Figure 1
Task Behavior for Clinical and Non-Clinical Groups. (A) Accuracy by clinical group for each bead-ratio condition. (B) Mean probability estimates before each bead draw by clinical group across correct trials in the 90:10 bead-ratio condition. (C) Mean probability estimates for before (draw 0; d = 0) and after (draw 1; d = 1) the first bead draw by clinical group across bead-ratio conditions. (D) Mean probability estimates at guess (i.e., probability estimate provided immediately before guessing the identity of the jar) by clinical group across bead-ratio conditions.
Figure 2
Draws-to-Decision Behavior for Clinical and Non-Clinical Groups. (A) Mean draws-to-decision across bead-ratio conditions for individual participants and (B) averaged by clinical group. (C) Correlation of mean draws-to-decision in the 90:10 bead-ratio condition and trait anxiety.
Figure 3
Model-Based Analyses. (A) Correlation of mean draws-to-decision in the 90:10 bead-ratio condition with key computational parameters from potential explanatory models and (B) Csub(0.9) specifically. (C) Correlation of trait anxiety with key computational parameters from potential explanatory models and (D) Csub(0.9) specifically.
Table 2
Interparameter Correlations. Interparameter correlations for (A) belief-updating model, (B) value-based decision-making model, and (C) between models.
| A | ω2(0.6) | ω2(0.75) | ω2(0.90) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| r (95%CI) | p | r (95%CI) | p | r (95%CI) | p | |
| ω1 | –0.15 | 0.24 | –0.05 | 0.70 | 0.01 | 0.93 |
| (–0.39 – 0.11) | (–0.30 – 0.21) | (–0.25 – 0.27) | ||||
| B | Csub(0.6) | Csub(0.75) | Csub(0.9) | |||
| r (95%CI) | p | r (95%CI) | p | r (95%CI) | p | |
| γ | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| (–0.08 – 0.42) | (–0.09 – 0.41) | (–0.06 – 0.44) | ||||
| C | Csub(0.6) | Csub(0.75) | Csub(0.9) | |||
| r (95%CI) | p | r (95%CI) | p | r (95%CI) | p | |
| ω1 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.48 | 0.001 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| (–0.10 – 0.40) | (0.25 – 0.67) | (–0.09 – 0.41) | ||||
| ω2(0.6) | 0.13 | 0.31 | ||||
| (–0.12 – 0.38) | ||||||
| ω2(0.75) | 0.35 | 0.008 | ||||
| (0.09 – 0.55) | ||||||
| ω2(0.90) | 0.39 | 0.002 | ||||
| (0.14 – 0.58) | ||||||
Figure 4
Mean Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and Protected Exceedance Probability for Variants of the Belief-Updating Model.
Table 1
Correlations. Correlation of Csub parameters for each bead-ratio condition and the shared Csub parameter across bead-ratio conditions with trait anxiety and mean draws-to-decision in the respective bead-ratio condition, as well as partial correlations (“adjusted”) accounting for shared variance between Csub and inverse temperature γ parameters.
| Csub(0.6) | Csub(0.75) | Csub(0.9) | shared Csub | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| r | p | r | p | r | p | r | p | |
| Trait Anxiety | –0.21 | 0.054 | –0.35 | 0.004 | –0.48 | <0.001 | –0.12 | 0.28 |
| Trait Anxiety, adjusted | –0.23 | 0.047 | –0.36 | 0.003 | –0.48 | <0.001 | –0.35 | 0.004 |
| Mean DTD(0.6) | –0.56 | <0.001 | –0.54 | <0.001 | ||||
| Mean DTD(0.6), adjusted | –0.65 | <0.001 | –0.54 | <0.001 | ||||
| Mean DTD(0.75) | –0.28 | 0.02 | –0.43 | <0.001 | ||||
| Mean DTD(0.6), adjusted | –0.39 | 0.002 | –0.47 | <0.001 | ||||
| Mean DTD(0.9) | –0.75 | <0.001 | –0.26 | 0.02 | ||||
| Mean DTD(0.9), adjusted | –0.76 | <0.001 | –0.56 | <0.001 | ||||
[i] Note: DTD = draws-to-decision.