand; infrastructure
Messenger (SE)Security and Defence ProcurementGuidance2023Defence procurement
LIBRARYUSE
ggplot2Data visualisation package used to produce all figures (e.g. modality charts, MEAT trends, thematic emphasis plots). Supports layered grammar of graphics and reproducible plotting.
ggwordcloudUsed to visualise term prominence and salience across policy document corpora through word clouds and weighted text visualisations.
dplyrCore data manipulation package used for filtering CAN data, grouping by country/sector/year, and calculating shares (e.g. MEAT and green criteria).
fmsbUsed for specialised statistical visualisations (e.g. radar/spider charts) to compare thematic emphasis across governance levels.
lubridateDate and time handling package used to standardise and aggregate TED Contract Award Notice (CAN) data by year.
pdftoolsUsed to extract machine-readable text from EU and national policy documents (PDF format) prior to dictionary-based analysis.
quantedaCore text analysis framework used for corpus creation, tokenisation, dictionary matching, and document-feature matrix construction for QDA.
quanteda.textstatsExtension of quanteda used for frequency counts, keyness analysis (log-likelihood), and comparative text statistics across document corpora.
readrUsed to import structured datasets (e.g. CSV exports of CAN data and modality outputs) efficiently and reproducibly.
readtextUsed to batch import and structure multiple policy documents into a unified corpus for analysis within quanteda.
stringrString processing package used for keyword detection, dictionary cleaning, and preprocessing of multilingual text.
tidyrUsed for reshaping datasets (e.g. pivoting modality results, term frequencies, and country-level summaries) into analysis-ready formats.
viridisColour scale package used for perceptually uniform and publication-quality visualisations (e.g. modality and thematic plots).
ANALYTICAL CATEGORYDICTIONARY TERMS
Policy outcomes“decarbon*”, “carbon intens*”, “climate neutral*”, “net zero”, “carbon neutral*”, “emission reduction*”, “greenhouse gas”, “ghg reduction*”, “co2 reduction*”, “climate mitigation”, “climate resilien*”, “strategic autonom*”, “resilien*”, “competitiveness”, “industrial competit*”, “energy security”, “security”, “supply security”, “strategic dependenc*”, “strategic value”
Production pathways“hydrogen”, “green hydrogen”, “renewable hydrogen”, “electrolysis”, “direct reduced iron”, “direct reduction”, “dri”, “h2 dri”, “electric arc furnace”, “eaf”, “renewable electricity”, “renewable energy”, “fossil free steel”, “low carbon steel”, “green steel”, “near zero steel”, “clean steel”, “sustainable steel”, “industrial electrification”, “carbon capture”, “ccs”, “ccu”, “zero-carbon steel”
Circularity & material efficiency“circular*”, “recycl*”, “scrap”, “secondary steel”, “material efficiency”, “resource efficiency”, “life cycle”, “lifecycle”, “life cycle assessment”, “lca”, “embodied carbon”, “embodied emissions”, “product carbon footprint”, “pcf”, “environmental product declaration”, “epd”, “durabil*”, “reuse”, “remanufact*”
Efficiency“energy efficiency”, “energy efficient”, “process efficiency”, “efficiency improvement*”, “energy intensity”, “best available technique*”, “bat”
Procurement mechanisms“public procurement”, “green public procurement”, “gpp”, “strategic procurement”, “sustainable procurement”, “most economically advantageous tender”, “meat”, “award criteria”, “award criterion”, “tender”, “contracting authorit*”, “life cycle costing”, “lcc”, “total cost of ownership”, “tco”, “technical specification*”, “minimum requirement*”, “contract performance clause*”, “environmental criteria”, “lead market*”, “procurement criteria”, “procurement”, ”joint procurement”
LANGUAGE“GREEN FLAG” SEARCH TERMS
English“breeam”, “carbon”, “carbon footprint”, “carbon neutral*”, “circular*”, “climate”, “climate change”, “climate neutral*”, “co2”, “durab*”, “ecological”, “eco”, “electrif*”, “electrification”, “emission*”, “environment”, “environmental”, “environmental impact”, “environmental product declaration”, “epd”, “energy”, “energy efficient”, “energy-efficient”, “energy efficien*”, “energy saving”, “fsc”, “geothermal”, “ghg”, “green”, “greenhouse gas*”, “heat pump*”, “iso 14001”, “iso14001”, “emas”, “lca”, “lcc”, “lead”, “leed”, “life cycle”, “life cycle assessment”, “life cycle costing”, “lifecycle”, “low impact”, “material efficien*”, “net zero”, “net-zero”, “pcf”, “pefc”, “product carbon footprint”, “recycl*”, “recycled”, “recyclable”, “remanufact*”, “renewable*”, “resource efficien*”, “reuse”, “reused”, “sustainab*”, “sustainability”, “sustainable”, “waste”, “waste management”, “waste reduction”, “whole life carbon”, “wlc”, “wind”, “solar”, “bioenergy”
German“abfall*”, “co2”, “emission*”, “energie”, “energieeffizienz*”, “energieeffizient*”, “energiespar*”, “erneuerbar*”, “erneuerbare”, “fsc”, “iso 14001”, “iso14001”, “emas”, “klima*”, “klimawandel”, “klimaneutral*”, “kohlendioxid”, “kreislauf*”, “lebenszyklus*”, “lebenszykluskalkulation*”, “lebenszykluskosten*”, “materialeffizienz*”, “nachhalt*”, “net-zero”, “netto null”, “okobilanz*”, “oekobilanz*”, “pefc”, “pcf”, “produkt carbon footprint”, “recycl*”, “ressourceneffizienz*”, “treibhausgas*”, “umwelt*”, “umweltfreund*”, “umweltproduktdeklaration*”, “wiederverwend*”, “wiederverwertung”
Dutch“afval*”, “broeikasgas*”, “circulair*”, “co2”, “duurzaam*”, “duurzame energie”, “emissie*”, “energie”, “energie efficient”, “energie-efficient*”, “energiebesparing*”, “epd”, “fsc”, “grondstoff*”, “hergebruik*”, “hernieuwbaar*”, “iso 14001”, “iso14001”, “emas”, “klimaat*”, “klimaatneutraal*”, “klimaatverandering”, “koolstof”, “kringloop*”, “lca”, “lcc”, “levenscyclus*”, “levenscycluskosten*”, “materiaal efficient*”, “materiaalefficient*”, “milieu*”, “milieuproductverklaring*”, “milieuvriend*”, “net-zero”, “netto nul”, “pcf”, “pefc”, “product carbon footprint”, “recycl*”, “resource”
Swedish“aterbruk*”, “atervinn*”, “cirkulär*”, “cirkular*”, “co2”, “energi”, “energieffektiv*”, “energisnål*”, “epd”, “fornybar*”, “förnybar*”, “förnybara”, “hallbar*”, “hållbar*”, “hållbarhet”, “koldioxid”, “klimat*”, “klimatpåverkan”, “klimatneutral”, “livscykel*”, “livscykelkostnad*”, “lca”, “materialeffektiv*”, “miljö”, “miljöbyggnad”, “miljöcertifier*”, “miljökrav”, “miljömässig”, “miljövänlig”, “miljovarudeklaration”, “miljo”, “netto noll”, “nordic swan”, “resurseffektiv*”, “svanen”, “utsläpp*”
Language: English
Page range: 1 - 1
Submitted on: Apr 10, 2026
Accepted on: Jul 13, 2026
Published on: Jul 23, 2026
Published by: European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2026 Natalie Gravett-Foyn, Carl Dalhammar, published by European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.