Peace in Patani? The Prospect of a Settlement in Southern Thailand

The Kingdom of Patani was formally incorporated into the Kingdom of Siam a little over 100 years ago and has been in varying states of rebellion since then. This resistance has at times had a violent character, as it does right now, but has also involved a resilient attachment to various aspects of the local identity, such as the religion, language, and local historic narrative. While the right of the inhabitants of the area to legally claim self-determination under international law is tenuous, a broader understanding of self-determination may be able to support the concept of a regional autonomy arrangement within the Thai state. Prima facie, an autonomy arrangement has the potential to address many of the grievances of the Malay-Muslim community in the Patani region. There are also now some positive Southeast Asian examples of autonomy solutions made under similar circumstances, particularly Aceh and Mindanao. This possibility has entered mainstream political discussion in Thailand in recent years. However, credible and committed leadership would be needed from both sides in order for some kind of negotiated settlement to be agreed upon and implemented. Talks between an insurgent group and the Thai government began in 2013. However, these have highlighted significant challenges that would surround any peace process, particularly the dispersed nature of the insurgency.