Abstract
A localised, data-driven approach is presented for the rapid and scalable deployment of heat pumps in high-density areas. This novel hyper-local methodology evaluates the technical feasibility and readiness of dwellings for heat pump deployment. The local area energy mapping (LEMAP) approach integrates diverse datasets, including energy use, building characteristics, socio-economics, digital engagement and local electricity distribution. The study of dwellings (n = 865) in a suburban area of Oxford, UK, was conducted in three stages: local grid loading, technical suitability and household capability. To bridge the gap between technical potential and practical adoption, a capability assessment framework was applied, examining the social, digital and financial readiness of heat pump suitable, ready and priority dwellings. Over 600 dwellings (71%) were technically suitable for heat pumps, with 60% of these households being affluent, while 33% were classified as fuel poor. Notably, households with high financial and social capabilities often had lower digital capabilities, suggesting a need for digital literacy support to enable the effective adoption of smart heat pump technologies. Although many dwellings were technically suitable, only a small proportion demonstrated strong capabilities across all three dimensions, highlighting the importance of targeted interventions to ensure successful heat pump deployment.
Policy relevance
Heat pumps play a crucial role in strategies to decarbonise residential heating and achieve its legally binding net zero target. The local area energy planning tool presented here improves the precision of energy planning and fosters collaboration between local authorities, electricity network operators and communities. By integrating technical, socio-economic and demographic data, the tool connects policy objectives with dwelling-specific decisions, enabling a more comprehensive approach to heat pump deployment. The findings from this research have already been put into practice by the local council and its partners in the Clean Heat Streets project to identify suitable properties and streamline heat pump installation. As a result, over 100 in-home consultations and 30 heat pump installations have been carried out to date. The study provides actionable insights for replicating place-based heat pump deployment strategies in other regions, supporting the transition of building stock towards net zero targets.