Figure 1
Map of the study region (West Asia, grey box) with locations of Late Epipalaeolithic and Pre-Pottery Neolithic archaeobotanical assemblages.
Table 1
Summary of species modelled.
| TAXON | OCCURRENCES | MODEL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCH. | CUR. | ACC. | ROC-AUC | SENS. CUR. | SENS. ARCH. | |
| Aegilops crassa | 4 | 223 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.26 | 0.00 |
| Aegilops speltoides | 0 | 448 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.77 | — |
| Aegilops tauschii | 0 | 1257 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.84 | — |
| Aizoanthemopsis hispanica1 | 4 | 762 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.50 |
| Ammi majus | 4 | 10337 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.00 |
| Androsace maxima | 17 | 4946 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Arenaria serpyllifolia | 3 | 101617 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnebia decumbens | 21 | 617 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.59 | 0.05 |
| Arnebia linearifolia | 13 | 239 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.00 |
| Atriplex prostrata | 4 | 80186 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
| Avena sterilis | 5 | 15906 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.40 |
| Bassia arabica | 4 | 262 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 0.00 |
| Bolboschoenus glaucus | 5 | 418 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| Bolboschoenus maritimus2 | 31 | 53813 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
| Brachypodium distachyon | 5 | 13800 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.20 |
| Bromus sterilis | 3 | 89764 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Buglossoides arvensis | 23 | 23004 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.09 |
| Buglossoides tenuiflora | 26 | 399 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.04 |
| Capparis spinosa | 4 | 8617 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.00 |
| Carex divisa | 9 | 7400 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.00 |
| Chenopodium album | 5 | 184412 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Cicer reticulatum3 | 3 | 52 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Citrullus colocynthis | 4 | 1823 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.71 | 0.00 |
| Crithopsis delileana | 3 | 430 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.00 |
| Euclidium syriacum | 3 | 338 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.31 | 0.00 |
| Ficus carica | 8 | 64440 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.38 |
| Fumaria densiflora | 4 | 3704 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.00 |
| Gypsophila elegans | 3 | 1613 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.83 | 0.00 |
| Gypsophila pilosa | 5 | 348 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.69 | 0.00 |
| Gypsophila vaccaria4 | 8 | 1177 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.69 | 0.00 |
| Henrardia pubescens | 3 | 15 | — | — | — | — |
| Hordeum bulbosum | 4 | 4134 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| Hordeum murinum | 5 | 74770 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Hordeum spontaneum6 | 76 | 3098 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.21 |
| Lathyrus aphaca | 4 | 18652 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.00 |
| Lathyrus oleraceus7 | 8 | 819 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.78 | 0.00 |
| Lathyrus sativus | 4 | 2120 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.77 | 0.00 |
| Lepidium perfoliatum | 3 | 2764 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.00 |
| Linum bienne8 | 14 | 12824 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.07 |
| Lolium rigidum | 5 | 10620 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.00 |
| Lolium temulentum | 3 | 4463 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| Medicago radiata | 20 | 834 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Phalaris paradoxa | 3 | 3287 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| Phragmites australis | 4 | 373066 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Pistacia atlantica | 6 | 2419 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.33 |
| Poa bulbosa | 5 | 30769 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.20 |
| Polygonum arenarium9 | 7 | 255 | — | — | — | — |
| Polygonum corrigioloides | 6 | 125 | — | — | — | — |
| Prosopis farcta | 5 | 2512 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.00 |
| Rumex pulcher | 6 | 17606 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
| Salsola kali | 6 | 14701 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
| Salvia absconditiflora10 | 3 | 128 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.00 |
| Secale cereale | 4 | 14813 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.00 |
| Secale strictum11 | 3 | 162 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.62 | 0.00 |
| Suaeda fruticosa | 3 | 577 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.00 |
| Taeniatherum caput-medusae | 4 | 1969 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Triticum aestivum12 | 4 | 217 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Triticum durum | 3 | 65 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Triticum monococcum13 | 47 | 870 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.80 | 0.04 |
| Triticum turgidum14 | 53 | 345 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Triticum urartu | 0 | 420 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.95 | — |
| Verbena officinalis | 3 | 89655 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Vicia ervilia | 26 | 1924 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.27 |
| Vicia faba | 7 | 42644 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.29 |
| Vicia narbonensis15 | 3 | 2826 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.33 |
| Vicia orientalis16 | 16 | 41 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Vitis sylvestris | 3 | 63 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Zygophyllum fabago | 3 | 3554 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
[i] 1Including Aizoon hispanicum.
2Including Scirpus maritimus.
3Including Cicer arietinum.
4Including Vaccaria pyramidata.
5Excluded from modelling due to sample size.
6Including Hordeum vulgare.
7Including Pisum sativum and Pisum elatius.
8Including Linum usitatissimum.
9Including Polygonum venantianum.
10Including Salvia cryptantha.
11Including Secale montanum.
12Including Triticum spelta and Triticum aestivocompactum.
13Including Triticum boeoticum.
14Including Triticum aestivum, Triticum dicoccum, and Triticum dicoccoides.
15Including Vicia narbonense.
16Including Lens culinaris and Lens orientalis.
Figure 2
Georeferenced occurrence records from West Eurasia used to train models (N = 1412083). Inset, right: prediction region (West Asia).
Figure 3
Model sensitivity by number of training occurrences.
Figure 4
Distribution of predicted species niche size by period (logarithmic scale). Dashed lines indicate the median niche size.
Figure 5
Predicted species richness (sum of predicted ranges) by period.
Figure 6
Predicted palaeodistribution of wild chickpea and rye in the Early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka).
Figure 7
Predicted palaeodistribution of flax, pistachio and clubrush in the Early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka).
Figure 8
Predicted palaeodistribution of wild barleys.
Figure 9
Combined predicted palaeodistributions of bread wheat progenitors.
Figure 10
Summary of hindcasting performance of models in relation to model performance and available archaeological test data.