Graph 1
Total number of homicides and armed fights 1985 – 2014. Source: (1980–2008) DANE life statistics, (2009–2014) INML, Police SIJIN System, Attorney General’s Office CTI System. Constructed by the authors.
Table 1
Demobilized people, deaths, and man-weapon ratio in demobilizations relevant to Medellín. Source: (Giraldo-Ramírez and Mesa 2013: 226)
| Year | Group | Demobilized people | Deaths | Deaths/ demobilized people | Man-weapon ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | M-19 | 1211 | 108 | 8.9 | 0.74 |
| 1990 | EPL | 3790 | 316 | 8.3 | 0.53 |
| 1994 | CRS | 1041 | 75 | 7.2 | 0.42 |
| 1994 | MP | 843 | 187 | 22.2 | 0.70 |
| 1997 | MIR-COAR | 185 | 12 | 6.5 | 0.92 |
| 2003 | BCN | 868 | 105 | 12.1 | 0.57 |
| 1990–1994 | Collective | 4715 | 736 | 15.6 | 0.38 |
| 1990–1997 | All | 10530 | 839 | 8 | |
| 2003–2006 | Collective | 31671 | 1734 | 5.5 | 0.57 |
[i] Information about demobilized people and deaths, by group and individually, between 1989 and 1997, comes from the Ministry of Justice’s Transitional Justice Office.
Information about the man-weapon ratio in the collective demobilizations comes from Vranckx et al 2009.
Information about demobilized people and deaths between 2003 and 2006 is from the OAS 2011.
Calculations about deaths / demobilized people and man-weapon ratios for the EPL, CRS, MP, and MIR-COAR are our own and are based on Ministry of Justice information.
Information about the BCN comes from the SIR (Reintegration Information System).
The descriptor ‘All’ indicates the total of collective and individual demobilizations in Colombia between 1989 and 1997, consolidated by the Ministry of Justice.
Graph 2
Homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants 1998–2014. Source: Colombian National Police SIJIN. Constructed by authors, with data systematized from the SISC.
Table 2
Test of structural change for the homicide rate.
| Chow Breakpoint Test: 1985 2003 | ||||
| Null Hypothesis: No breaks at specified breakpoints | ||||
| Varying regressors: All equation variables | ||||
| Equation Sample: 1975 2012 | ||||
| F-statistic | 8.551299 | Prob. F(6,29) | 0.0000 | |
| Log likelihood ratio | 38.70569 | Prob. Chi-Square(6) | 0.0000 | |
| Wald Statistic | 51.30779 | Prob. Chi-Square(6) | 0.0000 | |
| Dependent Variable: TM | ||||
| Method: Least Squares | ||||
| Date: 03/10/14 Time: 12:29 | ||||
| Sample: 1975 2012 | ||||
| Included observations: 38 | ||||
| Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | |
| C | 48.30000 | 18.02772 | 2.679208 | 0.0112 |
| D85 | 171.5333 | 22.48451 | 7.628955 | 0.0000 |
| D2003 | –158.9333 | 22.48451 | –7.068569 | 0.0000 |
Map 1
Homicide polygons 2003–2013. Source: SISC 2014 Concept by Jorge Giraldo.
Graph 3
Car Thefts 2003–2014. Source: Colombian National Police SIJIN. Constructed by authors with data systematized from the SISC.