Fig. 1.

Differences in performance of winners and finalists as well as PG/OG performance ratio in sport classes in sprints
| Sport classes | 100% 1992 PG | PG/OG performance ratio | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st place | 1st−8th places | 1st place | 1st −8th places | |||||||
| 2004 | 2016 | 2004 | 2016 | 1992 | 2004 | 2016 | 1992 | 2004 | 2016 | |
| 100 m | ||||||||||
| T13 | 2.92 | 5.92 | 4.04 | 6.40 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.91 |
| T38 | 5.96 | 11.17 | 7.43 | 11.44 | 0.82 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| T42 | –2.29 | –0.25 | 10.52 | 19.55 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| T44 | 4.73 | 7.05 | 8.51 | 13.13 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| T46/47 | –2.61 | 1.40 | 3.04 | 5.26 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.91 |
| T54 | 3.27 | 5.25 | 3.59 | 5.56 | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| OA | 1.10 | 1.51 | 1.70 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 200 m | ||||||||||
| T13 | 1.56 | 3.60 | 2.62 | 5.58 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.90 |
| T38 | 5.21 | 7.40 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.85 | ||||
| T42 | –5.48 | 5.76 | 15.15 | 22.29 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.85 | 0.64 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| T44 | 4.77 | 8.71 | 12.92 | 17.80 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.92 |
| T46/47 | –2.66 | 2.26 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | ||||
| T54 | 3.96 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.78 | |||||
| OA | 2.89 | 2.94 | 2.26 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 400 m | ||||||||||
| T13 | –0.04 | 5.25 | 0.86 | 11.97 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| T38 | 6.76 | 10.30 | 8.58 | 10.13 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| T44 | 12.93 | 21.50 | 12.60 | 20.68 | 0.74 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| T46/47 | 2.65 | 1.99 | 2.94 | 5.97 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| T54 | 4.83 | 6.44 | 6.31 | 8.35 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| OA | –1.15 | 1.08 | –0.44 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Competition density in sprint events at the Olympic and Paralympic Games in 1992, 2004 and 2016 (in %)
| Event | Games | Sport classes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T13 | T38 | T42 | T44 | T46/47 | T54 | OA | ||
| 100 m | 1992 | 9.76 | 5.6 | 1.49 | 4.42 | 5.97 | 10.81 | 26.67 |
| 2004 | 17.07 | 8.08 | 1.48 | 5.33 | 9.37 | 9.2 | 28 | |
| 2016 | 9.46 | 6.48 | 13.56 | 15.38 | 11.43 | 9.88 | 32 | |
| 200 m | 1992 | 3.7 | 3.48 | 0.43 | 1.42 | 3.04 | 3.77 | 10.29 |
| 2004 | 5.38 | 5.23 | 3.41 | 4.21 | 6.06 | 6.78 | 8.24 | |
| 2016 | 10.87 | 2.43 | 2.72 | 12.31 | ||||
| 400 m | 1992 | 0.31 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 1.48 | 1.83 | 4.76 | |
| 2004 | 0.3 | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.58 | 4.12 | 5.16 | ||
| 2016 | 2.18 | 1.43 | 0.76 | 4.69 | 7.69 | 5.06 | ||
Prediction of performance in men’s sprints at 2021 PG in selected sport classes – potential winners and finalists
| Class | 2016 PG 1st place | 2016 PG avr_final | Prediction | –95.0%CI | +95.0%CI | R2 | F(1, 5) | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 m | ||||||||
| T13 | 10.64 | 10.96 | 10.81 | 10.68 | 10.94 | 0.67 | 88.56 | 0.0000 |
| T38 | 10.74 | 11.29 | 10.90 | 10.66 | 11.14 | 0.71 | 105.10 | 0.0000 |
| T42 | 12.26 | 12.55 | 11.78 | 11.12 | 12.43 | 0.57 | 57.10 | 0.0000 |
| T44 | 10.81 | 11.11 | 10.69 | 10.42 | 10.96 | 0.71 | 115.12 | 0.0000 |
| T46/47 | 10.57 | 10.98 | 11.06 | 10.88 | 11.23 | 0.29 | 17.79 | 0.0001 |
| T54 | 13.90 | 14.31 | 14.12 | 13.94 | 14.29 | 0.56 | 50.56 | 0.0000 |
| OA | 9.81 | 9.94 | 9.83 | 9.75 | 9.90 | 0.49 | 41.91 | 0.0000 |
| 200 m | ||||||||
| T13 | 22.23 | 22.48 | 21.79 | 21.46 | 22.13 | 0.64 | 73.34 | 0.0000 |
| T38 | 21.52 | 20.93 | 22.11 | 0.74 | 105.04 | 0.0000 | ||
| T42 | 23.39 | 24.98 | 23.39 | 21.99 | 24.78 | 0.69 | 72.40 | 0.0000 |
| T44 | 21.06 | 21.85 | 21.25 | 20.43 | 22.08 | 0.62 | 74.77 | 0.0000 |
| T46/47 | 22.08 | 21.65 | 22.51 | 0.32 | 18.01 | 0.0001 | ||
| T54 | 23.79 | 22.98 | 24.59 | 0.65 | 45.51 | 0.0000 | ||
| OA | 19.78 | 20.13 | 20.02 | 19.86 | 20.18 | 0.25 | 14.16 | 0.0005 |
| 400 m | ||||||||
| T13 | 47.15 | 48.84 | 48.64 | 47.62 | 49.66 | 0.46 | 36.47 | 0.0000 |
| T38 | 49.46 | 52.49 | 51.56 | 49.49 | 53.63 | 0.27 | 15.31 | 0.0003 |
| T42 | ||||||||
| T44 | 46.20 | 49.78 | 49.57 | 47.30 | 51.84 | 0.33 | 20.03 | 0.0001 |
| T46/47 | 48.79 | 49.22 | 48.81 | 46.75 | 50.87 | 0.22 | 11.59 | 0.0015 |
| T54 | 46.65 | 47.25 | 46.23 | 45.43 | 47.04 | 0.60 | 57.91 | 0.0000 |
| OA | 43.03 | 44.04 | 44.57 | 44.31 | 44.84 | 0.03 | 1.51 | 0.2259 |