Figure 1
General Flowchart of Analytic Plan.
Note: Three colors represent different groups identified by clustering.
Figure 2
Learning Patterns Identified by Clustering.
Note: A) Scatter plot of participant’s optimal knot location (x axis) and initial training gain (slope1; y axis) as a function of the three learning clusters. B) Average learning trajectories of the three clusters across the 10 training sessions. Error bars represent ±1 standard error of the mean.
Table 1
Confusion Matrix of Binary Tree Model Performance on Cross Validation Set.
| MODEL1 (N = 377) | PREDICTED CLASS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| UNICORN | NON-UNICORN | ||
| True class | Unicorn | 28 (.88) | 4 (.12) |
| Non-Unicorn | 62 (.24) | 283 (.82) | |
| MODEL2 (N = 345) | TORTOISE | HARE | |
| True class | Tortoise | 114 (.64) | 63 (.37) |
| Hare | 62 (.36) | 106 (.63) | |
Table 2
Confusion Matrix of Binary Tree Model Performance on Test Set.
| MODEL1 (N = 95) | PREDICTED CLASS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| UNICORN | NON-UNICORN | ||
| True class | Unicorn | 5 (.63) | 3 (.37) |
| Non-Unicorn | 14 (.16) | 73 (.84) | |
| MODEL 2 (N = 76) | TORTOISE | HARE | |
| True class | Tortoise | 21 (.57) | 16 (.43) |
| Hare | 14 (.39) | 22 (.61) | |
| Unicorn | 2 (.67) | 1 (.33) | |
Figure 3
Predictor Importance by Calculating the SHAP Value.
Note: The x-axis represents the SHAP value; The y-axis represents the predictors. Each dot represents each participant who is correctly predicted by our model (including both hitting a particular class and correctly rejecting the class), the color of the dot represents a certain predictor’s value (red: higher value, blue: lower value). A. Each predictor’s SHAP value in predicting the unicorn group (model 1) ranking by predictor importance. B. Each predictor’s SHAP value in predicting the tortoise group (model 2) ranking by predictor importance.
Figure 4
Scatter Plots of Predictor Values (x axis) and SHAP Values (y axis).
Note: All predictor values were transformed to z scores. The top two important predictors in predicting unicorns (green) versus non-unicorns (gray) (Figure 4A) and tortoises (orange) versus hares (purple) (Figure 4B) are shown.